google on: how much oil does china get from russia.
answer: China's oil imports from Russia fluctuate but were at approximately 2.2 million barrels per day (bpd) in 2024, making Russia its largest single crude oil exporter at that time. Russia supplied roughly 20% of China's total crude imports in 2024, a figure that reached close to a fifth in July 2025.
predictions: Ukraine will continue to target Russia's refineries. Tomahawks will be used to destroy Russia's oil infrastructure.
answer: China is the dominant market for Iranian oil, taking roughly 90% of Iran's exports, .....research from firms like Kpler indicates that China imports around 1.3 to 1.5 million barrels per day of Iranian crude.
prediction: US and Israel are going to destroy Iran's oil infrastructure, including ports, terminals, etc. They will be left with no ability to ship oil to china.
Is there a reason why that wasn't done during the 12 Day War? Possibly because of fear that Iran would then shut down the entire Persian Gulf, which they can definitely do.
google on: how much oil does china get from venezuela.
answer: China is receiving varying amounts of oil from Venezuela, with recent figures from July 2025 showing imports of around 844,000 barrels per day (bpd) of crude and refined products, representing approximately 90% of Venezuela's total exports.
prediction: US is going to seize Venezuela's oil and 100% will go to the US, China getting nothing.
Thanks for this post, Mark. Great chart from Robin Brooks! One would think that such an abrupt rise in the price of Gold would require years rather than six weeks. Also a great statement by him:
"The global rise in long-term yields on gov’t bonds and the rise in gold prices are interconnected. Markets fear that high and rising debt burdens will be monetized and fiat currencies debased."
Note the term "global." I think it is important to note that the rise in the price of Gold is not related simply to a de-Dollarization but to a lessening of the value of fiat currencies generally. Look at Europe and the UK. Are they in great shape? No. Look at Japan, are they in great shape? No, not for the last 30+ years. PP makes a correct statement: "'Fiat currencies' can only be 'debased' relative to one another." As Brooks notes all of these political areas have virtually no choice but to "print" more money to deal with their debt. That will lessen the value of all of the currencies (not just the Dollar) in terms of Gold and other hard assets.
Another factor is that the BRICS ARE reducing their Dollar holdings and increasing their purchases of Gold. Western central banks have been purchasing Gold as well. They all want collateral and a sound backing for conducting trade. So that does have impact on the Dollar. But in relative terms vs. other fiat currencies the Dollar is not going to crash. SWIFT is still the only game in town in the West. The Dollar is still used for 85% or so of all commerce. The real debasement of the Western currencies will come gradually as the BRICS financial systems are established and their economies strengthen further.
There are some news stories out today saying that Russia is urging India to pay for Russian oil--which India buys in huge quantities--with Chinese yuan.
Very interesting. I can only speculate that the Russians are subject to so many economic and trade sanctions that this is a way around that. I'm sure given their increased trade with China in general and in particular with their sales of oil to them, that it would not be difficult to come to a satisfactory agreement with China as regards being the "middleman" to facilitate payment for Russia's oil sales to India.
A Washington-based lobbying network with deep ties to the Biden administration has quietly expanded its partnership with Ukraine’s Ministry of Defense — and one of its top advisors is a sitting Democrat in Congress.
Rep. Marcy Kaptur (D-OH), the longest-serving woman in the House and a senior appropriator overseeing defense funding, currently sits on the board of advisors of the U.S.–Ukraine Business Council (USUBC). This organization just signed a new cooperation agreement with Ukraine’s Ministry of Defense to coordinate defense-industry projects.
The partnership blurs every line between lobbying, governance, and defense contracting, effectively turning a foreign-registered business council into a de facto arm of U.S.–Ukraine military integration.
He is possibly going to take credt if something positive happens for the people of Gaza? Or is his saying he might go more bluster theater?
I am wondering why Zionists Witkoff and Kushner need Trump's presence.
Negotiator representing Israel is Ron Dermer: he is Israeli Strategic Affairs Minister – a close aide of Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu. Read all about Dermer's activities at Wikipedia.
…outpacing Western defenses is spot on. I believe the Administration’s approach is not to defeat Russia militarily on the battlefield but to bankrupt Russia’s war-making capability.
Goldman are predicting $5,000/oz by the end of the year. Based on this is it incorrect to assert that in terms of real value, within the next three months, the dollar will be worth 80% what it is now? That's an Empire melting down, not merely crumbling.
I highly recommend that readers go to the article mentioned below (Richard Roskell's second post) (https://bmanalysis.substack.com/p/tomahawk-for-ukraine-never-ending). I know the author of that article (I edit his work), and he knows his stuff very well. Any Tomahawks launched into Russia will be confirmation that the U.S. is participating directly in the hostilities and will elicit a harsh response, primarily because the launches would not be from Ukraine.
Agreed. I've listened to Mikhajlovic in the past and found him very knowledgeable. Even if somehow the Tomahawks could be launched from some place in Ukraine it would invite a visit from Oreshnik to the support facilities outside Ukraine.
Someone please correct if wrong but there is no possibility of launching Tomahawks from Ukraine. Tomahawk is a sea-launched missile. The “missile defense” sites in Poland and Romania are able to launch them but those are sophisticated installations that took a long time to build. How would we “give” Ukraine these missiles? It’s a bluff for the western audience.
True, the options for the Ukies to launch them themselves are limited. Which raises the spectre of NATO and US saying, "Hey, leave it to us!" The people really are that crazy.
That can’t be credible in the eyes of the Russians, if we launch a tlam at them that’s basically a nuclear first launch. No way this happens. They’re throwing spaghetti at the wall at this point.
The precious metals may be just in another speculative bubble like everything else. Or they could be indicating the demise of the dollar based system and the dollar weaponization that the U.S. has so foolishly relied upon to sanction the world.
Gold could be indicating that no one trusts the empire of debt and wars and lies and inflation and trade deficits and an economy that is hollowed out from out sourcing and financialization.
Maybe it’s nothing. Or it could be the proverbial canary in a coal mine.
The thing with gold is that it is complicated. Possession is 9/10ths of the law. The “gold” that many “own” is paper gold. A digital piece of paper that is a claim on physical gold stored “somewhere.” This paper is traded and paid for with other paper called fiat, usually also digital nowadays. And if you do have physical gold, good luck using it in a time of crisis. Once others in the decimated community of which you find yourself after the collapse realize that you yourself have physical gold, good luck defending yourself from the thieving hordes that will descend upon you like locusts. Bury it in your backyard? Does no good if you have to hide it and can’t use it for trade. In the end, as usual, it is us little people that will wind up with the short end of the stick.
Gold will need to be repriced to handle the unpayable debt and facilitate trade between nations. The dollar is failing. It will need to be backed by gold. Read Luke Gromen. I agree with a lot of what he is saying except I don’t see much of a role for BTC.
As the article says, it's because some of the cleverest people on the planet - in fact, anyone with two brain cells - sees what's coming down the road. A simple cost-benefit analysis should send any sane person to the gold markets.
No, that's why I used "" in speaking of that. The land launched versions use installations that are as big as several semi-trailers. However, the intent was expressed that we are still at war and are looking for ways to escalate.
I would call attention to ASA, SILJ and GDXJ. For heaven's sake, SILJ up 4.75% on the day! Speaking of the investing world, and watching the accelerating advance of precious metals and miners closely, I feel like I'm one of a group of lifeguards running for their lives from the beach while most beach-goers (investors) relax in the sun or at most look on with curiosity. Next up, failures and scandals at the COMEX and all manner of chaos in metals markets and derivatives.
I just hope that world war is not conjured up as a financial system relief.
WHAT IF -- Bibi is speaking truth when he says he/Mossad/Israel did not kill Kirk.
It was demanded of Trump that he kill Kirk.
And he did. That's what keeps him on that tiger.
A Mossad operation would not have been so sloppy.
Trump assassins are tyros; improvising. What Trumpians know how to do is put on a show, & Kirk's memorial service was a Trump Team rally.
--
Came upon a Steve Bannon podcast from a short while ago. Ellison is a Known Known, but Bannon is a genuinely frightening entity. Unhinged & hateful but with a "god bless you all" for punctuation.
Business 101 says the purpose of business is to make a profit. That's the purpose of every single thing the US does. That's why they have already lost WWIII.
People live and die for things other than profit. You seem a little too eager to see the temple walls crash in on us. No matter what course Trump takes, loud voices will bellow that he’s wrong. Part of the price if shouldering such incredible responsibility.
Like the bullet that lodged under Kirk's skin/stopped by his bones, those "true American heroes" died without leaving a trace.
None.
Not even a hole in the ground.
I drove that route, along PA Route 30, at least twice monthly for about 7 years before and after 9/11/2001. (I do business with a Mennonite cabinet works in nearby Stoystown.)
The original roadway gave access to a strip-mining operation (a "Big Bertha" shovel was on-site on that first visit) in one by-way, and an approach to a windfarm in another direction. The windfarm has since increased in size significantly.
Shortly after the Event, I drove into the ragged road to the site where some had erected a chain-link fence where flowers and memorial messages were inserted. There was nothing else to see -- no hole in the ground, no debris field, no human remains. Nothing.
Over time, interested individuals organized to get funding for a memorial building/visitors center at the end of an 3-lane paved roadway, maybe 3/4 mile long. Initially, a traffic signal controlled the intersection of that road with Rte. 30. I travelled that route less than a month ago and to the best of my recollection, that traffic signal is gone.
Small businesses in the area have not prospered at all from the "Memorial Site." In fact, the one eatery in the area has been For Sale for many months, maybe years.
I remember that shortly after Flight 93's alleged crash into the earth, images were shown of airplane parts in nearby brush and woods....an engine, perhaps? The public was told they were all that was left of Flight 93. How could we know for sure where those photo-ed plane chunks really lay? Where did the people on board Flight 93, and the plane that allegedly smashed into the Pentagon, end up?
and how do we ram that service cart into the cockpit to avoid disaster? Isn't this why the Larry Ellison's, Alex Karp's, Peter Theil's have paid off our politicians so they can keep track of the people who might commandeer that service cart?
google on: how much oil does china get from russia.
answer: China's oil imports from Russia fluctuate but were at approximately 2.2 million barrels per day (bpd) in 2024, making Russia its largest single crude oil exporter at that time. Russia supplied roughly 20% of China's total crude imports in 2024, a figure that reached close to a fifth in July 2025.
predictions: Ukraine will continue to target Russia's refineries. Tomahawks will be used to destroy Russia's oil infrastructure.
Any attempt of that sort would be met with massive retaliation. Right now the Ukrainian drone strikes are mostly a nuisance.
I'm quite sure the Russians have gamed this out.
google on: how much oil does china get from iran.
answer: China is the dominant market for Iranian oil, taking roughly 90% of Iran's exports, .....research from firms like Kpler indicates that China imports around 1.3 to 1.5 million barrels per day of Iranian crude.
prediction: US and Israel are going to destroy Iran's oil infrastructure, including ports, terminals, etc. They will be left with no ability to ship oil to china.
Is there a reason why that wasn't done during the 12 Day War? Possibly because of fear that Iran would then shut down the entire Persian Gulf, which they can definitely do.
Yeah removing that supply from the global market would fuck us all
google on: how much oil does china get from venezuela.
answer: China is receiving varying amounts of oil from Venezuela, with recent figures from July 2025 showing imports of around 844,000 barrels per day (bpd) of crude and refined products, representing approximately 90% of Venezuela's total exports.
prediction: US is going to seize Venezuela's oil and 100% will go to the US, China getting nothing.
That would be the plan, but it could prove more difficult than supposed.
Thanks for this post, Mark. Great chart from Robin Brooks! One would think that such an abrupt rise in the price of Gold would require years rather than six weeks. Also a great statement by him:
"The global rise in long-term yields on gov’t bonds and the rise in gold prices are interconnected. Markets fear that high and rising debt burdens will be monetized and fiat currencies debased."
Note the term "global." I think it is important to note that the rise in the price of Gold is not related simply to a de-Dollarization but to a lessening of the value of fiat currencies generally. Look at Europe and the UK. Are they in great shape? No. Look at Japan, are they in great shape? No, not for the last 30+ years. PP makes a correct statement: "'Fiat currencies' can only be 'debased' relative to one another." As Brooks notes all of these political areas have virtually no choice but to "print" more money to deal with their debt. That will lessen the value of all of the currencies (not just the Dollar) in terms of Gold and other hard assets.
Another factor is that the BRICS ARE reducing their Dollar holdings and increasing their purchases of Gold. Western central banks have been purchasing Gold as well. They all want collateral and a sound backing for conducting trade. So that does have impact on the Dollar. But in relative terms vs. other fiat currencies the Dollar is not going to crash. SWIFT is still the only game in town in the West. The Dollar is still used for 85% or so of all commerce. The real debasement of the Western currencies will come gradually as the BRICS financial systems are established and their economies strengthen further.
There are some news stories out today saying that Russia is urging India to pay for Russian oil--which India buys in huge quantities--with Chinese yuan.
Very interesting. I can only speculate that the Russians are subject to so many economic and trade sanctions that this is a way around that. I'm sure given their increased trade with China in general and in particular with their sales of oil to them, that it would not be difficult to come to a satisfactory agreement with China as regards being the "middleman" to facilitate payment for Russia's oil sales to India.
https://nataliegwinters.substack.com/p/exclusive-democrat-lawmaker-advises
The first three paragraphs...
A Washington-based lobbying network with deep ties to the Biden administration has quietly expanded its partnership with Ukraine’s Ministry of Defense — and one of its top advisors is a sitting Democrat in Congress.
Rep. Marcy Kaptur (D-OH), the longest-serving woman in the House and a senior appropriator overseeing defense funding, currently sits on the board of advisors of the U.S.–Ukraine Business Council (USUBC). This organization just signed a new cooperation agreement with Ukraine’s Ministry of Defense to coordinate defense-industry projects.
The partnership blurs every line between lobbying, governance, and defense contracting, effectively turning a foreign-registered business council into a de facto arm of U.S.–Ukraine military integration.
“Kaptured” by AIPAC too I suppose?
News I just read about US involvement in Gaza:
Trump says he may travel to Middle East as Gaza deal ‘very close’
https://www.yahoo.com/news/articles/trump-says-may-travel-middle-225230010.html
He is possibly going to take credt if something positive happens for the people of Gaza? Or is his saying he might go more bluster theater?
I am wondering why Zionists Witkoff and Kushner need Trump's presence.
Negotiator representing Israel is Ron Dermer: he is Israeli Strategic Affairs Minister – a close aide of Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu. Read all about Dermer's activities at Wikipedia.
…outpacing Western defenses is spot on. I believe the Administration’s approach is not to defeat Russia militarily on the battlefield but to bankrupt Russia’s war-making capability.
Instead the reverse is happening.
The comment about Russia’s military technology oh
Goldman are predicting $5,000/oz by the end of the year. Based on this is it incorrect to assert that in terms of real value, within the next three months, the dollar will be worth 80% what it is now? That's an Empire melting down, not merely crumbling.
I highly recommend that readers go to the article mentioned below (Richard Roskell's second post) (https://bmanalysis.substack.com/p/tomahawk-for-ukraine-never-ending). I know the author of that article (I edit his work), and he knows his stuff very well. Any Tomahawks launched into Russia will be confirmation that the U.S. is participating directly in the hostilities and will elicit a harsh response, primarily because the launches would not be from Ukraine.
Agreed. I've listened to Mikhajlovic in the past and found him very knowledgeable. Even if somehow the Tomahawks could be launched from some place in Ukraine it would invite a visit from Oreshnik to the support facilities outside Ukraine.
Listening to Macgregor just now saying exactly that with regard to German Taurus missiles.
Someone please correct if wrong but there is no possibility of launching Tomahawks from Ukraine. Tomahawk is a sea-launched missile. The “missile defense” sites in Poland and Romania are able to launch them but those are sophisticated installations that took a long time to build. How would we “give” Ukraine these missiles? It’s a bluff for the western audience.
True, the options for the Ukies to launch them themselves are limited. Which raises the spectre of NATO and US saying, "Hey, leave it to us!" The people really are that crazy.
That can’t be credible in the eyes of the Russians, if we launch a tlam at them that’s basically a nuclear first launch. No way this happens. They’re throwing spaghetti at the wall at this point.
Let's hope it's just that. Trump has history of talking big and doing little.
The precious metals may be just in another speculative bubble like everything else. Or they could be indicating the demise of the dollar based system and the dollar weaponization that the U.S. has so foolishly relied upon to sanction the world.
Gold could be indicating that no one trusts the empire of debt and wars and lies and inflation and trade deficits and an economy that is hollowed out from out sourcing and financialization.
Maybe it’s nothing. Or it could be the proverbial canary in a coal mine.
The thing with gold is that it is complicated. Possession is 9/10ths of the law. The “gold” that many “own” is paper gold. A digital piece of paper that is a claim on physical gold stored “somewhere.” This paper is traded and paid for with other paper called fiat, usually also digital nowadays. And if you do have physical gold, good luck using it in a time of crisis. Once others in the decimated community of which you find yourself after the collapse realize that you yourself have physical gold, good luck defending yourself from the thieving hordes that will descend upon you like locusts. Bury it in your backyard? Does no good if you have to hide it and can’t use it for trade. In the end, as usual, it is us little people that will wind up with the short end of the stick.
Gold will need to be repriced to handle the unpayable debt and facilitate trade between nations. The dollar is failing. It will need to be backed by gold. Read Luke Gromen. I agree with a lot of what he is saying except I don’t see much of a role for BTC.
As the article says, it's because some of the cleverest people on the planet - in fact, anyone with two brain cells - sees what's coming down the road. A simple cost-benefit analysis should send any sane person to the gold markets.
Got gold? What about BTC?
BTC no way. A digital ponzi scheme.
No, that's why I used "" in speaking of that. The land launched versions use installations that are as big as several semi-trailers. However, the intent was expressed that we are still at war and are looking for ways to escalate.
I would call attention to ASA, SILJ and GDXJ. For heaven's sake, SILJ up 4.75% on the day! Speaking of the investing world, and watching the accelerating advance of precious metals and miners closely, I feel like I'm one of a group of lifeguards running for their lives from the beach while most beach-goers (investors) relax in the sun or at most look on with curiosity. Next up, failures and scandals at the COMEX and all manner of chaos in metals markets and derivatives.
I just hope that world war is not conjured up as a financial system relief.
Correct that - SILJ (etf for developing silver mining companies) up 6% on the day. Something is going on.
WHAT IF -- Bibi is speaking truth when he says he/Mossad/Israel did not kill Kirk.
It was demanded of Trump that he kill Kirk.
And he did. That's what keeps him on that tiger.
A Mossad operation would not have been so sloppy.
Trump assassins are tyros; improvising. What Trumpians know how to do is put on a show, & Kirk's memorial service was a Trump Team rally.
--
Came upon a Steve Bannon podcast from a short while ago. Ellison is a Known Known, but Bannon is a genuinely frightening entity. Unhinged & hateful but with a "god bless you all" for punctuation.
Business 101 says the purpose of business is to make a profit. That's the purpose of every single thing the US does. That's why they have already lost WWIII.
People live and die for things other than profit. You seem a little too eager to see the temple walls crash in on us. No matter what course Trump takes, loud voices will bellow that he’s wrong. Part of the price if shouldering such incredible responsibility.
The problem is how profits are defined.
For some it’s defined as spreading the woke religion, including climate change, no borders, and the green new deal. As well as helping Israel.
Gold as good as cash? How do you get change for an oz. of gold when it's at $-5,000? :-)
Someone asked Catherine Austin-Fitts 'how much gold should you own?'
She said, Enough to bribe the guard to let you out of- into - the country.
Hey, that was a good film. I love fiction myself.
" They died as true American heroes."
Like the bullet that lodged under Kirk's skin/stopped by his bones, those "true American heroes" died without leaving a trace.
None.
Not even a hole in the ground.
I drove that route, along PA Route 30, at least twice monthly for about 7 years before and after 9/11/2001. (I do business with a Mennonite cabinet works in nearby Stoystown.)
The original roadway gave access to a strip-mining operation (a "Big Bertha" shovel was on-site on that first visit) in one by-way, and an approach to a windfarm in another direction. The windfarm has since increased in size significantly.
Shortly after the Event, I drove into the ragged road to the site where some had erected a chain-link fence where flowers and memorial messages were inserted. There was nothing else to see -- no hole in the ground, no debris field, no human remains. Nothing.
Over time, interested individuals organized to get funding for a memorial building/visitors center at the end of an 3-lane paved roadway, maybe 3/4 mile long. Initially, a traffic signal controlled the intersection of that road with Rte. 30. I travelled that route less than a month ago and to the best of my recollection, that traffic signal is gone.
Small businesses in the area have not prospered at all from the "Memorial Site." In fact, the one eatery in the area has been For Sale for many months, maybe years.
I thank you for your eye witness reports, Clyde.
I remember that shortly after Flight 93's alleged crash into the earth, images were shown of airplane parts in nearby brush and woods....an engine, perhaps? The public was told they were all that was left of Flight 93. How could we know for sure where those photo-ed plane chunks really lay? Where did the people on board Flight 93, and the plane that allegedly smashed into the Pentagon, end up?
How long and how much have we been deceived?
Alas, we have gone from leveraging
knowing where the bodies are buried, to
knowing where no bodies are buried.
and how do we ram that service cart into the cockpit to avoid disaster? Isn't this why the Larry Ellison's, Alex Karp's, Peter Theil's have paid off our politicians so they can keep track of the people who might commandeer that service cart?