Talking About China

Today and tomorrow I have personal business to take care of, but I’ve done a transcript/summary of what I found to be a fascinating geopolitical discussion. I’ll paste in my summary first—and it is just a summary. If you look at the summary first you’ll be able to decide if you want to watch/listen to the whole thing.

The Fall Of America?

The Duran | Cyrus Janssen & Alex Reporterfy Media

Alex Reporterfy Media (ARM)

Alex Christoforou (AC)

Alex Mercouris (AM)

Cyrus Janssen (CJ)

First five minutes are various video clips of US persons emphasizing the need for war with China--or similar extreme points of view.

5:00 start of discussion

CJ: 5:26 The big story in the US currently is Macron's trip to China. The US is very much a bully on the international scene--no other country is supposed to act in its own interests, they're supposed to only act with the intent of pleasing the American Empire. The US is reluctant to recognize the new multi-polar geopolitical reality.

AM: 7:30 Americans are increasingly talking themselves into a completely unnecessary war, showing no understanding of the real interests between the US and China. The reaction to Macron--not a true world player--has been an hysterical outburst. The conflict with China is not about Taiwan--from both sides Taiwan is officially part of China. The real conflict is a result of China's rise in the world, which has been fueled by economic development. It's manufacturing capacity is greater than the US and Europe combined, and that has the US spooked.

ARM: Sets it up for AC by citing Lloyd Austin's testimony re US and NATO military "investment in Ukraine since 2014".

AC: 12:00 The US has dug itself into a hole. It's bogged down in Ukraine. None of this had to happen, but this happens when you allow Neocons to run things. A negotiated arrangement was always possible, but the Neocons pushed Russia into a war--against Russia's will and after 8 years of Russia drawing red lines. Now the proxy war on Russia has morphed into what increasingly looks like an inevitable conflict with China. They'll say it's over Taiwan or some sort of Chinese aggression, but it's really about the American hegemon deciding that it won't step down quietly. The American Empire will go to war with the rising powers--China with Russia. Trump wanted a type of divorce from China and a US that would compete without the relationship becoming one of military adversaries. As matters stand now, America has set things up so that it has no other option than to go after both Russia and China in a military sense. If they don't, they'll lose their status as The Unipolar Power. The Neocons have got the US and Europe bogged down in Ukraine and now they're looking to do the same thing with China.

CJ: 15:00 Is there a way out of this? I don't think so. Here in the US there's a high level of anti-China propaganda being put out by the One-Party military industrial complex that ultimately runs the government. China is being used as the boogeyman to raise spending. Anyone familiar with China and its history knows that it's not a threat to America--not in the military sense in which it's being portrayed. This is fueled by the fact that so few Americans have any clue of what's going on in the world and have a view of China created by propaganda. The reality is that China and the US are heavily dependent on one another economically--war with the US is not at all in China's interest.

AM: 19:00 Why would China want to attack the US? China's interest is in economic dominance, which it has. China knows the US is a far greater nuclear power than China. The Chinese leadership is very rational, they know where their interests lie. It makes no sense at all for China to seek confrontation with the US. The Chinese military is strictly controlled by the Chinese government, in contrast to the situation in the US where the military industrial complex is "profoundly aggressive."

AC: 23:00 Cites Bolton's WSJ article, calling for a "global NATO" so that, once we've dismembered Russia, we'll be able to go after China. Neocon doctrine is that they can't allow a multi-polar world, no challenge to the uni-polar hegemon can be allowed. The only way forward is through military conflict/coercion.

AFM: Goes into a summary of the leaks, focuses on one statement that a negotiated settlement in Ukraine is unlikely, even if Ukraine losses are "unsustainable."

CJ: 29:00 Cites the Marco Rubio comments re China - Brazil giving the entire game away. Brazil acting in its own interest will affect the dollar to the extent that the US sanctions will end up being meaningless--that's the concern. The American Empire's dollar leverage over the entire world is at risk. There is a change coming in the US, in which more people are coming to realize that--even while US cities have become social disaster zones--more people are questioning spending on war. We need to focus on fixing America.

Discussion of sanctions failure, agreement that if the Russian money had really been located we'd know about it. Russia has defeated the sanctions and prevented their foreign exchange from being seized (in major part). Russia's FX reserves going into the war were $630 billion, now is $600 billion.

AM: 39:00 Stresses how dangerous Rubio's "zero sum" thinking is--the idea that any other country getting ahead, becoming more prosperous, and bettering itself (Brazil, China, etc.) somehow harms or threatens the US. 41:10 Cites earlier interview and views of the former Indian Ambassador to Russia: Multi-polarity will happen and there's nothing the US can do to prevent it--short of a nuclear holocaust. Other major nations, including India, thought the change would be negotiated. Instead, the US, by its policies, has transformed this inevitable process into a contested process. That is the root of global problems--the US believes it must remain the uni-polar hegemon, frozen in time, forever. This is pushing the world headlong into confrontation. 43:30 The conflict in Ukraine is also about China. Early on this became clear, in a National Interest article (8/2021 Wess Mitchell): We must defeat Russia in Ukraine, then impose our will on Russia to redirect Russia against China:

A Strategy for Avoiding Two-Front War

AC: 47:00 The US is bogged down in Ukraine. The only way to get out of this would be if the US had "very skilled diplomats--which they don't"--or continue on the path to conflict with Russia and China. Everywhere else in the world the US is losing, so the only option is to go for the main opponents: Middle East is slipping away, Saudi Arabia, Latin America, Africa. The only path back to a uni-polar world is by defeating Russia and China, because those two countries are leading the rest.

Discussion of revelations of NATO "boots on the ground" in Ukraine.

CJ: 50:00 America's biggest problem is the lack of sensible diplomacy--it's always "our way or the hiway". This lack is what is turning the rest of the world to cooperate with Russia and China, because they get respect from them.

CJ: 1:06:00 Americans tend to live in a bubble in which they assume that corruption in America isn't a problem, whereas there is actually a huge amount of "shady" dealing that goes on. Rampant corruption doesn't fit the narrative. 1:08:20 Our concern with "stopping" China makes the US look weak. Rather than focusing on growing ourselves. China has surpassed the US in trade with Africa not by freezing the US out but by finding ways to compete.

AM: 1:10:00 The US doesn't do diplomacy--it lectures, it threatens, it bullies. This puts people's backs up around the world. Now with the US dollar leverage declining this is working against the US. It's especially dismaying that there are so few voices of restraint in the US--everyone seems to be trying to outdo one another in voicing anti-China rhetoric. Moderation is scared out of the public square. Nobody suggests alternatives to war. It's the same in Britain.

One quick observation. In the context sketched out above, it’s interesting that Speaker Kev is talking a tough line on the debt ceiling—a move that, if followed out, undercuts the Neocons:

McCarthy Warns Biden Could 'Bumble' Into First Default In US History

"Since the president continues to hide, House Republicans will take action. So here’s our plan: In the coming weeks the House will vote on a bill to lift the debt ceiling into the next year, save taxpayers trillions of dollars, make us less dependent upon China, curb our high inflation — all without touching Social Security and Medicare," said McCarthy during a speech at the New York Stock Exchange.

"Let me be clear. A no-strings-attached debt limit increase will not pass,” McCarthy said, adding of the forthcoming GOP plan: “It limits, it saves and it grows," said McCarthy, who added that "the longer President Biden waits to be sensible to find an agreement, the more likely it becomes that this administration will bumble into the first default in our nation’s history," said McCarthy.