Lately in the comments there’s been quite a bit of discussion of Trump’s mistakes. Did Trump make many—or any—mistakes? Were the mistakes of his administration truly Trump’s own mistakes or were they all, or mostly, a result of betrayal? Which Trump mistakes could have been avoided and which had the most important consequences? Should Trump fess up to any of his missteps, or just tough it out with his stock meme of ‘It never would have happened if I had still been president’? Is he, perhaps, biding his time before addressing some of these issues? You get the picture.
This morning Will Schryver, whose commentary I have a high regard for in general, republished an incisive examination of one of Trump’s most consequential mistakes—although one that is little discussed in the US. That would be his majorly misguided assassination of the Iranian general Qasem Soleimani. This mistake is undoubtedly a significant factor driving events in the Middle East, which in turn has exposed US weaknesses and overstretched our military capabilities. I’ll leave that discussion to Schryver, below, but one of the most frustrating aspects of this is that Trump initially did the right thing. What I mean is this.
When Iran shot down one of our drones that had entered its air space, Trump was immediately put under enormous pressure by the usual knuckleheads—Neocons, Empire Firsters, Zionists—to launch a pretty major attack against Iran for defending itself. Trump rightly resisted all the pressure. My guess is that that incident played into his agreement to the assassination of Soleimani. My guess is that the same combination of the usual suspects—including the Kushners, Jared and Ivanka—pressured Trump into this criminal decision. A worse possibility is that Trump thought this criminal act would placate the Neocons and win their friendship.
I’m not suggesting that Trump is stupid. Far from it. In fact, the Middle East mess has deep roots. It certainly has been rendered intractable for the US by the surrender of American sovereignty to the Israel Lobby, which obeys the policies set by Israel. That is a disservice to the American people—not to say, a betrayal. Over the decades this relationship has led us ever deeper into unjust and unwise policies. Not to say we haven’t shown the ability to do this all on our own. Since the Israel Lobby removed HWBush, attempts by US presidents to resist Israel’s demands have been pretty feeble. Further, the US military has been largely coopted/recruited by the Israelis intel services—notoriously perhaps the most aggressive intel services when it comes to recruiting Americans. If you don’t believe me, listen to some of the older videos of guys like Macgregor, Davis, Ritter, and others struggling to come to grips with the reality of the conduct of their “friends”. Obama and Trump both attempted to draw a line in Syria with regard to US involvement. They were ignored by the US military and whoever our military does take orders from, and—discretion being the better part of valor—both Obama and Trump decided not to push the issue.
What I’m saying is that Trump’s big mistake came after decades of precedent that led up to it. However, while the US frittered away its sovereignty, the world has been changing. As Schryver explains, Trump’s mistake led us into a very dangerous new phase. The Israel Lobby, of course, has continued us down that path under Zhou. It’s worth noting that the big winner to come out of our destruction of Iraq has been Iran. Back then, the Israel Lobby was convinced, shortsightedly as always, that Iraq and Saddam were the big threat. Neocons and Zionists are not people who think strategically. Very much for the worse, they hold our future in their hands.
The first set of tweets date back to January 28, after the missile attack on our base in Jordan/Syria. Then there’s a brief exchange re Houthi drone attacks.
Will Schryver @imetatronink
Trump Talking Tough
The suggestion that somehow Iran was weakened over the course of the Trump presidency is total nonsense.
It is a rank inversion of the truth.
The trajectory of the growth of Iranian power — both soft and hard — has been one of consistent ascent dating back to the 1990s. Over the past decade it has gone almost parabolic.
As for Trump's dealings with Iran, the historical record clearly attests not American triumphs, but a series of unprecedented humiliations.
In 2019, using a domestically produced S-300 variant, Iran shot down a USAF RQ-4A surveillance drone — an aircraft many believed to be impregnable to Iranian air defenses.
In 2020, Trump ordered the drone-launched missile assassination of Iranian General Qasem Soleimani in Baghdad. In response, Iran launched the largest, most distant, most potent, and most impressively accurate ballistic missile strike ever executed against US forces — precisely delivering well over a dozen 500kg warheads on multiple discrete targets.
In neither instance did the Trump administration have a response. Indeed, it was apparent to many observers that the Pentagon was stunned by these displays of Iranian capability.
I’ll take issue, somewhat, with that statement. After the drone downing the national security—at least arguably, I have no inside sources—did believe they had a response. It was stupid, but they arguably did believe it. Trump, to his credit, decided against any crazy response at that time.
No matter who is declared President of the United States after the upcoming 2024 election, it will have zero effect in terms of strengthening the American position in the region. And all of the increasingly evident US weaknesses will not only remain, but grow progressively more vulnerable.
5:49 PM · Jan 28, 2024
James Jude @Jimmyjude13
Jan 28
Trump killed one of their top generals and their response was weak, it achieved nothing
Will Schryver @imetatronink
I adamantly disagree.
They gave the US a several hour advance warning, and told them to get their people out. And then they launched about 20 ballistic missiles from over 1000km away. Those missiles blew right through US air defenses and over a dozen targeted clearly intentional objectives inside the Ayn al-Asad air base — all with 5m - 10m accuracy.
It was an extremely impressive display of precision firepower that delivered an explicit message: we can hit you hard anywhere we want to, all the way to the Mediterranean, the Red Sea, and the Arabian Sea.
That single strike permanently altered the entire calculus of a putative war against Iran.
I will be utterly shocked if the US strikes Iran in response to this latest attack against a US base. But if they do, the Iranians won't be giving advance warning of their counterstrikes.
6:18 PM · Jan 28, 2024
James Jude @Jimmyjude13
Jan 28
I hear ya dude but is it really that impressive to have your top general taken out and then call your adversary in advance of your response and give them the coordinates of the stikes. Seriously, who is afraid of who in that situation?
Will Schryver @imetatronink
The assassination of Soleimani was a dirty deed done dirt cheap. Beginning with what I and many others consider an extremely impressive display of firepower and accuracy in the immediate aftermath — a potent "shot across the bow" — it then set in motion a series of events that have brought us to this point: largely effected and coordinated by Iran, the US is in the process of being driven out of the region altogether, leaving Iran and its allies as the dominant power in the region.
Iran has effectively become the gatekeeper of the Persian Gulf and the Red Sea — two of the most strategically important shipping lanes on the planet.
Mark McDaniel @MarkSMcDaniel
Jan 28
According to the Washington Post neither a Patriot or THAAD battery were present to defend either location. I think the statement that the missiles “blew through US air defenses” is misleading.
Will Schryver @imetatronink
Jan 28
You are free to believe one of the largest and most important US bases in the region was completely absent of US air defenses — and despite having received several hours advance notice.
The simple fact is that US air defenses are effectively useless against ballistic missiles.
******
U.S. Central Command
@CENTCOM
US and Coalition Defeat Houthi Attack in Red Sea Area
Following further engagements through the morning, U.S. and Coalition forces downed a total of at least 28 uncrewed aerial vehicles between 4:00 a.m. and 8:20 a.m. (Sanaa time) on Mar. 9. No U.S. or Coalition Navy vessels were damaged in the attack and there were also no reports by commercial ships of damage.
11:03 AM · Mar 9, 2024
Will Schryver @imetatronink
#TheBigAttrition continues.
#OperationWhackAMole has apparently failed to meaningfully deplete Yemeni stores of attack drones.
Sure, no US warships were hit. But at what expense to underlying US munition stockpiles?
And at what point will this attrition produce vulnerability?
Look, we’ll have a choice in November—but we don’t really have a say in how the terms of that choice are framed. I presume that Trump will be one of the terms in that choice. As a nation we face many serious problems, both foreign and domestic. I do believe that Trump is a smart guy. As such, whether he admits it or not, we need to consider whether he has learned from his mistakes as well as from the betrayals that were perpetrated against him. I’d like some assurance from Trump in that regard. Failing that, we have to make our own minds up.
Was the Covid vax Trump's biggest mistake?
https://www.zerohedge.com/political/trump-clearly-hasnt-learned-his-covid-era-mistakes-rfk-jr-says
Is Trump compounding the mistake by not admitting it?
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Wqm9Yl1gGEY
As most readers here know, Jeffrey Sachs has been an outspoken critic of the Neocon foreign policy our country has followed at least since the Clinton Administration and which the Biden Administration is following and, as such, Sachs is a strong critic of our current misadventures in Ukraine and the Middle East. Perhaps less known is Sach's research and analysis of JFK's political efforts in 1963, following the Cuban Missile Crisis, to establish a ground breaking lasting peace with the Soviet Union. Sachs makes the case In his book, To Move the World: JFK's Quest for Peace, and in this interview with Chris Hedges.
For those of us trying to gain a comprehensive understanding of how we have ended up where we are today this is a most interesting watch. Highly recommended.