I haven’t cited Clint Ehrlich recently. On January 25th he turned up to do an “emergency” appearance with Tucker, and for just over two and a half minutes the two of them discussed what sending M1 Abrams tanks to Ukraine might mean. For example, maybe this puts the US on the path to nuclear war with Russia:
Well, never say never, right? I’m skeptical on a number of points. First, I’m not convinced that those tanks will ever actually show up in Ukraine, in any of their possible configurations. As I remarked to Ray SoCal this morning, I think this was in major part a strategem designed to snooker the Germans into doing something very stupid: committing to sending Leopard 2 tanks to Ukraine, against their better judgment. On the other hand, I do agree with Ehrlich that it’s a foolish and potentially dangerous move:
The issue isn't that America is providing the Abrams.
It's that there's no limiting principle that makes this the last high-end system we'll deploy to Ukraine.
And, of course, immediately after the announcement the Ukrainians, probably at the prodding of the Neocons, upped the ante—now demanding F16s and even nukes.
Nukes would be “game changers”. Anything much short of that … not so much. Even supposing that the US ever sends 31 Abrams tanks to Ukraine—a monumental logistical undertaking—Ehrlich’s idea that they would somehow spearhead a Ukrainian invasion of Crimea is something I just don’t buy. None of the systems that have been sent to Ukraine have changed the game materially. You don’t have to fully agree with Will Schryver to share my skepticism:
The post-Cold War US military industrial complex is almost certainly the most corrupt, inefficient, and intellectually moribund bureaucracy in human history. It is a black hole of waste and demonstrable ineptitude.
4/5
For example, Tyler Rogoway was touting this new (to Ukraine) system:
But others were quick to point out the new Wunderwaffe’s likely vulnerability to Russia’s world leading air defense systems. In fact, Russia has a system that was specifically designed with SDBs in mind:
Many readers will have already seen the video interview of an Aussie mercenary near Bakhmut, who blows away many of the myths about Wagner. And bear in mind that Wagner, competent and well equipped though they are, is still not the regular Russian Army. This is a relatively brief outtake, but nevertheless revealing:
Now, in addition to the Rand report, which urged—presumably at the bidding of the Pentagon—a negotiated settlement NOW, there is more evidence that the US uniformed military is not on board with the Neocons, per Zerohedge. It’s all couched in doublespeak, but the implications are clear enough:
During a meeting with Ukrainian defense officials on Jan. 20, chairman of the Join Chiefs of Staff Mark Milley didn't make his counterparts too happy when he said, "I still maintain that for this year it would be very, very difficult to militarily eject the Russian forces from all –– every inch of Ukraine and occupied –– or Russian-occupied Ukraine,." He added at the time: "That doesn’t mean it can’t happen. Doesn’t mean it won’t happen, but it’d be very, very difficult."
The Pentagon has backed Milley's assessment in a new classified briefing issued to lawmakers, and reported in Politico. "Ukrainian forces are unlikely to be able to recapture Crimea from Russian troops in the near future, four senior Defense Department officials told House Armed Services Committee lawmakers in a classified briefing."
The publication emphasized that the briefing's contents are sure to "frustrate" Ukrainian leaders, given it's become among their central goals in the war, for which they've argued the West should supply jets and longer-range missiles.
…
It remains, however, that any real or large-scale attempt to mount a Ukrainian offensive in Crimea would have to have the backing of Western allies, given Ukraine's military is at this point completely propped up by the weapons and funds being supplied via NATO countries.
How are the Germans feeling around right now—now that they’re turning out to be the major supplier of frontline main battle tanks to Ukraine, reprising the role of the WW2 Wermacht? They’re not too happy, according to Politico: Berlin Doesn’t Trust Washington. That’s the feeling you get when you begin to have doubts that those Abrams tanks will actually show up:
It turns out that an even bigger fear for Scholz than escalation is that NATO, and in particular the U.S., wouldn’t get involved if Russia were to retaliate against, say Germany. That worry — according to an adviser to the German government — is the reason that Scholz insisted that Washington agree to supply Ukraine with M1 Abrams tanks before the chancellor would lift his veto on delivering German-made Leopard 2 tanks.
Imagine that! Not trusting the people who blew up your gas pipeline to do the right thing if you find yourself in a tight spot with a pissed off nuclear power!
Next question: Do the American people trust Washington and, if not, what are they going to do about it? It’s disturbing that so few Americans are paying attention to cascade of lies they’re being fed:
Meanwhile, as the collective West squabbles, the hot rumor is that Russia is planning new offensives:
I’ve seen no evidence that Russia bluffs, so when Lavrov speaks …
"Next question: Do the American people trust Washington and, if not, what are they going to do about it? It’s disturbing that so few Americans are paying attention to cascade of lies they’re being fed:"
Our media, from the big networks to the large news organizations, bear the largest responsibility and shame of whatever is coming for us. Yes, our government is lying to us, but it wouldn't continue if news organizations would alert the country to the danger of continuing this lie, this insanity of continuing to fund and arm Ukraine.
Instead of worrying about a war that they aren’t warned is escalating toward nuclear insanity, I think Americans are preoccupied with the demons reshaping our daily living right now. I read a long article you pointed us to yesterday by Rod Dreher 'The Shadow of One Dark Wing', along with links to another sobering article about the poison and death our culture seems to be gliding towards. I was going to say march, but that implies people are eager for the corruption, as well as our acceptance of prevailing national policies, and gender/queer/LGBTQ/sexual maiming, and other lies shaping our children. I think instead our society is gliding partially unaware toward a meeting with the demons behind the war on innocence of our children led by monsters teaching in our schools and high academia. Of course, our society is lazy, but our society's parents are also busy working, making ends meet, fighting to finance cell phones for their children they believe are an integral and important part of children's lives now and often unaware (of the fact I read) that by nine years old those same children have watched pornography on those phones. Parents have a myriad of important battles to fight now -- from corruption by school boards and lying teachers to physicians who insist on jabbing those children with dozens of vaxxes. I wouldn't want to be a parent of a young child today, it's hard enough to have watched the horrific outcomes of the three years of the pandemic and what happened to high school education for our older grandchildren.
I try to take heart that there are strong men and women telling us the truth and fighting the corruption, there just seems to be not enough of them.
Having German tanks in the Ukraine is a great way to forever poison Russian German relations.