To Escalate Or Not--And Who Will Do It?

When I got home today I spent some time listening to a couple of people arguing that Trump will revert to war, sooner or later. Regular readers will know that my view is that, at this point, Iran actually wants the war to continue. Thus their floated plan to ban USrael from using the Strait of Hormuz is clearly—to me—goading Trump to put up or shut up. And if Trump puts up, he’ll be expending military capital that the Anglo-Zionist Empire can ill afford to just blow off. Which serves Iran’s overall strategy—re the US—of ejecting the US military from the region.

Doug Macgregor’s view is that Trump will escalate either because of his personal psychology (he’s a gambler) or because he’s being blackmailed—or, I suppose, a little of both. It’s a straightforward theory and worth considering, and it’s sprinkled with some shrewd observations. Here he is, talking to Danny Davis:

Col Doug Macgregor: All Out War w/Iran Getting Unavoidable

From the Iranian standpoint, they’ve captured the strategic high ground. They hold the initiative. We’re now in the position of trying to regain it. How do we regain it? The only way to regain it is to attack Iran. How do you attack Iran? Are we going to do something new and different from what we’ve done in the past? I think that’s pretty tough. So, what are you going to do? I think you’re going to do what you’ve done before with greater force and greater intensity--if you can do it.

That “if” is the fly in the ointment. Trump today said that’s not a problem—we’ll simply strip all the munitions from our bases around the world. Xi and Putin must be pinching themselves, while erstwhile “allies” of the US, well …

You know, this is kind of a return to what what we call the gamblers’s fallacy, Dan. You know, Trump is a gambler and he says, “I always win. I’m a lucky guy. I always win. I know. One more throw and I can win.” And I think that’s on his mind now, that he’s going to roll the dice again on the assumption that this time with every B-52, every B1, every B2, every aircraft that currently is flyable, with every bomb and munition that we can scrape together that still is precise in some way. All of that will be hurled at at Iran. And this time, it’s going to “work.”

This next is also true and, as Mac stressed yesterday, the same people who bought the presidency for Trump also own both parties in Congress. Mac’s fear is that those people might be able to promise Trump immunity from impeachment by buying his way out of it.

The other thing that we can’t lose sight of is that the people that put Trump into office are the ones that have been pushing this war, and they want this war to go on. The job now is to utterly destroy Iran. If you can’t change the government, if you can’t push the population into revolt--and all of that is nonsense; it was never going to happen--then what do you do? Well, you destroy Iran. And that’s where we are.

Tucker Carlson back in 2023 brought me on his show up at his residence in New England and the first question out of his mouth was, “Do you think we’re on the road to war with Iran?” And I unhesitatingly said, “Yes. He subsequently went to the White House a couple of years later, met with President Trump, and then he reported after he met with him that Donald Trump fully understood the pitfalls--in other words, the problems with a war against Iran. He understood the risks. He understood the implications, even the ramifications, strategically for us.

Tucker left the Oval Office satisfied that the president understood what he was getting into. And he concluded that the president would not get into it as a result. Well, he was wrong. What the president knew then and understands now, he’s done anyway. People say, “Well, this man can’t be this stupid.” He is not a stupid man. Emotionally unbalanced--there are a lot of problems there. But this is not somebody who is stupid. He may not be well read or well-versed in the world that we live in overseas, beyond our borders. But this man is not stupid. He understands what he started and he understands what he’s doing. So when you look at this and you say, “Well, then what is going on?” You have to reach one of two conclusions. The first one is, “Well, I started this.” It’s the gambler’s fallacy. “I’ve got to finish it. One more throw of the dice and I’ll win.” The second possibility is that people have something on him--something that is so powerful that he cannot possibly deviate from the path that he’s on.

DD: In 2021 when you were the special adviser to the Secretary of Defense, you came up with what I consider to be a brilliant plan to get all of our troops out of Afghanistan in a coordinated manner before the end of Trump’s term. You even went so far as to actually get him to sign an execution order, which was subsequently sabotaged by the chairman of the joint chiefs of staff and the acting secretary of defense. You mentioned that you don’t think Trump’s a stupid man. He came to the right conclusion, but then got talked out of it.

Mac: ... He was talked out of it by people in his own administration. That included the Secretary of Defense at the time. It also included Kash Patel, who went over with Mr. Miller, the Secretary of Defense. They joined hands with Mitch McConnell and several other people from the Hill and they all said, “Oh, you can’t do this. We’ve already made commitments. We’ve talked to allies. We’ve this and that and everything else.” And then Trump backed down and he said, “Well, what can I do? If I can’t get everybody out, then what can I do?” It’s the old, old half pregnancy thing. And that’s a political problem. No politician wants to bring the child to full term and then be responsible for it. So Trump backed down and the result that we saw under Biden was terrible and could have been avoided. This is one of the reasons that people accuse Trump of backing out on a number of different things, but this time around [Trump’s war on Iran] I don’t see any evidence for that. Maybe I’m wrong, but I just haven’t seen it.

Devil’s Advocate here. Trump has actually TACOed repeatedly in this war. And when he signed the MOU he explicitly stated his reason for that TACO—he didn’t want to be Herbert Hoover and lead the world into another Great Depression. That consideration is almost certainly a major factor behind Trump’s hesitations. If he’s not stupid—as Mac maintains—then he’s fully aware that economic chaos will sink his presidency faster than military defeat (assuming minimal casualties). Mac is very attuned to the economic issues, but for some reason doesn’t factor it in to his theory on escalation.

Saudi Arabia is viewed like the UAE--as very duplicitous, as playing all sides to the middle. And so the Iranians, their attitude is that these people have screwed us, taken advantage of us, hurt us, harmed us, cooperated with our enemies--the Israelis and others--on a routine basis. So Iran has no compunction or hesitation whatsoever about destroying them. I think President Trump realizes that and I’m sure that he has been reluctant to take action. However, the Israelis [unlike Trump] don’t care--and their agents in Washington don’t care. They couldn’t care less. As far as they’re concerned, everybody in the region can die if it’s going to promote their dominance, their control of the region. I mean, frankly, that’s it. All you have to do is listen to the Israeli leadership. They make that abundantly clear.

So, [choice] number two [for Trump]—do nothing. That’s not up for consideration. Trump can’t sustain himself politically. Money that is vital to his survival in the White House to deliver the Congress is at risk. Remember the the hundreds of millions of dollars that have been assembled in various funds to destroy people like Thomas Massie or for that matter Marjorie Taylor Green or anyone who opposes this war with Iran. Those funds can also be employed to destroy Donald Trump—and Donald Trump knows that. Right now, those funds are being committed to his support and defense. Those funds are vital to his survival because they can prevent any impeachment. So, doing nothing is a non-starter.

I also listened to Marion and Brandon Weichert. Here’s Mario’s summary, below. Brandon thinks Iran is overreaching—that they could get a really good deal right now. He also thinks that China might balk at Iranian overreaching. Here are my reservations, up front.

First of all, I suspect that Iran’s continued escalations will be relatively cautious—in the sense that they won’t provoke, say, a tactical nuke strike.

Unlike Mac, I’m not sure that Brandon gets that this is a religious war. It’s a war against the Sunni Arabs who are in bed with the Anglo-Zionists, but it’s also a religious war against the modern liberal West in general. Now that war has been forced on Iran, Iran cannot stop until the US is ejected from the region and Israel—the outpost of the liberal Western order—is brought to heel.

As I said above, I doubt that China (and Russia) will stop Iran from escalating. Trump’s notion of stripping US bases around the world to feed those assets into the Persian Gulf shredding machine is music to the ears of Xi and Putin. They will want to escalate their own aid to Iran, because they know this war is existential for the entire non-Anglo-Zionist world. And this will free their own hands.

Brandon worries that Iran will “lose” the Sunni Arab Gulf states. I’m with Mac. I don’t think Iran cares about that. The Shiite Iraqis will be fine with that, and will be looking at absorbing Kuwait. There are also large Shiite populations on the west coast of the Persian Gulf—including in Saudi Arabia. The really influential Sunni countries—Egypt and Turkey—will not, IMO, join and Anglo-Zionist jihad against Iran. Their future is with BRICS.

Brandon’s bottom line is that “the war isn’t over yet.” I agree with that, because Iran doesn’t want the war to be over. Brandon is fully aware that no escalation will work. But, if Mac is right and Trump isn’t stupid, Trump may be smart enough to understand that could make a disaster into catastrophe. I think Trump knows that, or he never would have signed the MOU. Brandon’s position amounts to arguing that Trump, the narcissist, will commit suicide.

This, of course, is the dilemma facing Trump. Trump needs an exit. Iran is carefully escalating, playing on Trump’s ego, to keep Trump in a sure loser war of attrition leading to economic disaster.

Mario Nawfal @MarioNawfal

5h

 Iran may be transforming a strategic victory into a catastrophic miscalculation.

Geopolitical analyst Brandon Weichert says that for weeks, Iran had gained the upper hand.

America’s long-range missile stockpiles were running low, its Gulf posture had become more vulnerable, regional states wanted the fighting to stop, and Tehran had the leverage.

Now, Brandon thinks Iran may be pushing that leverage too far.

During the interview, reports emerged that Iranian lawmakers were preparing legislation that would reportedly:

- Ban U.S and Israeli vessels from transiting the Strait of Hormuz.

- Block cargo linked to Israel.

- Demand compensation from countries that supported the war.

- And impose penalties of up to 20% of the cargo value on violators.

At the same time, reports suggested Iran was seeking transit fees of between 5% and 7% of each cargo’s value.

If those numbers hold, Brandon believes the entire diplomatic process could collapse. Not because Iran lacks leverage, but because it may be asking for more than the world is prepared to accept.

His concern isn’t Washington, it’s everyone else.

Countries that quietly shifted toward Iran after the war may begin asking whether Tehran is now overplaying its hand.

As above, Brandon is referring to the Gulf Arab states—which are midgets. Including Saudi Arabia.

And if that happens, Trump gets exactly what he needs.

A political justification to walk away from negotiations, argue that Iran was never serious about peace, and escalate the war.

Brandon believes that changes everything.

Because the fastest way to lose a winning position is convincing your opponent they have nothing left to lose.

We shall see.