Trita Parsi On The Iran War Everyone Expects

Trita Parsi tries sketching out three possible scenarios for the coming conflict, which is a difficult task given the irrationality of it all. I mean, getting inside the heads of fanatics?

We’ll start with the Middle East case against more war—pretty much a no brainer. No non-colonial player wants war. Only colonialist Anglo-Zionist players benefit from chaos and human suffering. Only they exult it chaos and human suffering:

Trita Parsi @tparsi

There is very strong opposition in the region to US military attack and regime change in Iran from countries that have no love for the Islamic Republic, such as Turkey, Saudi Arabia, and Pakistan.

How do we explain this?

The two main factors are:

1. They fear that the intervention will not lead to a stable democracy in Iran but rather chaos and potentially even civil war. This will produce a massive refugee crisis that will destabilize the entire region, save Israel (even the civil war in Syria did not create refugee flows to Israel - they went to Lebanon, Jordan, Turkey - and of course Europe)

2. But there is also a broader geopolitical factor at play here. Ever since the US essentially lifted all restraints on Israel during the Biden admin, regional players have started to see Israel’s aggressive and reckless foreign policy as a direct threat to them (Israel has bombed 7 countries in the region since Oct 7, 2023). If the alliance with the US does NOT protect you from what these countries see as Israel’s designs for regional hegemony, then you will need a new configuration aimed at balancing against Israel. Saudi Arabia, Pakistan, and Turkey have moved in this direction. Though Iran is not part of this configuration, it does serve as a buffer against Israel. Chaos in Iran - or a pro-Israeli puppet being installed in Tehran - is seen as a very dangerous blow to the effort to balance against Israel’s increasingly aggressive regional posture.

By the way, this plays into Doug Macgregor’s comment regarding the militarization of BRICS. Every one of these countries has either applied for or is exploring membership in BRICS.

Now here are Parsi’s three scenarios:

Trita Parsi @tparsi

Much indicates now that a US/Israeli war with Iran is imminent.

I see three scenarios: 1) A limited strike, mainly symbolic so that Trump can claim victory and then move to talks.

2) Regime decapitation by attacking most but not all political and IRGC leaders, but with the aim of having someone else from within the system take over afterwards in order to avoid instability. Followed by a deal manifesting Iranian capitulation.

3) A combination of 2 but with massive bombardment of Iran’s military capabilities afterward to ensure that Iran is set back decades and cannot pose any challenge to Israel for the foreseeable future. Think Syria after Assad fell.

Of these three, I find option 1 very unlikely.

The argument against option 2 is that the Israelis would not accept it. Netanyahu has been very very silent publicly, which he probably would not have been if option 2 was the one favored by Trump.

The argument against option 3 is that it would likely require far more US assets in the region and we do not see that - at least not quite yet.

Specifically, no carriers in the vicinity so far. Is this the fear factor? A carrier would be an extremely tempting target. What country would not want to count coup on a carrier—with an anti-ship missile?

Of course, plans rarely survive contact with reality. Plenty of reasons why things won’t play out as the US and Israel may have intended, including of course, how Iran responds/retaliates.

A comparison with Korea is helpful with regard to that last paragraph. Really:

Armchair Warlord @ArmchairW

US infrastructure on the Persian Gulf aimed at containing Iran, with a string of bases in Kuwait, Qatar, Bahrain, and the UAE, was developed in an era when the Iranians had limited and inaccurate standoff weapons.

Now all those bases exist under a dense missile umbrella. x.com/cirnosad/statu…

US bases in South Korea have faced a similar problem in recent years, with forward garrisons like Camp Casey going from safe assembly areas in 1954 to easily-ranged kill boxes seventy years later as KPA artillery has improved.

Camp Humphries south of Seoul exists for a reason.

6:32 PM · Jan 13, 2026·

Glenn Diesen @Glenn_Diesen

10h

The most dangerous thing about Trump is his assumption about escalation control, that he can decide how and when wars start and end. Last time Trump, launched a surprise attack on Iran and then stopped the war when it did not go as planned - then began regrouping and preparing for a do-over. This time Iran may launch a pre-emptive strike if the US is about to attack. The Iranian response to a US attack could be overwhelming, and such a conflict could also pull in China, Russia, Pakistan and other regional actors.

Sed contra:

MenchOsint @MenchOsint

2h

 Last time the US attacked Iran, there were ISR missions along the border for days before.

Today there are no aircraft carrier, no naval group, and we haven’t seen any Rivet Joint operating over the Persian Gulf since a while.

Imo, it would be very surprising - and a big gamble - if Trump decided to attack now.

Lastly, but it’s all connected …

The Kobeissi Letter @KobeissiLetter

14h

Current situation:

1. Stocks = Record high

2. Gold = Record high

3. Silver = Record high

4. Home Prices = Record high

5. Copper = Record high

6. Platinum = Record high

7. Money Market Funds = Record high

8. US Debt = Record high

9. Deficit Spending = Record high

10. Household Debt = Record high

When everything hits a record high at the same exact time, it’s not a coincidence.

Fiat currencies are depreciating.