That Didn't Last Long

Is Trump really going to crash his credibility, and maybe his administration, before inauguration? The H-1B controversy isn’t looking good. I mean, when your very high profile right hand guy tells your political base to “f*ck yourselves”, that can’t be a good thing.

Musk tells opponents in visa debate ‘f**k yourself’

Swearing at the people who put you where you are, while dodging some very real issues, is never a good look. Calling them stupid can’t help, either—especially when so much of your success is due to government subsidies. That begins to look like rubbing it in.

The tech billionaire has warned he is ready “to go to war” over work permits for skilled foreign employees

Tesla and SpaceX CEO Elon Musk has lashed out at opponents of the H-1B visa program that allows US firms to hire qualified tech workers from abroad. The billionaire promised to give the critics, many of whom voted for US President-elect Donald Trump, a fight they “cannot possibly comprehend.”

The heated online debate on the issue started earlier this week after Musk urged an increase in the number of foreign workers recruited through H-1B visas so the US can “keep winning.” His call was supported by another entrepreneur, Vivek Ramaswamy. Both billionaires have been tapped by Trump to head DOGE, a special advisory body tasked with identifying government inefficiency.

However, many users rejected the idea, arguing that the program has been misused by US corporations to replace domestic talent with with lower-paid, entry-level guest workers from India and other nations.

Back in the day, when I was still working, I interviewed many H-1B visa holders. My impression was that the reports I’ve seen—that H-1Bers earn quite a bit less than Americans in the same job and usually have no special qualifications—are broadly correct. Further, my recollection is that H-1B people have limitations on job switching, so they’re kind of like modern day indentured workers.

FYI, here’s a small excerpt from Wikipedia that frames the issues pretty well:

The H-1B is a visa in the United States under the Immigration and Nationality Act, section 101(a)(15)(H), that allows United States employers to employ foreign workers in specialty occupations. It is the largest visa category in the United States in terms of guest worker numbers.

A "specialty occupation," as defined by the Act, requires the application of specialized knowledge and a bachelor's degree or the equivalent of work experience. …

Here are some of the criticisms of the program, also from Wikipedia:

Critics of the H-1B visa program say it is a government labor subsidy for corporations. …

Professor Matloff describes four types of labor savings for corporations and employers.[189]

• Type I labor savings is where employers pay H-1Bs less than similarly qualified American workers.

• Type II labor savings are where employers hire younger H-1Bs in lieu of older and more expensive American workers.

• Type III labor savings are where employers force H-1B workers to work longer hours.

• Type IV labor savings are when the oversaturation of H-1B workers suppresses wages in the labor market.

American technology companies are claimed to benefit most from Type II labor savings, where these firms hire a 25-year-old H-1B worker instead of a 50-year-old American programmer.

Academic researchers have found no labor shortage in STEM, undercutting the primary reason for the H-1B visa's existence.

… the U.S. has been employing only 30% to 50% of its newly degreed able and willing STEM workers to work in STEM fields.

Rutgers University Public Policy Professor Hal Salzman points to simultaneous industry layoffs, when industry claims labor shortage.

The Economic Policy Institute found that sixty percent of certified H-1B positions were below the local median wage. In Washington D.C, companies hiring a level 1 entry-level H-1B software developer received a discount of 36%, or $41,746. For level II workers, companies received a discount of 18%, or $20,863.

There’s actually lots more at the link, mostly from seemingly highly qualified academic researchers. I think you get the picture, and “f*ck yourself” doesn’t seem like a remotely adequate response to these criticisms.

Trump’s response doesn’t really help matters:

Trump, who had previously criticized H-1B visas and implemented measures during his first term to restrict their use in an effort to protect American jobs, clarified to the New York Post on Saturday that he now supports Musk’s stance.

“I have many H-1B visas on my properties. I have been a believer in H-1B. I have used it many times. It is a great program,” the president-elect insisted.

For starters, this flip flop will fuel the meme that the guy telling Americans to “f*ck themselves” is the actual president—kinda like the Zhou regime, except this time we know who’s in charge for sure. But just as bad is that, if Trump is telling the truth about using large numbers of H-1Bers on his properties, then Trump has probably been abusing the program. Does he really expect us to believe that he can’t find Americans to work at hotels and golf resorts? That he has many “specialty occupation” openings on his properties?

AMERICANS MUST HAVE AN EXTREME SHORTAGE OF GOLF INSTRUCTORS pic.twitter.com/37VTOr9POj

— The_Real_Fly (@The_Real_Fly)December 27, 2024

Zerohedge chronicles the predictability of it all:

MSM Pounces As 'MAGA Vs Technocrats' H1-Bomb Explodes Ahead Of Trump Inauguration

How about cheap coders working long hours, who can’t complain or they’ll be shipped back to wherever they came from?

So far, Jeff Bezos and Mark Zuckerberg have been quiet on the subject - perhaps this chart explains why...

Expect stories like this one to take on a new life:

Southern California Edison IT workers ‘beyond furious’ over H-1B replacements

Information technology workers at Southern California Edison (SCE) are being laid off and replaced by workers from India. Some employees are training their H-1B visa holding replacements, and many have already lost their jobs.

Or this one, in which Trump did personally pushed back against the abuses:

In Trump ‘45, the President had a showdown with the Tennessee Valley Authority over 200 American jobs that TVA had switched to H1Bs.
X ^ | Dec 28, 2024 | Theo Wold

In Trump ‘45, the President had a showdown with the Tennessee Valley Authority over 200 American jobs that TVA had switched to H1Bs..

In the run-up to Christmas, TVA fired these 200 Americans - and had them train their foreign replacements on the way out.

They did this despite the fact that TVA is (1) a government agency; (2) founded to improve the material station of poor Americans, and (3) manages critical energy infrastructure for a large swath of the country.

They'd have you believe that H-1B is a meritocracy.
X ^ | Dec 28, 2024 | Techno Fog

They'd have you believe that H-1B is a meritocracy.

That's a lie.

A VP for Cognizant, who supplies thousands of H-1B workers for Silicon Valley, admitted under oath that visa workers are not more "skilled" than US workers.

...

Companies are incentivized by H1B visas to hire cheap foreigners

Apparently some of this is starting to sink in—even to Musk—because within the past couple of hours:

Elon Musk changes his tune on H1-B visas as he tries to cool raging MAGA civil war over skilled immigration
NY Post ^ | Dec. 29, 2024, 11:29 a.m. ET | Ryan King

Elon Musk admitted that the H1-B visas are “broken” and floated a potential fix as he sought to cool a raging civil war within the MAGA base over the immigration program for highly skilled foreign workers.

Just a day after vowing to “go to war on this issue” and telling detractors to “F— yourself,” Musk, the world’s richest man, acknowledged some of the criticisms of the program getting abused and argued that the US should make it more costly to hire foreigners.

…

But a lot of damage has been done.

But then there’s this, too …

Affirming the US brand as a Global Apex Predator may be accurate, but one has to wonder whether it’s the smartest approach:

Donald Trump tells EU to buy more US oil and gas or face tariffs

After all, we’re the ones who have thrown the EU economy in the dumpster by blowing up the Nordstream Pipeline and enforcing the Russia sanctions, or trying to. Now we’re rubbing the Euros’ noses in it by forcing them to buy our high priced sea-borne energy instead of affordable Russian pipeline energy? Please don’t get me wrong, I know the Euros brought most of this on themselves, but it’s still not a good look for the US and it doesn’t earn good will or win respect. I suspect the pressure will be on a lot of the smaller eastern and central European countries to mend fences with Russia—as we’re already beginning to see.