The Current Shape Of US Geopolitical Strategery
While trying to get a handle on the significance of the FTX campaign finance story, I’ve also been keeping an eye on developments in the US war on Russia. That war is, in a very real sense, a proxy for a war on the world—Europe, China, and beyond. So far the war on Europe has been a huge success. Europe has been brought to heel, vassalized—as it were. That includes the major European power, Germany, thanks to military sabotage of Germany’s energy links to Russia.
On the other hand, the war on Russia has largely backfired. The sanctions war that was supposed to bring Russian to its knees and force regime change has proven ineffective, even strengthening the Russian economy in some ways. That failure has led to a greater emphasis on the military front than was probably anticipated, including the use of US/UK contractors (i.e., mercenaries) to man US/NATO systems such as HIMARS on the ground in Ukraine. The result has been that the Ukrainian military has been largely degraded and reduced to dependence not only on foreign equipment—which has proven inadequate to its needs—but even to dependence on foreign military personnel and the drafting of overage men.
So it is that we’re seeing attempts at negotiating on the part of the US. Mark Milley, our portly Chair of the JCOS, recently let this cat out of its bag in leaks to the NYT:
Gen. Mark Milley, the chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff. According to US officials, Milley “has made the case in internal meetings that the Ukrainians have achieved about as much as they could reasonably expect on the battlefield before winter sets in and so they should try to cement their gains at the bargaining table.”
The top US general has made no secret of his stance. “When there’s an opportunity to negotiate, when peace can be achieved, seize it,” Milley declared in a public speech this week.
In addition, there have been reports over the last few days that CIA head William Burns has been meeting in Turkey with his approximate Russian counterpart, Sergei Naryshkin. US sources claim that Burns’ intent is to deliver more of the by now standard US stern warnings to Russia against the use of nukes that the US is constantly talking up. That’s all gaslighting to try to maintain some level of public anti-Russian hysteria, of course—nobody seriously thinks Russia is contemplating the use of nukes. The question is, What’s behind this turn to talking?
I see two possibilities. The first is that the US Deep State has come to its senses and wants to negotiate as favorable a settlement as possible to the conflict in Ukraine. The second is that the US is simply trying to buy time, perhaps through a ceasefire.
I would rule out the first alternative. Russia has, in recent weeks, allowed Ukraine and its allies to reoccupy certain limited territories—at great expense of manpower and equipment for Ukraine. But this has occurred in the context of a partial Russian mobilization that is nearing completion—the incorporation of the callups, after updated training, into the overall force structure of the Russian army in the Western Theater. That process is nearing completion, as the US well knows, and, while Ukraine and its NATO commanders may wish to “cement their gains at the bargaining table,” it’s highly unlikely that the Russian side will allow that. To the contrary, the overwhelming likelihood is that sometime within the next few weeks, depending on weather conditions, the Russian army will launch a massive winter offensive. The destruction of Ukraine’s power grid, currently underway, is preparation for that. That offensive is likely to be different in scale and nature than anything we’ve seen heretofore. This time will be different, with the gloves more or less off. The US knows this, too.
While that line of thinking would appear to point toward the US entering into serious negotiations to end a conflict that’s trending toward disaster for the US/NATO, in fact that is unlikely. As just noted, Russia is unlikely to buy into that ploy. Putin has already made it clear that the longer the conflict continue, the steeper will be Russian terms for peace. At this point, Russia is unlikely to settle for anything much short of its maximalist demands—if at all. At the same time, while the US finds itself between a rock and a hard place in Ukraine, to accept defeat will likely be unacceptable to the Neocon foreign policy establishment. Defeat in Ukraine—meaning, accepting the demilitarization and neutralization of a rump Ukrainian state subordinate to Russian security concerns—is unacceptable because it can’t be limited. It will lead to something very close to the collapse of NATO.
That leaves us with the second alternative, which amounts to a bluff. Obtaining a ceasefire would provide a military breather and postpone Ukraine’s collapse. At the same time, it would allow additional time for the sanctions war to somehow achieve its purposes—against all current indicators. As with the first alternative, the fundamental problem with this bluff, which smacks of desperation and lack of realism, is that there’s nothing in it for Russia. Russia knows that the US is still at war with Russia and is still gunning for Russian regime change and dismemberment:
Some Sanctions Will Stay On Russia Even After War In Ukraine: Yellen
Authored by Dave DeCamp via AntiWar.com,
Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen said Sunday that she believes some sanctions will remain on Russia even if Moscow reaches a peace deal with Kyiv, demonstrating that the US wants to keep pressure on Russia’s economy for the long term.
That being the case, why would Russia want to give the US a break? I think we’re seeing Russia’s response to these overtures this morning:
Adding to the indications that the US Deep State is determined to continue its war on the World—not just Russia—are other recent developments. You may recall the recent terrorist bombing in Istanbul. Well, Turkey is blaming the US. The reasoning is that the US supports the Kurds in both Iraq and Syria, bordering on Turkey, and Turkey says the perpetrators were Kurds. This follows on “warnings” to Turkey from the US regarding continuing and growing business ties between Turkey and Russia.
The United States is warning Turkey against taking any additional steps to operationalize its Russian-made S-400 air defense system, warning there will be consequences even if that risks pushing Ankara closer to an alliance with Moscow.
The supposition on the Turkish side is obviously that the US is delivering a “message” that the US could open a new terrorist front inside Turkey if Turkey doesn’t toe the US line on Russia.
Turkey is angry and is rejecting US “condolences” and any “messages”:
You can read more about this development at Larry Johnson’s site: ANGRY TURKS AND TALKING TURKEY ABOUT UKRAINE IN TURKIYE? My point is that Turkey is both hyper-strategically placed in a geopolitical sense as well as being country that will not be easy to push around without some serious blowback. Turkey is already saying it has “messages” to send in response to this American “message.”
We know the message that was given to us, we received the message that was given to us and we know what the message was given to us. We will send a very strong message to this message.
With everything that’s going on in Ukraine, in Europe, with China—is this biting off more than even a global hegemon can readily chew? Apparently not in the minds of Neocons, because the US is also attempting to bully India with regard to India’s purchases of Russian oil. India is another country like Turkey—intensely proud and unlikely to forgive and/or forget bullying by would be neocolonializers. Similarly, the US has long relied on cooperation not only from NATO member Turkey (with regard to Russia and the Middle East) but also from India (with regard to China). The Neocon grand strategy is in danger of blowing up the US network of cooperating nations:
Washington Attempts To Bully India Into Cutting Ties With Russia
Authored by Conor Gallagher via NakedCapitalism.com,
For months the US has repeatedly tried to coerce India into cutting ties with Russia, thereby abandoning its national interests. New Delhi, however, continues to spurn American attempts to subject its economy to Washington’s dictates.
The latest fuss concerns the G7 price cap on Russian oil and EU and UK bans on shipping and related services for Russian crude. India continues to have no interest in joining the US-led initiative as it gets a steep discount on oil from Russia and wants to maintain the relationship with a long-time strategic partner. Indian Foreign Affairs Minister Subrahmanyam Jaishankar was just in Moscow on Nov. 8 to discuss continued sales of oil. From the South China Morning Post:
India’s foreign minister hailed New Delhi’s “strong and steady” relationship with Moscow on Tuesday, during his first visit there since Russia invaded Ukraine in February.
Subrahmanyam Jaishankar also declared India’s intention to continue to buy Russian oil, again disregarding the US appeal to allies and partners to isolate Russia from the global markets.
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India joins a list of countries – including Saudi Arabia, Serbia, and Turkey – that are causing heads to explode in Washington for refusing to be bullied into submission.
This all must be coming as a shock in Washington as its Indo-Pacific strategy in recent years has always included a “like-minded” India helping to counter China and do the US’ bidding in southeast Asia. The possibility that India might pursue its own national interests didn’t seem to factor into the strategy.
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Similar to the way Washington is arming Greece and Cyprus in an effort to bully Turkey into breaking off its friendly ties with Russia, the US is doing the same in Pakistan to pressure India. ...
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On Nov. 8 US State Department spokesman Ned Price lectured India on what are in its best interests:
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We’ll have to wait and see if the Indian people get the message because as of now the opposite is true. India’s Observer Research Foundation released poll results on Nov. 2 that showed that 43 percent of Indians regarded Russia as their country’s most reliable partner, which was far ahead of the US at 27 percent.
As usual with Naked Capitalism, the article is long and information packed. I’ll leave it at that, but will add one more excerpt to indicate the way in which Neocon strategery is flying in the face of geopolitical dynamics—Eurasian integration—that will be difficult to sidetrack.
While India and Pakistan are long time enemies—not unlike Iran and Turkey in that regard—Russian diplomacy in conjunction with economic interest is leading these nations to unite in seeking greater Eurasian integration. Even Pakistan, long considered a US “ally”:
While India has been benefitting from the discounted Russian crude, it also wants to maintain good ties with Moscow to avoid pushing Russia closer to China and potentially Pakistan, India’s biggest rivals in Asia.
Pakistan is also now asking the Russian Trade Ministry to introduce a currency swap arrangement to strengthen economic ties between the two countries.
Russia conducts true diplomacy, recognizing the legitimate interests of the nations it works with. The US version is to bully and coerce, without regard to anyone else’s interests. This doesn’t bode well for any new world order.
As stated, the US version is to bully and coerce, without regard to anyone else’s interests, meaning anyone outside of the Washington power base. Who in America supports their endeavors, aside from the media echo chamber?
One hopes that it leads to the collapse of NATO...