Still Thinking About War On Iran

I spent parts of this morning comparing notes between Doug Macgregor with Judge Nap and Larry Johnson’s article today. Both are talking about what still looks like war on Iran. It’s true that Trump just imposed new sanctions on everyone in the world who does business with Iran—in other words, he restarted his trade war on China. While superficially that may have looked like choosing trade war over a kinetic war, it remains that Trump is nothing if not duplicitous. That move may have just been a fake before the real move. Still, we haven’t yet seen a massive transfer of refueling tanker aircraft to the Middle East, so there may yet be some breathing space. Nor have we seen any major transfer of US resources out of its Persian Gulf bases.

Perhaps influencing the pause, if that’s what we’re seeing, is the fact that the situation on the ground has different in important respects from what it was last June.

If there is a ‘this time’, this time won’t be a surprise to Iran. That has to be a major concern, given the way Iran bounced back from the ‘last time’ sneak attack.

The suppression of the CIA/Mossad fueled riots in fairly short order, with the arrest of ringleaders, may have also decimated the agent corps within Iran that was such an important part of the surprise last time. These agents were identified with the help of Starlink suppression technology provided by Russia/China. It will remain in place, ready for ‘this time’.

Having had at least a glimpse of Iran’s missile capabilities, the Anglo-Zionists have reason to hesitate.

Russia and China appear to be all-in in support of Iran. That may be short of actual combat involvement, but it is probably quite significant. Nor should the possibility of Russian pilots flying Iranian flagged but Russian made fighters be totally discounted.

Turkey is well aware of the Anglo-Zionist threat that it now faces. Reports are that Turkey provided Iran with intelligence regarding the attempted insurrection, regarding foreign infiltration into Iran. Turkey has also stationed radar in northern Syria and could provide advanced warning to Iran of an impending attack.

In his talk with the Judge, Mac confirmed that the US has been shipping large amounts of munitions to the Middle East. That’s an obvious prerequisite for war, but it also represents a restocking from disastrously low levels. Mac stressed that the real question is, How long can an offensive be maintained. One lesson learned from ‘last time’ is that Iran appears to have far greater endurance than the Anglo-Zionists have, and has yet to use its most advanced missiles.

Of special concern for military planners is the fact that Iran has promised that US bases will be on the target list ‘this time,’ and Mac is of the view that our bases are no better protected than they were ‘last time.’ Iran proved ‘last time’ that it was able to blow through base defenses and take out a key comms facility. Note too that those bases are vulnerable to shorter range Iranian missiles, which are available in large numbers and are far easier to conceal and move about than the larger ballistic missiles used to reach Israel. Any concerted Iranian attack could prove devastating.

LJ, for his part,

US Cargo Planes Have Flooded the Persian Gulf Since the First of December

In December 2025 and January 2026 (through early/mid-January), open-source intelligence (OSINT) and flight-tracking data indicate a significant surge in US military transport aircraft (primarily heavy lifters like C-17 Globemaster III and C-5M Galaxy) flying to or toward US bases in the Persian Gulf, such as Al Udeid Air Base in Qatar, with reports consistently describing “dozens” of such movements.

Follow the link for detailed rundown of the various bases—their purposes, etc.

One important aspect of what looks like a major buildup is that, based on what we saw ‘last time’, a large proportion of whatever munitions are put in place will need to be of a purely defensive nature. Has that already been done during the past six months, and this wave of flights is building up offensive capabilities? We don’t know.

LJ presents a scenario for what he presumes will be a major new attack on Iran. Knowing that Iran will likely pull few if any punches, LJ suggests that the US is preparing to defend its bases.

The surge of US military cargo planes over the last 40 days suggests that the US may opt for an air campaign and is deploying air defense systems to all of the bases listed above in preparation for such an attack. I believe that US planners believe they can knock out Iranian missile sites and, with a bevy of Patriot and THAAD air defense systems, defeat any Iranian retaliation.

OTOH, the stationing of a bevy of defensive missiles would appear to be an acknowledgement by US military planners that they cannot knock out the Iranian missile sites. And here’s another reason for concern:

All of the information I’ve present above comes from open source intelligence (OSINT). If I can read it so can the Iranians, the Russians and the Chinese. Would you be shocked to learn that the Russians and the Chinese have satellite systems that are collecting intelligence on these bases as well and passing that information to Iran? Iran will know the location of the US air defense systems.

Based on the Iranian response to the surprise attack on June 13, I expect Iran will initially flood the US bases with drones and older missiles that will drain the US anti-missile defense systems… The US does not have an unlimited supply of Patriot missiles. If Iran has swallowed its pride and has accepted a robust supply of Russian and Chinese air defense units, then it has a better chance of surviving a US attack intended to neutralize Iran’s ability to launch ballistic missiles, which are stored in a number of underground bunkers scattered around Iran.

I still think that the first move by the US will be a cyber attack on Iran’s military command and control system. However, Iran has a robust cyber capability as well and would likely respond in kind to any such attack. Trump will receive a full briefing from Pete Hegseth’s War Department today (Tuesday) and a decision on the US courses of action is likely to follow.

Here are a few additional considerations.

There is no reason to believe that any of the US anti-missile defense systems—SM-6, Patriot, THAAD—will perform any better this time around than last time. Again, the close proximity of so many US bases to Iran simply increases their vulnerability, making the flooding of the airspace with drones far more feasible.

Mac, like LJ, assumes extensive Russian and Chinese involvement in Iran’s preparations. In fact, Mac suggests that the provision of anti-Starlink technology to Iran may be only “the tip of an iceberg” when it comes to the assistance that Iran has received.

This looks like a high risk venture.