Sunday Roundup: 9/1/24

We’ll range somewhat widely here today. We’ll start with,

More Sanctions Backfire. Neocon Strategery with the usual results—why win when you can lose again?

steve hsu @hsu_steve

Dumb Ukraine proxy war continues to backfire... US farmers probably didn't imagine their China grain sales would be replaced by Russian sources.

Well, maybe US farmers do have that much imagination, but they don’t actually make policy.

"Russia and China are developing a transnational grains corridor, connecting Russia's enormous agricultural production to export markets in China, South Asia, and the Middle East.

When complete, Russian production and shipments on this network will exceed 8 million tons per year. China is the world's largest importer of wheat and grains, and in 2023 imported over 6 million tons of wheat from the United States, Canada, Australia, and France."

The Russia-China grains corridor will completely displace the US,...

10:14 AM · Aug 31, 2024

Also on sanctions backfire—which even the Fed has officially noted. De-dollarization is an actual thing:

Glenn Diesen @Glenn_Diesen

De-dollarisation: China’s international use of renminbi surges - "In July, 53 per cent of China’s inbound and outbound transactions used the Chinese currency" - “The sanction situation created a huge stimulus for China to develop its [financial] system” https://ft.com/content/ae08b6ed-d323-4a95-a687-0172a98857f4…

Last edited4:39 AM · Aug 30, 2024

Another way of looking at it. It’s not the whole world, but these are two very big economies:

We switch to German elections, with Tom Luongo. Please don’t ask for an explanation of German politics, but at least it’s clear that the natives in former East Germany are definitely restless:

Tom Luongo (Head Sneetch) @TFL1728

It's a mixed result. Saxony has to have the Greens fall below the 5% threshold or they will be shoe-horned into the coalition to retain their veto power in the Bundesrat over Saxony's 4 votes there... preserving their majority representation in the Upper House. 38/69. The writing is on the wall, the wall took a couple of hits, but, so far, it is still standing.

Quote

End Wokeness @EndWokeness

BREAKING: AfD becomes largest party in Thuringia, 2nd largest in Saxony.

A massive defeat against globalism

Tom Luongo (Head Sneetch)

winning in Thuringia and Saxony is great. But the early results still point to them being frozen out of state govt. However if the Greens fail to qualify by getting <5% that’s the real win

Follow up on the Helmer narrative of Putin as patsy for the West—a smart post:

Chamberlain's Ghost @RSA_Observer

There's this narrative at the moment that Russia - or indeed Putin - has no red lines. Indeed, I read that one of Zelensky's reasons for the Kursk invasion is to prove that there are no such red lines and that Ukraine should be relieved of all Western constraints in carrying out strikes against Russia.

It's a very dangerous and foolish line of thinking. The evidence that Russia has red lines and will act on them is right before your eyes. It's called the Russo-Ukraine war.

Putin for years signaled to the West that interference in Ukraine was a matter of significant concern to Russia. William Burns, now the head of the CIA, referred to NATO enlargement in Ukraine as being 'the brightest of red lines'. Nobody paid attention because nobody believed Russia would do anything about it. In fact, outside of the US administration, nobody in Europe, including Zelensky himself, believed that Russia would do anything. They simply didn't believe that there was a red line or that it had been crossed. Not even on the very eve of the invasion. Nor, I remind you, did the Russians say they were going to invade. They simply did it when they decided to do it. That was when everyone discovered that, indeed, a red line had been crossed.

It's true that the Russians have raised concerns and 'red lines' about various things in this war and then done nothing out of the usual. But that's also how Putin behaved for many years after his speech at the Munich Security Conference in February 2007, when everyone sniggered at the concerns he raised. What you're seeing now is consistent with this pattern of Russian behavior - they do nothing until they decide to do something and it's only then that everyone finds out the red line has indeed finally been crossed. It's really very Russian. Be forewarned.

1:23 AM · Aug 30, 2024

In Palestine, Netanyahu continues to kill off Hamas’ Israeli prisoners. This looks very much like a deliberate policy—a continuation of the Hannibal Directive—and Israelis are getting upset. Hey, it’s what you get when you vote for a collection of sociopaths. Who’s to blame?

Megatron @Megatron_ron

NEW:

 Mass panic today among the Israeli public after 6 more hostages were found dead in Gaza as a result of Israel's brutal bombings

Former Defense Minister Benny Gantz calls on the people to overthrow the government:

"Prisoners are dying, the people of the north are being exiled, our society is collapsing, and the public must take to the streets. It is time to replace the government of absolute failure.

Killing of prisoners leads us to another difficult and painful morning, and Netanyahu is playing for time for political considerations.

The Cabinet must meet immediately and change the decision to remain in the "Philadelphi Corridor""

Israeli official involved in ceasefire negotiations to The Times of Israel:

"The army's recovery of the bodies of the six prisoners from Gaza is the latest evidence that military pressure without a parallel diplomatic initiative condemns prisoners to death."

Israeli Prisoners and Missing Persons Families Forum:

"The six prisoners whose bodies were recovered from the Gaza Strip would have remained alive if Benjamin Netanyahu's government had reached an agreement with Hamas to return them."

Israeli opposition leader Yair Lapid calls on labor unions, employers and local authorities in Israel to shut down the economy.

Lapid calls on Knesset Speaker to hold urgent Knesset plenum meeting to discuss reaching agreement on Gaza

Lapid: "There are living prisoners in Gaza and it is still possible to reach an agreement, but Netanyahu is holding back for political reasons"

Haaretz Newspaper on a senior Israeli government official: "Netanyahu knew what he was doing and acted brutally, with blood on his hands"

Senior officials from the economic sectors in Israel meet tonight to pressure the main labor union "Histadrut" to declare a general strike

Israeli President Isaac Herzog to the families of the occupation prisoners: "I am sorry that we did not return the prisoners from Gaza and we must reach an agreement"

6:05 AM · Sep 1, 2024

Alastair Crooke has a provocative article out. The basic idea is that back in 2006 Israel tried to lure the US into their Lebanon debacle, claiming they could duplicate the NATO attack in Kosovo in half the time—as a preview for the big US - Israel strike on Iran. We all know how that one ended, but Crook maintains that Netanyahu is trying the same ploy, claiming some huge success in the “preemptive” strike against Hezbollah. However …

Crooke does admit that in 2006 Dick Cheney—of all people!—put the kibosh on US participation. My read currently is that, so far, the US is holding firm on “defending” Israel, but not participating in offensive actions (beyond intel sharing, which is admittedly more than half the game).

Anyway, here’s the conclusion—but the whole article deserves careful consideration:

“We told Israel, ‘Look, if you guys have to go, we’re behind you all the way’”

It is understood by many in Washington that the Revisionist Zionists (who represent maybe about 2 million Israelis) intend cynically to impose their will on the ‘Anglo-Saxons’, by plunging the U.S. into a wide regional war, should the White House try to undercut their neo-Nakba project of Palestinian forcible expulsion.

Benjamin Netanyahu has provoked Iran once (with the assassination in the Damascus Consulate of a top IRGC general); twice with killing of Haniyeh in Tehran; and a possible third would be were Israel to launch a so-called ‘pre-emptive’ strike against Iran, believing that the U.S. would be trapped and politically unable to stand aloof as Iran retaliated against Israel.

However, should the U.S. veto a strike on Iran before the U.S. elections (and Iran not retaliate for the death of Haniyeh before then), the Naqba ‘project’ can be moved forward via extending the existing Gaza military offensive to the West Bank, or through a grave provocation on the Haram al-Sharif/The Temple Mount (such as a fire at the al-Aqsa Mosque).

The Revisionist Zionists have been clear over recent years that some crisis or the confusion of war would be required to implement their neo-Naqba project fully.

America particularly is trapped by its ‘ironclad’, unqualified military support for Israel – which offers Netanyahu ample room for manoeuvre.

Manoeuvre, that is, towards the conflict that is Netanyahu’s only escape hatch ‘upwards’ as the ‘walls of attrition’ close-in on Israel. Iran and Hizbullah seem to have chosen too, for now, to preserve their escalatory dominance through a return to imposed calibrated attrition on Israel.

The U.S. will not be able to keep such a huge deployment of naval vessels in the region for long; but equally, Netanyahu will not be able to politically prevaricate at home for long, either.

My qualification here is twofold. First, America is probably no longer the country that Netanyahu thought he knew years ago and was convinced could be “easily manipulated.” Second, Crooke needs to reconsider the idea that American support for any country is ever “ironclad”. OK, here’s a third, related, qualification. What happens in Ukraine—and it’s happening with increasing momentum—will play into anything the Anglo-Zionists attempt before the election in the Middle East.