The Collective West's Internal Tug Of War Continues
I haven’t cited Clint Ehrlich recently. On January 25th he turned up to do an “emergency” appearance with Tucker, and for just over two and a half minutes the two of them discussed what sending M1 Abrams tanks to Ukraine might mean. For example, maybe this puts the US on the path to nuclear war with Russia:
Well, never say never, right? I’m skeptical on a number of points. First, I’m not convinced that those tanks will ever actually show up in Ukraine, in any of their possible configurations. As I remarked to Ray SoCal this morning, I think this was in major part a strategem designed to snooker the Germans into doing something very stupid: committing to sending Leopard 2 tanks to Ukraine, against their better judgment. On the other hand, I do agree with Ehrlich that it’s a foolish and potentially dangerous move:
The issue isn't that America is providing the Abrams.
It's that there's no limiting principle that makes this the last high-end system we'll deploy to Ukraine.
And, of course, immediately after the announcement the Ukrainians, probably at the prodding of the Neocons, upped the ante—now demanding F16s and even nukes.
Nukes would be “game changers”. Anything much short of that … not so much. Even supposing that the US ever sends 31 Abrams tanks to Ukraine—a monumental logistical undertaking—Ehrlich’s idea that they would somehow spearhead a Ukrainian invasion of Crimea is something I just don’t buy. None of the systems that have been sent to Ukraine have changed the game materially. You don’t have to fully agree with Will Schryver to share my skepticism:
The post-Cold War US military industrial complex is almost certainly the most corrupt, inefficient, and intellectually moribund bureaucracy in human history. It is a black hole of waste and demonstrable ineptitude.
4/5
For example, Tyler Rogoway was touting this new (to Ukraine) system:
But others were quick to point out the new Wunderwaffe’s likely vulnerability to Russia’s world leading air defense systems. In fact, Russia has a system that was specifically designed with SDBs in mind:
Many readers will have already seen the video interview of an Aussie mercenary near Bakhmut, who blows away many of the myths about Wagner. And bear in mind that Wagner, competent and well equipped though they are, is still not the regular Russian Army. This is a relatively brief outtake, but nevertheless revealing:
Now, in addition to the Rand report, which urged—presumably at the bidding of the Pentagon—a negotiated settlement NOW, there is more evidence that the US uniformed military is not on board with the Neocons, per Zerohedge. It’s all couched in doublespeak, but the implications are clear enough:
During a meeting with Ukrainian defense officials on Jan. 20, chairman of the Join Chiefs of Staff Mark Milley didn't make his counterparts too happy when he said, "I still maintain that for this year it would be very, very difficult to militarily eject the Russian forces from all –– every inch of Ukraine and occupied –– or Russian-occupied Ukraine,." He added at the time: "That doesn’t mean it can’t happen. Doesn’t mean it won’t happen, but it’d be very, very difficult."
The Pentagon has backed Milley's assessment in a new classified briefing issued to lawmakers, and reported in Politico. "Ukrainian forces are unlikely to be able to recapture Crimea from Russian troops in the near future, four senior Defense Department officials told House Armed Services Committee lawmakers in a classified briefing."
The publication emphasized that the briefing's contents are sure to "frustrate" Ukrainian leaders, given it's become among their central goals in the war, for which they've argued the West should supply jets and longer-range missiles.
…
It remains, however, that any real or large-scale attempt to mount a Ukrainian offensive in Crimea would have to have the backing of Western allies, given Ukraine's military is at this point completely propped up by the weapons and funds being supplied via NATO countries.
How are the Germans feeling around right now—now that they’re turning out to be the major supplier of frontline main battle tanks to Ukraine, reprising the role of the WW2 Wermacht? They’re not too happy, according to Politico: Berlin Doesn’t Trust Washington. That’s the feeling you get when you begin to have doubts that those Abrams tanks will actually show up:
It turns out that an even bigger fear for Scholz than escalation is that NATO, and in particular the U.S., wouldn’t get involved if Russia were to retaliate against, say Germany. That worry — according to an adviser to the German government — is the reason that Scholz insisted that Washington agree to supply Ukraine with M1 Abrams tanks before the chancellor would lift his veto on delivering German-made Leopard 2 tanks.
Imagine that! Not trusting the people who blew up your gas pipeline to do the right thing if you find yourself in a tight spot with a pissed off nuclear power!
Next question: Do the American people trust Washington and, if not, what are they going to do about it? It’s disturbing that so few Americans are paying attention to cascade of lies they’re being fed:
Meanwhile, as the collective West squabbles, the hot rumor is that Russia is planning new offensives:
I’ve seen no evidence that Russia bluffs, so when Lavrov speaks …
Baron of the Taiga
@baronitaigas
It is alleged by Swiss publication NZZ that the US approached both Kiev and Moscow with a peace deal in mid-January that would have ceded 20% of Ukraine (roughly the territory controlled by Russia now) to Russia.
It was rejected by both sides.
I'm not concerned that so few Americans are paying attention to cascade of lies they’re being fed. The government should be concerned. Nobody cares. I am concerned at a telephone conversation last night with my nephew, who knows EVERYTHING. He told me that Putin will be deposed, possibly assassinated shortly, that the Russians are losing monumentally and have morale and supply problems. I can safely assume he reflects the thinking of those in charge. If so, this conflict will never end. It has become a war of attrition where both sides feel they are gaining and inflicting damage to the enemy every day. Why not continue? Or probably it will end, not with a bang but a whimper. (T.S.Eliot)