There’s a new spate of articles out that document Trump’s disastrous misuse of the US military—and, of course, the effect that is having on US standing in the world, not least due to the harm to US finances. Obviously, there’s more to this than just Trump’s crazy war on Iran, but Trump is CinC and, as such, is responsible for launching a huge, predictably disastrous, war of choice that has brought all these factors together into something like a perfect storm of destruction. It cannot be emphasized too much in this regard: This was a war of choice. Yes, it may have been part of a Jewish Nationalist fantasy to dominate the world, but it was ultimately Trump’s choice.
We’ve all seen the articles about the disastrous expenditure of standoff munitions—munitions that the US can’t do without in anything resembling a war against a modernish military. Like Russia’s or China’s or like … Iran’s. By the way, one of those standoff munitions is probably be examined by a team of Iranian, Russian, and Chinese engineers even now:
Megatron @Megatron_ron
Aug 26
NEW: Iran plans to reverse-engineer US stealth JASSM Cruise Missile - Tabnak reports
A largely Intact JASSM Cruise Missile that failed to explode was discovered and seized by the Iranian army during the war
Trump’s foolish adventure has undoubtedly proved to be an intel windfall for core BRICS.
We also know about the disastrous expenditure of missile “interceptors”. That’s the current focus. For example:
Two serving officials warn U.S. Patriot interceptor stocks in Europe are “beyond critical” after Operation Epic Fury drained the arsenal — leaving NATO’s eastern flank exposed to a Russian ballistic missile strike it may be unable to blunt.
These articles come as Russia is once again openly suggesting that it could strike at NATO countries that are attacking Russia.
Megatron @Megatron_ron
Aug 27
 U.S. Patriot interceptor stockpiles in Europe are so low that in the event of a Russian ballistic missile attack on a military headquarters in Europe, NATO would be in a same position as Ukraine and be forced ‘to take punch after punch in the mouth - AP
This goes along with reports that the core of US containment facilities against Iran have been systematically destroyed—to the tune of many billions of dollars worth of all sorts of radars and intel facilities in the Persian Gulf region. The US military has been so blinded that it has been reduced to massive overuse of AWACS planes to substitute for the destruction of infrastructure—which will only be replaced if China agrees to send refined rare earths for that purpose. Simplicius’ latest, The True Extent of Fallout From US’s Defeat in Iran Is Still Being Processed, covers much of this in detail. I’ll quote from some of the sources, but I highly recommend Simplicius’ commentary as well.
The Guardian goes into the financial aspects of all this:
Exclusive: Experts and former officials say accounts are running dry, and funding a war with no clear endgame is the main challenge
Donald Trump’s war on Iran has driven the US military into a severe financial crisis, with the US navy forced to transfer money from its payroll and other sources to cover the costs of combat, according to documents obtained by the Guardian, and interviews with navy officials, contractors and defense analysts.
The US-Israeli operation, which has depleted US munitions stockpiles and prompted retaliatory Iranian strikes that have wrecked strategic bases across the Middle East, is piling pressure on budgets across the military.
One Pentagon memo about navy funding seen by the Guardian warns that there are “shortfalls in payroll” accounts due to the department “raiding” them to fund combat operations.
Experts and former officials say the accounts are running dry. “The piggy bank is broken,” said Harlan Ullman, a retired naval officer. ...
One official and one navy contractor said non-emergency maintenance on shore-based facilities has been deferred because of the cash crunch.
These reports come as we learn that the US deficit is exploding in true Trumpian fashion.
It bears repeating that all this is a result of Trump’s choice to go to war on a roll of the dice, in the face of Tulsi Gabbard’s detailed warnings against it. The latest WSJ article on how this all happened offers no really new details, but it is nevertheless a devastating picture of Trump 2.0 incompetence. Trump would have done far better if had simply listened to Tucker Carlson.
After military and diplomatic efforts, President Trump pins his hopes on economic warfare
WASHINGTON—Days before going to war with Iran in February, President Trump summoned his intelligence chief to the Oval Office to ask whether a full-on assault was a good idea.
...
Then-Director of National Intelligence Tulsi Gabbard outlined assessments from America’s intelligence apparatus. According to people familiar with the meeting, she told Trump that killing Iran’s supreme leader would likely usher in a more hard-line regime open to acquiring nuclear weapons. Tehran would rush to close the Strait of Hormuz, destabilizing the global energy market. And it would strike U.S. forces and partners in the Middle East, prompting questions about American resolve and reliability with allies.
The notes of caution echoed warnings Trump was receiving from all corners. Top military leaders told the president that a war would lead to casualties, concerns about the weapons stockpile and readiness problems for an overstretched force, The Wall Street Journal reported.
Lots more of the same at the link, including description of Trump’s early chest thumping at his famous victory—especially the murder of Iran’s leader—followed by uncomprehending frustration:
Trump, soaking in the praise from his aides and the guests, crossed his arms and puffed out his chest, people familiar with the event said.
Trump’s beaming wouldn’t last. The battlefield losses and damage to U.S. equipment and bases raised questions over what the U.S. was gaining from the conflict.
Most intriguingly, perhaps, Simplicius quotes extensively from a new article at The Atlantic from ueber Jewish Nationalist, Robert Kagan, who appears to be positioning himself to advise a coming Dem majority. Go to Simplicius for more excerpts or read the actual article. Here I’ll quote the nub of Kagan’s view—with summary comments from Simplicius. Kagan is stressing—as others quoted above are doing—that the true extent of the fallout from the Anglo-Zionist defeat will be global, not just regional. BRICS is the big winner.
…
“For years, Iran confronted a balance of power in the Middle East that tilted against it. The region was dominated by a hostile American superpower, a nuclear-armed and militarily superior Israel, and significant local actors—Egypt, Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates—that were strategically and economically aligned with the United States.
“Today finds Iran in entirely new circumstances. It has gone head-to-head with the superpower and Israel, withstood a pounding from their most advanced weapons, and more than survived. As a result, Iran has, with American help, completely reconfigured the power structure of the Middle East and the Persian Gulf. The dominant power in the region going forward will be Iran, not the U.S. or Israel. Neighboring countries are already making their adjustments to this new reality. More distant powers will too. For years, the world has been dealing with an Iran constrained. It will now discover what Iran unleashed looks like.”
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Kagan goes on to explain that when Israel attempted to shut down Iran’s gas production, the blowback was so sudden and powerful that it immediately sent Trump TACOing into a ceasefire [by launching a massive strike on Qatar’s LNG infrastructure]:
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In short, Iran proved to hold the most powerful leverage of all.
He goes on to admit that the MOU signed in June was a clear Iranian victory ...
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The kicker, Kagan notes, is that Iran didn’t even really need the MOU, and knew the US had no cards to play and would cut tail with or without it:
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The US now fears escalation more than Iran does, Kagan correctly notes.
For now, Trump feels unable to do a full TACO, despite the ongoing damage to US military readiness—his ego, such as it is, takes priority. Military action, beyond the quasi-blockade that is so debilitating to the USN, appears to be off the board. Economic warfare is being proposed, but it increasingly being ignored or is just pathetic:
Megatron @Megatron_ron
2h
 Trump sanctions: Iranians cannot learn English on Duolingo
As part of the economic D-Day sanctions against Iran, Iranians have been banned from taking the Duolingo English test
While Trump tries to hang on past the midterms, Iran is increasingly confident and is hinting at a renewal of war before November, at the same time that the diesel shortages (diesel prices have already spiked sharply) will start really biting for all delivered goods:
MenchOsint @MenchOsint
22h
Iran’s Secretary of the Supreme National Security Council Mohsen Rezai:
“If the blockade continues, we will absolutely and decisively target American economic interests.
During the ceasefire, we broke the naval blockade and successfully exported approximately 70 to 80 million barrels of oil.
The level of oil sales has returned to pre-sanctions levels. In addition to unloading floating reserves, we have created new routes for exports, which are gradually increasing.”
That brings us to the conclusion. It’s hard to be sure exactly what’s going on at Hormuz, but here is a suggestive thread.
MenchOsint @MenchOsint
12h
Iran-linked Oil Tanker leaving the ship-to-ship transfer area.
*subscribers know that’s not the first time Iranian Oil/LPG Tankers are seen in the ship-to-ship transfer area or at an UAE/Omani port, but for some reason tankertrackers prefers to ignore this.
Another LPG Tanker, US-sanctioned “SEAGATE”, crossing the strait of Hormuz, via Iran-designated corridor.
UAE-managed Oil Tanker “AMARA” is moving after being detained for 10 days.
Five Oil/LPG tankers are crossing the Strait using Iran-designated corridor this morning.
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Paul Le Meur @plm203
Yes LPG tankers seem to be the most common noncrude tanker type crossing. It seems that most remain in the GOO [Gulf of Oman] or at most to Oman’s southern coast
They don’t even seem to do STST [ship to ship transfer]. I have several hypotheses:
Iran is exporting LPG to Oman. Seems consistent with intensified trade between Iran and Oman, https://windward.ai/blog/three-kinetic-incidents-and-an-expanding-iran-oman-corridor/…
Iran may have somehow adapted to the blockade by lading LPG tankers with other oils
or adapting its internal crude use to produce massive amounts of LPG for export
Seagate is planned to deliver its cargo at Shinas. So whatever type of oil it is either used by Oman (say to produce gasoline but Oman’s oil is not very heavy, just a little above world average) or reexported, avoiding a visible STST. In any case Washington would know that Oman is doing business with Iran, which might explain Trump’s threats.
Of course there is also the possibility that none of those LPG tankers is laden with Iran oil - probably easy to verify with trade intel subscriptions, a little harder without so i haven’t done it. But in any case they usually deliver to Oman. Would have to compare with prewar
Months to go to the midterms. Treacherous waters.
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Everyone's talking about the lack of PAC interceptors. From everything I read, they are most effective at shooting down planes, and much less effective at downing ballistic missiles, and completely ineffective against hypersonic missiles. Someone at the DOW should be analyzing whether we need any more of these dinosaurs or if it may be time to rethink our force structure.
Iran's capitulation is surely just around the corner with the crushing Duolingo sanctions.
Everyone's talking about the lack of PAC interceptors. From everything I read, they are most effective at shooting down planes, and much less effective at downing ballistic missiles, and completely ineffective against hypersonic missiles. Someone at the DOW should be analyzing whether we need any more of these dinosaurs or if it may be time to rethink our force structure.