Trump About To Double Down On Failure

That’s the betting—more bigger war tomorrow. The WSJ has an article out that highlights the truth that Trump largely winged his war, with no real plan, against advice, and under the direction of Netanyahu. He recognized he had failed early on, but now—as predicated by Professor Pape’s doctrine of the “escalation trap”—sees no other option that to … double down. Think about that. Netanyahu somehow—we hardly dare ask how—got Trump to destroy his own presidency, yet how do you figure that he’ll do it again, as seems likely? As Patty Marins asked: What is the weird hold that Jewish Nationalists have over him?

DD Geopolitics @DD_Geopolitics

1h

 Behind Trump’s confident public posture on the Iran war, the Wall Street Journal reports a president gripped by fear, distraction and no clear exit strategy.

No “clear” exit strategy? Is there even a fuzzy, unclear one?

When a U.S. jet was shot down over Iran on Good Friday, Trump screamed at aides for hours. Images of Jimmy Carter’s failed 1979 hostage rescue were haunting him. Aides kept him out of the Situation Room during the rescue operation because, a senior official said, his impatience wouldn’t be helpful.

Trump had told his team before the war that Iran would capitulate before closing the Strait of Hormuz, and that even if they tried, the U.S. military could handle it. He was wrong on both counts. He has since marveled at how easily it was shut down, telling aides: “A guy with a drone can shut it down.”

Notably, as early as late March, before the plane was even shot down, Trump had already ordered his negotiating team to find a way to start talks, according to the WSJ. The public threats and the private reality were moving in opposite directions.

In other words, trust the Iranian reports, not Trump. That’s exactly what Iran has said—that within 10 days Trump was begging to negotiate.

Iran as a second Venezuela? Anyone with half a brain new there was no valid comparison—at all. That points to an ego driven, impulsive gamble.

The war itself was partly Netanyahu’s sell. After a persuasive February briefing from the Israeli Prime Minister in the Situation Room, Trump said he trusted the military to pull it off, pointing to the swift U.S. operation in Venezuela as proof it could work. In Iran, he was shown clips every morning of explosions across Iranian terrain and remarked to advisers how impressive the military was, seemingly in awe of the scale of the bombs. But he had done little to sell the American public on the war, and soon grew frustrated that his administration wasn’t getting enough external praise.

Videos of big explosions? How naive is that? And no preparation of the public? This war was baked in from the outset of Trump 2.0. How can you not prepare the public? What was going on in the White House?

He resisted ordering the capture of Kharg Island, the launch point for 90% of Iran’s oil exports, telling aides the troops would be “sitting ducks.” His threat to destroy Iranian civilization was improvised, with no input from his national security team. His Easter morning post telling Iran to “Open the F***in’ Strait,” which included “Praise be to Allah,” was also unilateral. Afterwards he asked aides: “How’s it playing?”

My guess: Driven by utter frustration. He could see no way out and couldn’t get Iran to play along with his emotional needs. These were people who were serious about their country, their nation, their civilization. Trump was only serious about his brand.

The two-week ceasefire was announced less than 90 minutes before his own 12-hour ultimatum expired.

As the war dragged on and poll numbers dropped, top aides repeatedly urged Trump to stop giving impromptu media interviews, telling him his contradictory statements were only convincing the public he had no coherent strategy. Trump agreed briefly, then resumed. His chief of staff Susie Wiles pushed him to address the nation to reassure the public he had a plan. Trump resisted, asking what he would even say, admitting he couldn’t declare victory and didn’t know where the war was going. He was eventually persuaded, delivering the April 1st address. It didn’t move public opinion.

Which shows that he wasn’t actually delusional, in the true sense. And yet he did continually declare victory.

Meanwhile Trump held meetings about the White House ballroom he is building, attended midterm fundraisers hours after the war began, and at a donor reception mused aloud about awarding himself the Medal of Honor, citing as justification a scary landing in Iraq during his first term. His press secretary said he was joking.

“We are witnessing astonishing military successes?” So says a McCain goofball. Such as? Killing a handful of top officials, who are quickly replaced while the Iranian war effort doesn’t skip a beat?

“We are witnessing astonishing military successes that do not add up to victory,” said Kori Schake of the American Enterprise Institute, who served on George W. Bush’s National Security Council. “That is squarely on the president and how

Patty Marins sees Trump doubling down.

Patricia Marins @pati_marins64

7h

President Trump Returns to the Offensive

He posted a video on his Truth Social platform a few hours ago in which he once again appears to be betting on a popular uprising inside Iran.

In other words, he’s doubling down on Jewish Nationalist fantasies of regime change. Wait, didn’t that just fail for the umpteenth time? How does the definition of insanity run? Exactly what is the hold that Jewish Nationalists have over Trump—and America?

Here’s a good question:

But if this uprising did not happen at the beginning of the war, why would it occur now, after more than 2,000 deaths, including more than 200 children?

There are already more than 10,000 people hospitalized in Iran due to the attacks.

There are already more than 3 million displaced people in Iran.

Who in their right mind, regardless of any local disagreements they might have, would support an enemy that is bombing their cities and killing their own people?

This is yet another misguided calculation, induced by Netanyahu, who erroneously promoted this idea.

That’s the question: Is this “misguided calculation” simply “induced by Netanayahu”, or is there more to this? Surely, after getting on to two months of recognized failure, Trump got some alternative views? What’s going on?

Quite the contrary: war has the power to highlight a common enemy and activate a survival instinct that fosters national unity and support for the country as a whole.

This move from Trump comes after the recent frictions between the IRGC, Ghalibaf, and Araghchi.

Trump’s statement further weakens the negotiating position of both Iranian officials.

There is an explicit and evident difficulty in properly understanding and operating within the correct temporal window of each action, that is, achieving accurate situational awareness of events while simultaneously developing a coherent and solid long-term strategy.

Yes!