Sunday War Roundup: Lebanon, Ukraine

Jan 07, 2024

We’ll start with Lebanon/Hezbollah, although the Palestine war is actually already regional. Megatron_ron is of the view that both Israel and Hezbollah want war. I tend to agree. Israel, in my view, is backed into a corner from at least two standpoints. On the Lebanese front, Israel has been forced to evacuate a broad swath of territory and probably at least 100k people from the border area with Lebanon. It’s hard to see any regime accepting such a situation. On the economic front, the Houthi blockade of shipping connected with Israel—a fluid concept—is having a major impact on the Israeli economy. Arguably, the only way for Israel to break out of this corner is through war—or a complete change of regime philosophy in Palestine. The first alternative is dubious as regards the likelihood of success, but is the reflexive Israeli choice. The second is off the table from the standpoint of Zionist ideology. So, war seems to be in the cards—no matter what the US may think.

Here’s Megatron_ron’s take:

Megatron @Megatron_ron
NEW:
WallaNews:
"Senior Israeli officers say it's time to change military focus from Gaza to Lebanon, shift to offensive operations"
The officers said that IDF operations should be shifted from defense to offense, that diplomacy will not work, and that Hezbollah must pay a painful price & feel the pressure.
They say Israel should prepare its forces for action on the Lebanon front, and advance operational plans for war against Hezbollah.
Important meetings were held this week, and some strike plans have already been approved.
Comment: Hezbollah yesterday at a meeting with the EU, Commissioner Borel refused a diplomatic solution with Israel.
Hezbollah wants war and is slowly entering the second phase that I wrote about. On the other hand, Israel also goes to war because there are no other solutions left.
Israel has so far tried to persuade Hezbollah to 'ceasefire'. That's why senior Western officials say all the time that Israel does not want a war with Hezbollah.
And the children in Gaza wanted to live, but Israel massacred them, so.
@Middle_East_Spectator
http://t.me/megatron_ron
6:52 AM · Jan 7, 2024

The key line there is that Israel will go to war because … it can’t think of anything else to do. Israel used to be the guy in the Middle East with the hammer—or at least had an Uncle with a hammer. None of that is as true as it used to be, but they’ve boxed themselves into a pretty tight corner by virtue of magic ideological thinking.

According to the WaPo, Uncle is trying to wriggle out of his own corner. After all, even for the Empire there’s a limit to the number of wars it can juggle and keep in the air at one time. At a guess, I’d say that the Empire’s thought process, as far as it goes, is that the Red Sea blockade is the really pressing concern for the US, so for God’s sake don’t start a war with Hezbollah. The problem is that Israel knows that time is on Hezbollah’s side—and on the side of every player behind Hezbollah. Dealing with one problem at a time is all fine and good in theory, but events are pressing:

Iran Observer @IranObserver0
BREAKING
Israel can't win against Hezbollah warns the White House.
According to the Washington Post, the White House has warned Israel that it will not be able to defeat Hezbollah.
Biden sent Secretary of State Blinken to the Middle East to put pressure on Israel and avoid a confrontation with Hezbollah.
6:00 AM · Jan 7, 2024

Again, Megatron_ron’s case is plausible. Both Israel and Hezbollah want war. Time is on Hezbollah’s side, so it’s patiently preparing--possibly to maneuver Israel into a desperate gamble. Like, going on the offensive. Meanwhile, the hapless Blinken flies from one country to another, but nothing seems to get better. There is no sign of world opinion shifting in favor of genocide—far from it. And no one is really sure exactly what Hezbollah and the Houthis have up their sleeves in their mountain fastnesses.

Moving on …

Two interesting items regarding Ukraine. The first is the claim that Russia has been using North Korean battlefield ballistic missiles. Larry Johnson’s take seems to me to be the most plausible. Russia is probably allowing NK, as well as Iran, to combat test some of their weaponry against NATO defenses—a highly effective way to refine their products. Apparently the NK missiles got through.

The next item concerns supply lines. NATO is building what seems like a more or less dedicated military road that would serve to expedite supplies to Ukraine, from Romania’s Black Sea coast to the SW corner of Ukraine in the Chernivtsi Oblast:

The reason for this move is that Russia, by ending the Ukraine “grain deal”, has effectively put a stop to NATO arms shipments to Odessa.

Victor vicktop55 @vicktop55
Western media are burying Ukraine, while NATO is building logistics to supply weapons to its Ukrainian army.
Military expert Alexander Zimovsky:
NATO is building a strategic military highway road Bucuresti-Ploesti-Focsani-Siret-border crossing Porubnoye (Chernivtsi region).
The Pentagon and Brussels/NATO have concluded that the risk of further military supplies directly through Ukrainian ports outweighs the significance of such supplies.
The new military-strategic roadmap will allow the transfer of weapons and equipment to Ukraine without using [Ukraine’s] Black Sea ports.
According to the plan of NATO strategists, this will be the shortest and fastest part of logistics - military cargo is transshipped in Romanian Danube ports (such as Galati), inaccessible to attacks by the Russian Armed Forces.
And then convoys with weapons, ammunition and other military cargo go uninterruptedly to Ukraine, for distribution in rear military logistics hubs for shipment to the Eastern Front.
https://t.me/vicktop55/20019

6:21 AM · Jan 7, 2024

There are a number of possible problems with this scheme. First, of course, for this to work, you need to have stuff to ship in the first place. That’s increasingly in doubt—NATO countries in Europe have little left and support for Ukraine in the US is dropping. Second, we’re heading into the depths of winter with plenty of work left before the road is completed. Third, and most seriously, getting military stuff to Romania via the Black Sea isn’t a given. Turkey controls the choke point to the Black Sea, the Bosphorus. Last week the UK attempted to send mine clearing vessels to Romania. Turkey nixed that, flatly refusing to allow passage through the Bosphorus. It’s certainly possible that Erdogan might put a stop to arms shipments to Romania.