"A carrier would be an extremely tempting target."
Inferably that's why they've stuck the first in the Red Sea, where it's hard for anyone except the Houthis to send (traditionally short-ranged) ASMs at it. The Ford is also being sent somewhere, apparently over USN objections as it's on the tail of a long deployment already.
Regarding reports that Trump is "standing down" because "the killing has stopped" ...
I assume that Iran is being fed huge amounts of ISR type intel by Russia and China. They should be acutely aware of the possibility that Trump would be trying to hoodwink them again into a sense of complacency.
I had assumed that the "stand down" was because of the Pentagon telling him it was not ready... whatever the truth may be you can always count on Trump gaslighting the public.
I think others have captured the essence of the Iranian situation when Trump is involved. Unless he's changed, he thinks he knows more than military generals. He trusts his gut!
With all his personal business failures, why in the world would he trust his intuition? LOL
Iran is another "proxy war" front with Russia and China, and they would love to inflict damage on our military. I don't know what Russia has been sending to Iran, but we will find out if Trump's gut tells Kegsbreath to attack.
This comment is not on the topic of Trump's threat to attack Iran, but I chose this article to post because it is Mark's latest, and so may have more readers. I have just read news about the killing of of Renee Good by an ICE agent, one week ago today.
DHS claims that ICE agent who shot Renee Good suffered ‘internal bleeding’ after the confrontation
The Department of Justice has been hit by a wave of resignations after President Donald Trump’s assistant attorney general for civil rights refused to open an investigation into the ICE killing of a Minnesota woman.
The criminal section of DOJ’s Civil Rights Division usually investigates fatal shootings by law enforcement officers and specializes in determining whether deadly force was justified.
Today's on- line issue of https://vtforeignpolicy.com includess an enlightening article by investigative author Claudio Resta (Today’s Euromaidan Style Zio-US long-planned (attempted) Coup in Tehran, January 14, 2026 )which calls attention to a document published JUNE 2009 by the Brookings Institution entitled 'Which Path To Persia-Options for a New American Strategy Toward Iran", the essence of which could act as a playbook for the crises Iran is now experiencing.
The following outline presents these options in the same chronology one finds in the text as well as what we observe in the more recent history of the Iranian dilemma:
THESIS: "Iran is not considered a sovereign state with its own internal dynamics, but rather a strategic problem to be managed, contained, and, ultimately, reshaped....The country is treated as an object of geopolitical engineering."
The document lists a series of “options” for addressing the Iranian question:
1. Move "from controlled dialogue to economic sanctions,"
2. Then "from covert operations to information warfare"
3. Then 'from support for opposition groups to internal destabilization,"
4. Then "from threat of military confrontation to military confrontation"
5. Then regime change.
"It explicitly refers to economic pressure and social tensions as deliberate instruments":
1. "The protests are not interpreted as spontaneous phenomena, but as operational levers."
2. "Popular discontent is something to be stimulated, amplified, and directed."
"Reread today, that text uncannily resembles an operational map"
1. First economic suffocation,
2. Then the emergence of social unrest;
3. Then the spread of opposing narratives through the media;
4. Then confusion over the opposition’s leadership;
5. Then external actors claiming to act “in the name of the Iranian people” while progressively intensifying pressure."
"The inconvenient truth is that the authors of that document and many of the key players in the current escalation belong to the same globalist network, aligned with the CIA and Mossad, which has applied similar scripts in various parts of the Middle East."
"Iran is simply one of the last remaining open dossiers."
The timely information which Claudio Resta has provided is the critical lens of history, a perspective which allows us to bypass the propaganda generated by politicians and media by giving us a firm grip on the reality that is Iran.
I would not doubt that Trump and his cohorts would do a preemptive strike on Iran without naval assets in the straits.
Given what we know about the modern missile technology available , hypersonic missiles, especially, and the nuclear powered missiles that Russia has and may have shared with Iran.
A naval carrier task force in that area would be a target that could not be ignored. What exactly would the optics be for the United States military and Trump for a major carrier like Gerald Ford taken out in very short order by advanced Iranian missile technology
It would destroy the total illusion that Trump continues to talk about an invincible military that the United States has . That one act of taking out a carrier task force would be total devastation defeat for the United States military.
Russia and China with no longer be intimidated or worry about a naval fleet operating after seeing such an act like that .
So my guess is that they are intentionally not putting any naval assets in that area for that reason they may be smart enough to figure out that type of scenario of losing a carrier and a carrier task force would any type of military credibility they had left .
That would also expose all of our bases in that area that could actually be wiped out fairly quickly also . so in the blink of an eye, our military presence in the Middle East would be gone.
That kind of defeat would signal the absolute end of Donald Trump and his administration there would be demands for this president to step down along with everybody associated with him .
I think quite a bit has changed in the last six months since June. Iran undoubtedly, has gotten help from Russia and probably China.
I think they have hypersonic missiles, probably in greater quantity than they had in June and we cannot forget the Houthis in Yemen and their advanced capabilities at this point. We spent 30 days trying to wipe those people out and failed.
So I’ll go back to my original thinking on that Which is I do not think the DOD wants to lose any capital ships in that situation.
Yeah, to be of much use a carrier would probably be within range of the longer range ballistic missiles that Iran has. The USN might well be worried that Iran would go for them this time. Quite a trophy that would be.
While divining predictive takeaways from Trump's words and actions is about as productive a science as observing a meth-head with his hair on fire, the President's latest words suggest that an imminent Iran strike may not be the foregone conclusion that I and others thought it might be:
I'm trying an experiment, trying to think of Trump having a kind of spiritual life; an actual "moral" compass. Forcing myself to consider that maybe, instead of him saying outright, "Israel forced me to attack Iran because they are hateful nutjobs," he allows himself to appear foolish -- everyone KNOWS he did not destroy Iran's nukes; he knows that everybody knows that. Maybe some people will conclude, "he's just saying that to appease Israelis, because they are nutjobs."
In a similar process, he allows himself to be thought a warmongering bastard who brought about the deaths of so many innocent people, but the fact is, Mossad and evil elements in USA were immediately fingered; Pompeo did the job for him. Trump can not and did not have to say, The Israelis and some of their supporters in America are evil, yet large parts of the public got that message. Then, the curtain will come down on that act. The public is made to see that thousands of Iranians died. Will that change anybody's minds about hating Iranians? I've seen more than a few expressions: "Please, Iran; bomb Israel." Trump did that.
The scene on AirForce One w/ Lindsey Graham gloating about how Iran was being made to suffer: the visual was stunning; the difference in their postures/heights, w/ Graham, bent over, the court jester, a yapping mutt, crazed eyes, bared teeth, while Trump, standing erect looking at Graham with total disregard.
"The play's the thing wherein we'll catch the conscience of the king."
I get it. For a while, I viewed Trump as a heat shield of sorts, going out there as a big, uncouth target to expose (and, ultimately, defeat) the fire for those of us too decent, Catholic, genteel, or otherwise rule-bound, etc. to engage directly with all that filth. He’s not that guy—long our values.
Krainer (again) with Glenn Diesen made a significant point: https://substack.com/@glenndiesen toppling Iran's leadership, or, as Mearsheimer explained to Danny Davis Israel's real intention is to break up Iran as was done to Syria. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Zy3_CP-XeQo-- is not at all to US benefit; Europeans would benefit. Why would Trump take the risk, if Europe is to reap the rewards, Krainer asks (he holds fast to the notion that Trump is rational, and considers second-order principles).
Krainer posits that Trump recognizes that Israel is a drain on USA and is employing the WWF playbook to distance the state.
The International North South Corridor (INST) from St Petersburg to India is 75% complete; construction on a rail line in Iran is set break ground by Nowruz -- March 2026. Russia, China, India and Iran already have significant, built, investment in the project.
Meanwhile, Israel also has transit corridors on the drawing board: their purposes are to cut off/isolate Palestinians -- to create of Israel a ghetto for Jews only.
The Russia-Iran-China INST, added to word that KSA is talking with Egypt and Turkey in opposing UAE plans, suggests that the balance is tipping away from Israeli dreams. May it be so.
Stocks and precious metals are hitting a record high, but just as relevant is the fact that Trump's supporting heading towards the mid-terms in heading for a massive decline. He really believes that an attack on Iran will not only satisfy his Zionist paymasters but win back voters. Meanwhile, Larry Johnson speculates that the person who put a $400k bet on war with Iran starting on 31st Jan is one of Trump's kids. Wouldn't surprise me.
The Architecture of a Crisis Manufactured by Hostile Foreign Powers.
An exclusive exposé on the hidden forces, intelligence networks, and propaganda machinery fueling turmoil in Iran.
https://felixabt.substack.com/p/the-architecture-of-a-crisis-manufactured
Not possible from this to draw conclusions.
DD Geopolitics @DD_Geopolitics
14h
 BREAKING: The USS Abraham Lincoln Carrier Strike Group is being redeployed from the South China Sea to the CENTCOM area of responsibility.
 USS George Washington remains forward-deployed in Yokosuka.
 USS Gerald R. Ford remains in the Caribbean.
Transit to CENTCOM expected to take roughly one week.
"A carrier would be an extremely tempting target."
Inferably that's why they've stuck the first in the Red Sea, where it's hard for anyone except the Houthis to send (traditionally short-ranged) ASMs at it. The Ford is also being sent somewhere, apparently over USN objections as it's on the tail of a long deployment already.
Submarines are probably in the area. But the missiles on board those submarines are nuclear missiles and certainly couldn’t be used in this situation.
Actually, the US has subs that carry Tomahawks:
https://defence-industry.eu/u-s-navy-uses-30-submarine-launched-tomahawk-cruise-missiles-to-strike-targets-in-iran/
However, Tomahawks aren't really suitable for targets that are well dug in, as Iran's missiles are.
Regarding reports that Trump is "standing down" because "the killing has stopped" ...
I assume that Iran is being fed huge amounts of ISR type intel by Russia and China. They should be acutely aware of the possibility that Trump would be trying to hoodwink them again into a sense of complacency.
I had assumed that the "stand down" was because of the Pentagon telling him it was not ready... whatever the truth may be you can always count on Trump gaslighting the public.
Right on the money about how untrustworthy Trump is regarding his actions and comments on foreign affairs.
I think others have captured the essence of the Iranian situation when Trump is involved. Unless he's changed, he thinks he knows more than military generals. He trusts his gut!
With all his personal business failures, why in the world would he trust his intuition? LOL
Iran is another "proxy war" front with Russia and China, and they would love to inflict damage on our military. I don't know what Russia has been sending to Iran, but we will find out if Trump's gut tells Kegsbreath to attack.
This comment is not on the topic of Trump's threat to attack Iran, but I chose this article to post because it is Mark's latest, and so may have more readers. I have just read news about the killing of of Renee Good by an ICE agent, one week ago today.
DHS claims that ICE agent who shot Renee Good suffered ‘internal bleeding’ after the confrontation
https://www.yahoo.com/news/articles/dhs-claims-ice-agent-shot-184614091.html?fr=sycsrp_catchall
The Department of Justice has been hit by a wave of resignations after President Donald Trump’s assistant attorney general for civil rights refused to open an investigation into the ICE killing of a Minnesota woman.
The criminal section of DOJ’s Civil Rights Division usually investigates fatal shootings by law enforcement officers and specializes in determining whether deadly force was justified.
https://www.yahoo.com/news/articles/mass-resignations-rock-doj-wake-152338556.html?fr=sycsrp_catchall
This is definitely a related story:
Moment ICE agents drag ‘disabled woman’ from car in Minneapolis
https://www.yahoo.com/news/articles/moment-ice-agents-drag-disabled-204137150.html?fr=sycsrp_catchall
Today's on- line issue of https://vtforeignpolicy.com includess an enlightening article by investigative author Claudio Resta (Today’s Euromaidan Style Zio-US long-planned (attempted) Coup in Tehran, January 14, 2026 )which calls attention to a document published JUNE 2009 by the Brookings Institution entitled 'Which Path To Persia-Options for a New American Strategy Toward Iran", the essence of which could act as a playbook for the crises Iran is now experiencing.
The following outline presents these options in the same chronology one finds in the text as well as what we observe in the more recent history of the Iranian dilemma:
THESIS: "Iran is not considered a sovereign state with its own internal dynamics, but rather a strategic problem to be managed, contained, and, ultimately, reshaped....The country is treated as an object of geopolitical engineering."
The document lists a series of “options” for addressing the Iranian question:
1. Move "from controlled dialogue to economic sanctions,"
2. Then "from covert operations to information warfare"
3. Then 'from support for opposition groups to internal destabilization,"
4. Then "from threat of military confrontation to military confrontation"
5. Then regime change.
"It explicitly refers to economic pressure and social tensions as deliberate instruments":
1. "The protests are not interpreted as spontaneous phenomena, but as operational levers."
2. "Popular discontent is something to be stimulated, amplified, and directed."
"Reread today, that text uncannily resembles an operational map"
1. First economic suffocation,
2. Then the emergence of social unrest;
3. Then the spread of opposing narratives through the media;
4. Then confusion over the opposition’s leadership;
5. Then external actors claiming to act “in the name of the Iranian people” while progressively intensifying pressure."
"The inconvenient truth is that the authors of that document and many of the key players in the current escalation belong to the same globalist network, aligned with the CIA and Mossad, which has applied similar scripts in various parts of the Middle East."
"Iran is simply one of the last remaining open dossiers."
The timely information which Claudio Resta has provided is the critical lens of history, a perspective which allows us to bypass the propaganda generated by politicians and media by giving us a firm grip on the reality that is Iran.
Yes, very famous article. The usual suspects behind it, and you can bet that years of planning went into it.
A new story about ICE agents:
Moment ICE agents drag ‘disabled woman’ from car in Minneapolis
https://www.yahoo.com/news/articles/moment-ice-agents-drag-disabled-204137150.html?fr=sycsrp_catchall
I would not doubt that Trump and his cohorts would do a preemptive strike on Iran without naval assets in the straits.
Given what we know about the modern missile technology available , hypersonic missiles, especially, and the nuclear powered missiles that Russia has and may have shared with Iran.
A naval carrier task force in that area would be a target that could not be ignored. What exactly would the optics be for the United States military and Trump for a major carrier like Gerald Ford taken out in very short order by advanced Iranian missile technology
It would destroy the total illusion that Trump continues to talk about an invincible military that the United States has . That one act of taking out a carrier task force would be total devastation defeat for the United States military.
Russia and China with no longer be intimidated or worry about a naval fleet operating after seeing such an act like that .
So my guess is that they are intentionally not putting any naval assets in that area for that reason they may be smart enough to figure out that type of scenario of losing a carrier and a carrier task force would any type of military credibility they had left .
That would also expose all of our bases in that area that could actually be wiped out fairly quickly also . so in the blink of an eye, our military presence in the Middle East would be gone.
That kind of defeat would signal the absolute end of Donald Trump and his administration there would be demands for this president to step down along with everybody associated with him .
What about subs?
Last time there was a carrier task force in the Med. Dunno about the Arabian Sea or Indian Ocean. But there was one, at least, involved.
I think quite a bit has changed in the last six months since June. Iran undoubtedly, has gotten help from Russia and probably China.
I think they have hypersonic missiles, probably in greater quantity than they had in June and we cannot forget the Houthis in Yemen and their advanced capabilities at this point. We spent 30 days trying to wipe those people out and failed.
So I’ll go back to my original thinking on that Which is I do not think the DOD wants to lose any capital ships in that situation.
Yeah, to be of much use a carrier would probably be within range of the longer range ballistic missiles that Iran has. The USN might well be worried that Iran would go for them this time. Quite a trophy that would be.
While divining predictive takeaways from Trump's words and actions is about as productive a science as observing a meth-head with his hair on fire, the President's latest words suggest that an imminent Iran strike may not be the foregone conclusion that I and others thought it might be:
https://www.zerohedge.com/military/us-withdrawing-some-personnel-qatar-air-base-over-iran-threat (Link does not reflect current title, "Trump Appears To De-Escalate Iran Rhetoric, 'Killing Has Stopped' - Oil Tumbles")
Now watch all the neocons flood social media with "Trump Always Chickens Out" stuff--as if that's a bad thing.
I'm trying an experiment, trying to think of Trump having a kind of spiritual life; an actual "moral" compass. Forcing myself to consider that maybe, instead of him saying outright, "Israel forced me to attack Iran because they are hateful nutjobs," he allows himself to appear foolish -- everyone KNOWS he did not destroy Iran's nukes; he knows that everybody knows that. Maybe some people will conclude, "he's just saying that to appease Israelis, because they are nutjobs."
In a similar process, he allows himself to be thought a warmongering bastard who brought about the deaths of so many innocent people, but the fact is, Mossad and evil elements in USA were immediately fingered; Pompeo did the job for him. Trump can not and did not have to say, The Israelis and some of their supporters in America are evil, yet large parts of the public got that message. Then, the curtain will come down on that act. The public is made to see that thousands of Iranians died. Will that change anybody's minds about hating Iranians? I've seen more than a few expressions: "Please, Iran; bomb Israel." Trump did that.
The scene on AirForce One w/ Lindsey Graham gloating about how Iran was being made to suffer: the visual was stunning; the difference in their postures/heights, w/ Graham, bent over, the court jester, a yapping mutt, crazed eyes, bared teeth, while Trump, standing erect looking at Graham with total disregard.
"The play's the thing wherein we'll catch the conscience of the king."
I get it. For a while, I viewed Trump as a heat shield of sorts, going out there as a big, uncouth target to expose (and, ultimately, defeat) the fire for those of us too decent, Catholic, genteel, or otherwise rule-bound, etc. to engage directly with all that filth. He’s not that guy—long our values.
The most dangerous thing about him is his assumption about escalation control, that he can decide how and when wars start and end.
Nope! the most dangerous thing is that he is batshit crazy.
Or, as Russia politely has said on a number of occasions, they prefer "predictable" Presidents. ;)
Begging MiH participants forbearance --
Krainer (again) with Glenn Diesen made a significant point: https://substack.com/@glenndiesen toppling Iran's leadership, or, as Mearsheimer explained to Danny Davis Israel's real intention is to break up Iran as was done to Syria. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Zy3_CP-XeQo-- is not at all to US benefit; Europeans would benefit. Why would Trump take the risk, if Europe is to reap the rewards, Krainer asks (he holds fast to the notion that Trump is rational, and considers second-order principles).
Krainer posits that Trump recognizes that Israel is a drain on USA and is employing the WWF playbook to distance the state.
The International North South Corridor (INST) from St Petersburg to India is 75% complete; construction on a rail line in Iran is set break ground by Nowruz -- March 2026. Russia, China, India and Iran already have significant, built, investment in the project.
Meanwhile, Israel also has transit corridors on the drawing board: their purposes are to cut off/isolate Palestinians -- to create of Israel a ghetto for Jews only.
The Russia-Iran-China INST, added to word that KSA is talking with Egypt and Turkey in opposing UAE plans, suggests that the balance is tipping away from Israeli dreams. May it be so.
Stocks and precious metals are hitting a record high, but just as relevant is the fact that Trump's supporting heading towards the mid-terms in heading for a massive decline. He really believes that an attack on Iran will not only satisfy his Zionist paymasters but win back voters. Meanwhile, Larry Johnson speculates that the person who put a $400k bet on war with Iran starting on 31st Jan is one of Trump's kids. Wouldn't surprise me.