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TomA's avatar

My guess is that Russia was intending to make its final offer to Ukraine at the Istanbul meeting tomorrow. A take it or leave it finale. If Ukraine accepts, then a peace deal is possible. If they decline, then the gloves come off and Russia commits to a full military solution. Under the latter, they would likely continue the pretense of negotiations, but it would only be for show and not taken seriously.

The attacks on the airfields are clearly an attempt at a Hail Mary pass. They were intended to provoke Russia into an extreme response and change the geopolitical and military dynamics of the war. In the former sense, it puts pressure on Putin to be more aggressive. In the latter sense, it reinforces the notion that all is not lost for Ukraine and drones can become an equalizer if used strategically.

This is a game of chess and Russia will likely take some time to plan its response. There is, however, an acceleration now to the escalation cycle. This suggests that the European WEF stooges are truly getting desperate. Their financial collapse may be coming sooner than anyone thinks.

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Manul's avatar

I also read "The confirmed death toll stands at seven, with over 90 individuals injured following a series of four coordinated rail line explosions across Russia." (https://x.com/Zlatti_71/status/1929135422640128434).

Per this post, the drones attacking the bombers were launched from INSIDE Russia. Hmmm. While perhaps militarily insignificant (we still don't know the damage), these sorts of attacks are designed to demoralize the population and the will to continue to fight, and to show that there's still life left in the Ukrainian resistance.

I have long maintained that we are playing with a WW3 type event when Russia is provoked by the West in the fashion that has occurred since 2014 with the CIA-led coup and the arming of Ukraine. What has been puzzling to me is the Russian response, which I have read is deliberate and slow, seeking to minimize civilian casualties and also attriting the UKR army. Three years of war have demonstrated that missile attacks here and there and some taking of UKR soil is unlikely to see a clear Russian military victory anytime soon. Will the Russians need to have soldiers in Kiev for this war to end?

So what's next? In this "fog of war", we'll have to wait to find out what really happened and what the Russian response will be. Tit-for-tat doesn't accomplish anything. If the Russian goals are as Putin stated (no NATO for UKR, removal of sanctions, recognition of the Russian occupied UKR territory as Russia), then it seems there is a long way to go and these latest attacks will only serve to stiffen the Russian resolve to NOT negotiate a settlement.

None of our political leaders seems to recognize the war for what it is and our role in provoking it and continuing it. Trump labeling Putin as "crazy" and warning Putin that he is "playing with fire" is the US diplomatic solution to ending the conflict?

What's missing from many of the discussions is the absolute misery of the Ukrainian population and the UKR and Russian soldiers. I'm sure that most want this to end but it won't, as long as the leaders have other goals.

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