The Trump Effect

It’s taking effect, or so it seems. People are coming to the realization that Trump is serious about MAGA, as he sees it. America’s place in the world vis a vis BRICS will doubtless prove difficult for Trump, the Middle East as well. To succeed, Trump will need to be flexible—far more so than his rhetoric and appointments would suggest at first glance. Nevertheless, Trump appears to be taking control on the domestic front. You can tell from the fear on the left. Of course, it remains that his control over the political class remains tenuous. We’ll see. He’s attempting somewhat novel initiatives to get the Republicans in line, such as having Elon Musk attack Mikey Johnson’s budget blowout.

The Washington Examiner came out with an article after Trump’s quite impressive press conference, which captures a new Trump, one we really haven’t seen previously. I watched a portion of that conference this morning, and came away with a similar impression. I was quite struck by Trump’s calm and measured responses:

Trump wipes the smile off Obama’s face

Extended excerpt:

His press conference at Mar-a-Lago on Dec. 16 revealed a man almost preternaturally at ease with himself, his mission, his domestic support, and his acceptance abroad. His tone was measured, even somewhat humble, despite some bragging. When he dismissed questions, as he justifiably did once or twice, it was not done angrily or in a way that looked petty but with an assurance that widened the gap between himself and his erstwhile adversaries.

The press asked questions almost deferentially, showing respect for his office and a quietude rooted in the magnitude of his political triumph and mandate. The spectacle was a stunning contrast with the media maelstrom of his first term, when the likes of CNN’s Jim Acosta, posing vainly as a modern-Danton or people’s tribune, treated Trump as though he were axiomatically as illegitimate a president as Hillary Clinton and others bitterly claimed.

But as the days and weeks of the current presidential transition pass by, the significance of the stunning electoral outcome on Nov. 5 is settling on Trump, the nation, and the rest of the world.

Van Jones, one of the Left’s level-headed analysts, captured the truth lucidly in an interview with CNN’s Chris Cillizza. When Cillizza asked Jones how such a supposedly unlikely guy as Trump “became the one that cracked the code,” Jones rejected the premise of the question.

“Can we cut it out? … Donald Trump is smarter than me, you, and all critics. You know how we know? Because he has the White House, the Senate, the House, the Supreme Court, the popular vote, he has a massive media ecosystem bigger than the mainstream built around him and for him, and a religious fervor in a political movement around him, and his best buddy is the richest person in the history of the world, and the most relevant Kennedy is with him. This dude is a phenomenon. He is the most powerful human on Earth in our lifetime. And we’re still saying, ‘How is this guy doing it?’ We look like idiots.”

Jones’s litany would give anyone confidence in their position and their power. Trump is the only president other than Grover Cleveland 130 years ago to win reelection after defeat. Assuming he completes his second term in office, he will have led the Republican Party for as long as Ronald Reagan and George H.W. Bush combined. He was impeached twice, hounded by corrupt officials in a banana-state-style lawfare campaign, convicted on 34 trumped-up felonies, faced two assassination attempts, was shot once, and faced voters who’d been told by what was once the opinion-forming elite that he was manifestly ineligible for election and should be rejected.

In the face of all this, America essentially said, “Stuff that,” and chose him to return to office, sweeping all swing states with a near landslide in the Electoral College and a plurality of the popular vote.

Whereas in 2016, Trump could be seen as an aberration and supported by fewer voters than opposed him, today, no such self-deception is available to his detractors. The change means that he is approaching governing with a more radical reform agenda, which he is articulating with more sober and persuasive rhetoric. Although he pledged in 2016 to “drain the swamp,” he approached that task, if at all, only tentatively despite much braggadocio. Now, he is arriving in office more determined in his goals but more restrained and deliberate in his language. It has produced in him less swagger and more solidity. His opponents and critics have yet to work out how to respond.

During this past week Trump extrated a huge—and hugely humiliating—settlement from ABC and George What’s-his-name. He also launched a fascinating lawsuit against the Iowa newspaper that ran the fake poll just before the election. The message seems clear: Trump intends to use the courts to extract payback and to instill a degree of fear in his persecutors. Trump appears to be choosing his targets carefully and for maximum effect. This could become very interesting, because it could expand after January 20.

For the Trump effect overseas, Ireland offers a fascinating example. Granted, Ivan Yates stipulates that Ireland is a somewhat unique case, but other countries may find themselves in at least similar situations. Again, the key is choosing targets carefully for maximum effect. Trump does understand that the best deals are those that both parties like. Note that Yates sounds a similar note to that of the article above, regarding the magnitude of Trump’s comeback win:

MichaeloKeeffe @Mick_O_Keeffe

Dec 16

Ivan Yates lays it out perfectly.

The Irish economy and our status as a wealthy country rely on foreign investment, and it's all about to go away.

*** Transcript of a partial video clip ***

... the success of the Republican Party, because people are, rightly, focusing on Trump, but if you actually look:

• The Senate, 53 votes to 47, became Republican

• The House of Representatives, 220 to 215, the Republicans won

Now this is an existential threat to Ireland, because their [Trump’s] big economic idea, corporate America, is reshore what has been the success story for Ireland. So, right as we speak, today, the German government has collapsed. Last week the French government collapsed. And, yes, we're rolling in money down to one thing. And that is, corporation tax in 2014 was $4 billion, now it's $30 billion. It's paid for everything and it's a complete outlier in the world. And a lot of people have their eyes on this. And if you look at the top tax payers, in terms of Microsoft, in terms of Google, and in terms of Apple, they account for nearly 40% of this $40 billion. And if Trump is successful, and if the Republicans are successful, at transferring the IP--the intellectual property--to America this is a huge [threat?]. So it's not a global recession, it's a fiscal [exchequerist?]. Plus, the other big firms, Pfizer, MSD, Johnson and Johnson--he's proposing tariffs, because we're exporting those pharmas and chemicals into the US. So all I'm saying is, that we really need to have some diplomatic--because this is a uniquely Irish problem--approach to this in a time when Ireland's influence is going to wane in Washington, and we need to bring our "A" game to protect what we have.

Q: So you're saying we should be nicer to Donald Trump?

What I'm saying is this. We need to convince the boardrooms of corporate America that it's in their interest to stay here.

Of course, the big question for the Irish is, what does Ireland have to offer Trump? Ireland does have political influence in America far beyond its size due to its diaspora’s talent for politics. Still …