From what little I know as a layman I can appreciate and generally agree with Sean Foo's analysis. I don't know if the situation is quite as stark or binary as he portrays, though. China's economy has its own problems and is no bed of roses. China also remains subject to the energy constraints presented by the Iran situation although certainly not to the extent of a Japan or Korea.
I would be interested to know just what these "Panda Bonds" are invested in. If it is Chinese real estate that would not be so great. Corporates better but not necessarily great. If it is in government bonds then it would be essentially a play on the currency exchange between the U.S. and China. What I do know is that direct investment in Chinese bonds is pretty much limited to institutional players. There are only a few ETFs and Mutual Funds where retail investors can play and those are actively managed thus limiting individual choice of bonds.
There are also separate stock issuances for Chinese and foreign investors. You can bet that the "big boys" will be transferring their monetary flows into Chinese assets long before the rest of us can reap whatever benefits or avoid whatever losses there may be from doing so.
When European banks issue corporate bonds in US Dollars in the US bond market, they are called Yankee bonds. I'm guessing that's the same for the Panda Bonds that DB issued. DB is diversifying its sources of funding into the Chinese bond market.
"China also remains subject to the energy constraints presented by the Iran situation" Do you mean if someone bombs Iranian production? Because they are allowing Chinese ships through the Strait, so no constraints there, right?
Now the meaning of his campaign declaration, “It’s not me they’re after it’s you.” He just delivered us to “them.” What a guy. We have identified the new Judas, it’s DJ Trump.
Chump's ego is so inflated with wanting to be the first and greatest at everything. Maybe he wants to be the first president to be thrown out of office in the history of America.
Or perhaps there are a few Wormtongue around him telling him how great he will be after dealing with Iran.
My guess is the Zionists are playing a huge part of this. Netanyahu for sure. And Netanyahu puppets, the Christian Zionists. Jared too. And Wiley gate keeping Trump. And Lyndsey Graham.
Trumps destroying the coalition that elected him by alienating them. Libertarians, anti war, America first, and now farmers. Not much left? I guess his appeal is becoming more selective.
There are forces within the gop that would live to destroy the maga Coalition. thune, McConnell, etc. I’m suspicious of Israel, perhaps they think the uniparty is easier to influence.
He's still under the impression that "Iran will be bombed back to The Middle Ages" long enough before the elections to open the Straits and get oil back down is what he is thinking, and he is pretty clearly beholden to the MIC, among others.
Yes, me too, and millions of others. The only things I can offer are aphorisms I heard a long time ago: 1) "When something doesn't make sense it because we don't have all the pieces to the puzzle." 2) "When something doesn't make sense it is because money is involved."
I would hazard a guess that both aphorisms apply when it comes to Trump and the Anglo-Zionists / Jewish Nationalists.
Foreign investors have wanted out of the US debt for a decade. The problem was they had to tiptoe out slowly to avoid destroying their own assets on the way out. China has been slowly drawing down for a decade. Along the way the problem only got worse as the US repeatedly showed assets were not safe there - eg by seizing them.
What has happened is that the war has caused some debt holders to get out of UST in a hurry and that then triggers a race for everyone else who was trying to “tiptoe” out to make a run for it before their US assets collapse.
''Trump: In any event, when this conflict is over, the strait will open up naturally. It’ll just open up naturally. They’re going to want to be able to sell oil because that’s all they have, to try and rebuild. That will resume the flowing and the gas prices will rapidly come back down.''
So why is he taking pot-shots at the nuclear facility that could result in the whole region esp on the GCC side becoming a no-go area?
JUST IN: Iran’s Foreign Minister posted five sentences on X on April 4 that should have stopped every government in the Gulf. “Israel-U.S. have bombed our Bushehr plant four times now. Radioactive fallout will end life in GCC capitals, not Tehran.” He compared it to Western outrage over Zaporizhzhia in Ukraine and accused the attackers of double standards. The IAEA confirmed the fourth strike: a projectile hit near the site, one guard killed, a support building damaged. No radiation increase was detected. The containment held. This time.
The physics of why the fallout would reach Riyadh and not Tehran is geography that no amount of diplomacy can change. Bushehr sits on the Persian Gulf coast at 28 degrees north. Tehran is 750 kilometres inland, shielded by the Zagros Mountains. The prevailing winter winds blow from the northwest to the southeast, directly across the Gulf toward the UAE, Qatar, Bahrain, and Saudi Arabia’s Eastern Province. The anticlockwise surface currents of the Gulf carry waterborne radionuclides westward and northwestward toward the head of the Gulf, reaching Kuwait and Bahrain within approximately 15 days according to peer-reviewed hydrodynamic simulations....
I'm seriously beginning to wonder about investing in a Geiger counter to check my supermarket seafood(definitely if I were buying Japanese seafood!)(Don't even read about Dow's trying to get permission to dump plastic pellets in the Texas Gulf if you don't want to O.D. on despair.)
There's also the wealth effect feedback loop. US domestic consumption is held up by capital gains of the top 10%. Stocks go up, people feel rich, people spend.
The US' current account deficit has to go somewhere - US imports stuff and exports USD, which then flow back into US treasuries and assets.
Which means that foreigners selling US assets can cause demand destruction on the US domestic market (together with all the other factors, like job losses, housing crash, private credit etc), which then reduces the trade deficit, which reduces foreign investments etc. A falling USD (relative to other fiat) would accelerate that, too.
There's a risk of a significant unwind of that leverage if that fragile net of dependencies is sufficiently disturbed.
If you look at the patterns of how things go it is likely that the US economy is being forced into a crash and depression. People/institutions outside the US (the ones who have been extracting billions of US taxpayer dollars recently and in past decades...likely those identifying as Jewish connected to Ukraine and Israel) are waiting to come in and basically buy up the country. Is there really anything to do at this point?
One has to wonder if the Trump of the first term would be doing all this. Is he in mental decline, possibly hastened by the dreadful COVID vaccine? Is this the real Trump that he hid during his first term when he wanted a second term? Did surviving an assassination attempt and lawfare give him a god complex?
For the good of the country, he does need to be removed as soon as possible. Too much is at stake.
I continue to say that he's not the only one at fault here. As a nation, we walked away from our solid base of Christianity and it's time to pay the piper.
Not having a moral compass leaves a society open to insidious actions of evil, including delusions of granduer and idolatry. That said, I think Mark's theory that Trump made a deal with the Jewish Nationalists prior to running for this term has support on the evidence. What I don't understand is why he felt compelled to do so - perhaps just his desire for revenge? That is all too human but not very Godly. Or was he always one of them?
He orders Bondi to unleash a virtual kennel of FBI agents to redact his name from reams of documents related to Epstein and you think he driven by "revenge"? Seriously? (someone, remind me what cognitive dissonance means.)
I'm pretty sure that this shorter, fatter, Trump replaced the old one some time ago. But I do think that when they replace people they give them the old ones memories somewhat.
Benjamin Fulford said he was taken out by Carney when he visited Canada.
His daughter reacts totally differently to this geezer. She testified against him on one of his court cases with no visible emotion.
What's truly strange is the eerie silence from the whole of the American ruling class. Is this deafening silence because they are completely supine or is it because something is brewing behind the scenes? Maybe the sacking of the generals is a hint that unseen forces are gathering. If a week is a long time in politics, November seems light years away. The world can't wait till then. Someone inside the US body politik has to step up and get rid of Trump.
The R's always care about keeping their seats. This time they might know that their goose is cooked. With nothing to lose, maybe stand for principle? At least once, maybe stand for principle?
Ivanka's husband is still #1 in Trump' eyes. Kushner is likely in the air right now or on the ground allegedly selling "peace deals" to whomever. Jared describes himself as a "deal guy." I don't understand how parasite Kushner could sell so much as a one bedroom apartment in Brooklyn.
Yes but this being "dumbed down" and the programmed ignorance and gullibility and the being made susceptible to material greed and narcissism and envy seems to have been a long term project. I think I know as I have been around for the last 60-plus years. People tend to be sheep looking for a shepherd. Our shepherds in this country via the media over the last 60 years have been false. Many people would like to learn and know what is true... if only they had been given the opportunity and guidance.
Same with Europeans. We should know better because we're much closer to the action. Ukraine isn't that far away. Yet everyone carries on as if things are just dandy.
As humans, we all seem to be guilty of that do some degree IJM. However, at the level that Trump and Co. operate at, it's a flaw whose potential for disaster is magnified a million times.
One gets the feeling the dominoes are lined up and Israel is doing its darndest to knock the first one over and set off a cascade.
From what little I know as a layman I can appreciate and generally agree with Sean Foo's analysis. I don't know if the situation is quite as stark or binary as he portrays, though. China's economy has its own problems and is no bed of roses. China also remains subject to the energy constraints presented by the Iran situation although certainly not to the extent of a Japan or Korea.
I would be interested to know just what these "Panda Bonds" are invested in. If it is Chinese real estate that would not be so great. Corporates better but not necessarily great. If it is in government bonds then it would be essentially a play on the currency exchange between the U.S. and China. What I do know is that direct investment in Chinese bonds is pretty much limited to institutional players. There are only a few ETFs and Mutual Funds where retail investors can play and those are actively managed thus limiting individual choice of bonds.
There are also separate stock issuances for Chinese and foreign investors. You can bet that the "big boys" will be transferring their monetary flows into Chinese assets long before the rest of us can reap whatever benefits or avoid whatever losses there may be from doing so.
When European banks issue corporate bonds in US Dollars in the US bond market, they are called Yankee bonds. I'm guessing that's the same for the Panda Bonds that DB issued. DB is diversifying its sources of funding into the Chinese bond market.
Trump's probably thinking, "Panda Bonds? Didn't I just sack her?"
LOL!
"China also remains subject to the energy constraints presented by the Iran situation" Do you mean if someone bombs Iranian production? Because they are allowing Chinese ships through the Strait, so no constraints there, right?
What he's saying is basically the long form of what Gromen put in a single tweet.
Yeah I can see that... over time.
Liu Feng 刘锋 @LiuInTheShadows
18h
THE PEOPLE WHO VOTED FOR HIM ARE THE FIRST ONES GETTING CUT. 
Trump just asked for $1.5 TRILLION in military spending. Largest defense request in American history. 44% increase for the Pentagon.
And to pay for it? He's cutting the farmers who put him in office.
$510 million in agricultural grants — CUT.
$82 million in rural small business loans — FULLY ELIMINATED.
$61 million for farmers and food markets — FULLY ELIMINATED.
Not Wall Street. Not blue cities. Rural America. His base. His voters.
The same people holding "Trump 2024" signs at county fairs. The same people who said he understood them.
Gas prices nearly doubled since the Iran war started. And now the food market support that kept rural communities alive — gone.
He told them he'd put America First.
He just told them what that actually means.
Now the meaning of his campaign declaration, “It’s not me they’re after it’s you.” He just delivered us to “them.” What a guy. We have identified the new Judas, it’s DJ Trump.
It seems Trump is attacking his voter coalition and wants to lose the midterms.
Chump's ego is so inflated with wanting to be the first and greatest at everything. Maybe he wants to be the first president to be thrown out of office in the history of America.
Or perhaps there are a few Wormtongue around him telling him how great he will be after dealing with Iran.
My guess is the Zionists are playing a huge part of this. Netanyahu for sure. And Netanyahu puppets, the Christian Zionists. Jared too. And Wiley gate keeping Trump. And Lyndsey Graham.
What, so he can go through another impeachment try? (this time the non-RINOS might even pile on)
Why would he want to lose the midterms?
Everything with this war confuses me.
I’m just looking at trumps actions.
Trumps destroying the coalition that elected him by alienating them. Libertarians, anti war, America first, and now farmers. Not much left? I guess his appeal is becoming more selective.
There are forces within the gop that would live to destroy the maga Coalition. thune, McConnell, etc. I’m suspicious of Israel, perhaps they think the uniparty is easier to influence.
Or perhaps it’s just Trumps hubris.
https://polymarket.com/event/which-party-will-win-the-senate-in-2026
He's still under the impression that "Iran will be bombed back to The Middle Ages" long enough before the elections to open the Straits and get oil back down is what he is thinking, and he is pretty clearly beholden to the MIC, among others.
Yes, me too, and millions of others. The only things I can offer are aphorisms I heard a long time ago: 1) "When something doesn't make sense it because we don't have all the pieces to the puzzle." 2) "When something doesn't make sense it is because money is involved."
I would hazard a guess that both aphorisms apply when it comes to Trump and the Anglo-Zionists / Jewish Nationalists.
Utter betrayal.
Time for another acronym
ATOG
Another Trump Own Goal.
TOGA works better
Sounds like 48 hours to the next escalation from Trump.
I’m not sure how Trump can escalate further.
The Iranians are doing an amazing job of escalating, doing tit for tat, I would think would be increased pressure that Trump would hear about.
I hope he hears about it.
Foreign investors have wanted out of the US debt for a decade. The problem was they had to tiptoe out slowly to avoid destroying their own assets on the way out. China has been slowly drawing down for a decade. Along the way the problem only got worse as the US repeatedly showed assets were not safe there - eg by seizing them.
What has happened is that the war has caused some debt holders to get out of UST in a hurry and that then triggers a race for everyone else who was trying to “tiptoe” out to make a run for it before their US assets collapse.
Basically it’s now a bank run on the US.
''Trump: In any event, when this conflict is over, the strait will open up naturally. It’ll just open up naturally. They’re going to want to be able to sell oil because that’s all they have, to try and rebuild. That will resume the flowing and the gas prices will rapidly come back down.''
So why is he taking pot-shots at the nuclear facility that could result in the whole region esp on the GCC side becoming a no-go area?
Shanaka Anslem Perera
https://x.com/i/status/2040448771386114115
JUST IN: Iran’s Foreign Minister posted five sentences on X on April 4 that should have stopped every government in the Gulf. “Israel-U.S. have bombed our Bushehr plant four times now. Radioactive fallout will end life in GCC capitals, not Tehran.” He compared it to Western outrage over Zaporizhzhia in Ukraine and accused the attackers of double standards. The IAEA confirmed the fourth strike: a projectile hit near the site, one guard killed, a support building damaged. No radiation increase was detected. The containment held. This time.
The physics of why the fallout would reach Riyadh and not Tehran is geography that no amount of diplomacy can change. Bushehr sits on the Persian Gulf coast at 28 degrees north. Tehran is 750 kilometres inland, shielded by the Zagros Mountains. The prevailing winter winds blow from the northwest to the southeast, directly across the Gulf toward the UAE, Qatar, Bahrain, and Saudi Arabia’s Eastern Province. The anticlockwise surface currents of the Gulf carry waterborne radionuclides westward and northwestward toward the head of the Gulf, reaching Kuwait and Bahrain within approximately 15 days according to peer-reviewed hydrodynamic simulations....
I'm seriously beginning to wonder about investing in a Geiger counter to check my supermarket seafood(definitely if I were buying Japanese seafood!)(Don't even read about Dow's trying to get permission to dump plastic pellets in the Texas Gulf if you don't want to O.D. on despair.)
The Trump Timeline:
Jan 18: “Iranian patriots, help is coming. We are moving in.”
Feb 28: “We are launching the decisive operation. It will be very fast.”
Mar 2: “We will win easily.”
Mar 3: “We have won the war.”
Mar 7: “We defeated Iran.”
Mar 9: “Strike Iran. The war is almost over—clean and decisive.”
Mar 12: “We have won, but not completely yet.”
Mar 13: “We won the war again.”
Mar 14: “We need help to open the strait.”
Mar 15: “If you don’t help, I will remember it.”
Mar 16: “We actually don’t need help—I was testing loyalty. If NATO doesn’t help, consequences will follow."
Mar 17: “We don’t need NATO help and don’t want it. No Congress approval needed to exit NATO.”
Mar 18: “Allies must cooperate to open the Strait of Hormuz.”
Mar 19: “US allies must step up and help open the strait.”
Mar 20: “NATO is cowardly. We may phase this out.”
Mar 21: “We don’t use the strait. Others need it, not us.”
Mar 22: “Final warning. Iran has 48 hours. Iran is finished.”
Mar 23: “One more week, then we bomb power plants.”
Mar 24: “The war is nearing its end.”
Mar 25: “We are negotiating with Iran.”
Mar 26: “Iran is begging for peace. They gave us a gift. We delay strikes on power plants.”
Mar 27: “I and the Ayatollah will jointly manage the Strait of Hormuz.”
Mar 28: “Regime change has occurred in Iran.”
Mar 29: “Negotiations with Iran are going extremely well.”
Mar 30: “We are prepared to destroy Iran’s oil and energy infrastructure and occupy Kharg Island.”
Mar 31: “We are ready to end the war without opening the strait.”
Apr 1: “War ends in 3 days. We will bomb them for 2–3 weeks back into the Stone Age.”
Apr 2: “We destroyed three major bridges. Why haven’t they called us yet?”
April 4th: "We rescued our pilots. We won!"
Shared by a friend in Malaysia https://www.tiktok.com/@diplomaticcircus/video/7623992653641764112
"If you are in the files, start a war." Ain't that the truth!
LOL!
April 5: We are open to negotiations off you will just provide the GPS coordinates of where you would like them held."
And huddle a bit closer together. Oh, and bring your kids too!
And the wife. Don't forget the wife.
And any moderates amongst you so we have no-one to negotiate with anyway.
Maybe he shouldn't talk every day:
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-15702837/Macron-tells-Trump-you-shouldnt-talk-day-dismissing-US-Presidents-demands-open-Strait-Hormuz-force.html
When Macron starts sounding like a font of wisdom and a paragon of virtue you know something is wrong...
Seems like a lot of cognitive dissonance going on.
Edward Dowd @DowdEdward
Hormuz Oil Shock Analysis:
We estimate that CPI for March will be 3.26%.
Luke Gromen @LukeGromen
2h
How much of your savings would you sell to feed your family & pay your mortgage if you lost your job while food, electricity, & heating costs soared?
You would sell all of it, & so will the world…
…& the world has $70tn of “savings” (gross; $27tn net), mostly in USD assets
There's also the wealth effect feedback loop. US domestic consumption is held up by capital gains of the top 10%. Stocks go up, people feel rich, people spend.
The US' current account deficit has to go somewhere - US imports stuff and exports USD, which then flow back into US treasuries and assets.
Which means that foreigners selling US assets can cause demand destruction on the US domestic market (together with all the other factors, like job losses, housing crash, private credit etc), which then reduces the trade deficit, which reduces foreign investments etc. A falling USD (relative to other fiat) would accelerate that, too.
There's a risk of a significant unwind of that leverage if that fragile net of dependencies is sufficiently disturbed.
Yes and Wall Str has a voracious appetite - buy buy.
If you look at the patterns of how things go it is likely that the US economy is being forced into a crash and depression. People/institutions outside the US (the ones who have been extracting billions of US taxpayer dollars recently and in past decades...likely those identifying as Jewish connected to Ukraine and Israel) are waiting to come in and basically buy up the country. Is there really anything to do at this point?
One has to wonder if the Trump of the first term would be doing all this. Is he in mental decline, possibly hastened by the dreadful COVID vaccine? Is this the real Trump that he hid during his first term when he wanted a second term? Did surviving an assassination attempt and lawfare give him a god complex?
For the good of the country, he does need to be removed as soon as possible. Too much is at stake.
I continue to say that he's not the only one at fault here. As a nation, we walked away from our solid base of Christianity and it's time to pay the piper.
Not having a moral compass leaves a society open to insidious actions of evil, including delusions of granduer and idolatry. That said, I think Mark's theory that Trump made a deal with the Jewish Nationalists prior to running for this term has support on the evidence. What I don't understand is why he felt compelled to do so - perhaps just his desire for revenge? That is all too human but not very Godly. Or was he always one of them?
He orders Bondi to unleash a virtual kennel of FBI agents to redact his name from reams of documents related to Epstein and you think he driven by "revenge"? Seriously? (someone, remind me what cognitive dissonance means.)
Good question, Diss. Unfortunately, I don't have an answer.
Unfortunately, I voted for him…2x.
3x for me.
I'm pretty sure that this shorter, fatter, Trump replaced the old one some time ago. But I do think that when they replace people they give them the old ones memories somewhat.
Benjamin Fulford said he was taken out by Carney when he visited Canada.
His daughter reacts totally differently to this geezer. She testified against him on one of his court cases with no visible emotion.
What's truly strange is the eerie silence from the whole of the American ruling class. Is this deafening silence because they are completely supine or is it because something is brewing behind the scenes? Maybe the sacking of the generals is a hint that unseen forces are gathering. If a week is a long time in politics, November seems light years away. The world can't wait till then. Someone inside the US body politik has to step up and get rid of Trump.
When you aim for the king you’d better not miss. Our courageous elite are waiting.
Something has to happen to make the dam break.
It's not like we have a set of politicians who are exactly profiles in courage. The bench is pretty weak.
True, but you'd have thought that self-presentation would kick in at some stage. Maybe they don't care about losing their seats in November.
The R's always care about keeping their seats. This time they might know that their goose is cooked. With nothing to lose, maybe stand for principle? At least once, maybe stand for principle?
That’s what happens when Trump listens to Suzie Wiles and only the Zionists she allows him to hear. God help us all.
Ivanka's husband is still #1 in Trump' eyes. Kushner is likely in the air right now or on the ground allegedly selling "peace deals" to whomever. Jared describes himself as a "deal guy." I don't understand how parasite Kushner could sell so much as a one bedroom apartment in Brooklyn.
Tone your act down. You can make your point without epithets of that sort.
Nothing good will come to we the peasants. Maybe the tech lords will be hanged along with the Wall Street wizards, and political prostitutes too.
Good old fashioned justice?
I'd love to see justice but I'm not holding my breath.
Not holding my breath.
LOL, I stole your words.
Yes but this being "dumbed down" and the programmed ignorance and gullibility and the being made susceptible to material greed and narcissism and envy seems to have been a long term project. I think I know as I have been around for the last 60-plus years. People tend to be sheep looking for a shepherd. Our shepherds in this country via the media over the last 60 years have been false. Many people would like to learn and know what is true... if only they had been given the opportunity and guidance.
Same with Europeans. We should know better because we're much closer to the action. Ukraine isn't that far away. Yet everyone carries on as if things are just dandy.
‘Ukraine isn't that far away’. Yes - and nukes bring everyone much closer together.
I wonder if too much television, movies and video games with killing, gore, etc., anesthetize people from the reality of death and destruction.
When you live in an online world of your choosing, one may not see reality. One may only see what he chooses to see.
As humans, we all seem to be guilty of that do some degree IJM. However, at the level that Trump and Co. operate at, it's a flaw whose potential for disaster is magnified a million times.