Spike In Renewed Iran War Rumors

There has been a flurry of rumors—entirely plausible on their face—to the effect that Miriam Adelson and other leading Jewish Nationalists are frantically lobbying Trump to renew his undeclared war on Iran. Trump himself has been on a toot with goofy tweets intended to project an image of strength, but which in context project desperation. This, as the War Powers Resolution deadline of May 2 approaches and Congress holds hearings on the subject. This also comes after a flurry of rumors that Trump is exploring some form of TACO—such as proclaiming the effectiveness of an ineffective blockade:

The American Conservative @amconmag

President Trump says the Hormuz blockade “is genius”:

“The blockade has been 100% foolproof. It shows how good our Navy is. No one is going to play games.. Now, they have to cry uncle. That’s all they have to do. Just say ‘We give up.’”

Is all this more bluffing to try to extract some concession from Iran, some fig leaf to cover the TACO and sell it to Americans as a victory? Whatever it is—bluff or real threat—Iran isn’t playing that game. The bottom line for me is that, one way or another, the war on Iran that threatens global economic catastrophe as well as a possible hot global war targeting China is being prolonged. It’s hard to exaggerate the negatives of continuing this war.

Here’s what’s up this morning.

Say what you want about Axios, but it has been used by Trump to feed leaks to the media—bluff, or signaling a real threat:

Drop Site @DropSiteNews

AXIOS: President Trump to receive new Iran strike options briefing Thursday

CENTCOM chief Brad Cooper is set to present plans ranging from a “short and powerful” wave of strikes on Iranian infrastructure to seizing parts of the Strait of Hormuz to reopen shipping, according to the report.

Other options include special forces targeting Iran’s enriched uranium stockpile.

Trump told Axios he views the naval blockade as “more effective than the bombing,” but could escalate if Iran refuses to concede.

United States Air Force general, who serves as the Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, Dan Caine is also expected at the briefing.

Oil prices have surged to new war-time highs

Now, this morning, Larry Johnson appeared on Judge Nap’s show. LJ presented all the very strong arguments against a renewal of the bombing campaign. The leading—and related—reasons included two that we highlighted yesterday:

• Iran controls escalation because of its enormous stock of high precision missiles, which have wreaked devastation on US bases;

• The US is running short of precision munitions, most of which rely on Chinese provided rare earths and—in any event—take months to produce for each unit.

In other words, Iran can happily fire away while the US has to husband its resources—which have, in any case, not deterred Iran in the least. LJ also explains the likely disasters awaiting any entry into Iranian territory—a lesson Trump should have learned from the Isfahan debacle. Still …

MenchOsint @MenchOsint

20h

An MC-130J Commando II and 2 x HC-130J Combat King II are arriving in US Bases in the region.

*same planes that were used for that failed raid near Isfahan.

Perhaps most tellingly, LJ reports that he has heard that the top officers who would be most involved in such a renewed bombing and/or boots on the ground campaign are opposed. Trump’s claims and threats that Iran is desperate for an end fall flat in the face of continued Iranian defiance and the implausibility of any suggestion on his own part that he’s reluctant to attack for supposed humanitarian reasons. Nevertheless, Doug Macgregor, who has consistently predicted escalation and hasn’t been wrong yet, is predicting stupid choices and escalation …

Iran, for its part, has been threatening massive retaliation—eclipsing previous responses—and strongly suggesting that it will target USN ships. That, of course, raises the question of whether Iran has, to this point, held back some of its anti-ship capabilities.

IRNA News Agency ☫ @IrnaEnglish

In response to CENTCOM, IRGC Aerospace Force commander said:

With long and far-reaching painful blows, we will respond to the enemy’s operations even if they are swift and short by the grace of God.

We saw the fate of your bases in the region; we will also see your warships.

Robert A. Pape @ProfessorPape

2h

Chilling: Iran supreme leader issues statement saying:

— only place Americans belong in Persian Gulf is ‘at the bottom of its waters

— Iran will protect nuclear capability

—Iran will keep Hormuz

Iran is not surrendering— it’s preparing for escalation

Will Schryver sums the situation up:

Will Schryver @imetatronink

15h

Trump has painted himself into a “damned if you do and damned if you don’t” corner.

Declare victory and leave? Everyone knows the score.

Try to redeem the fail with new attacks? Run serious risk of losing even bigger, and still have to leave because you’ve got nothing left.

Part of the corner is economic—both internationally and at home, where Trump’s support is at disastrously low levels. We covered aspects of the agricultural crisis that will explode on consumers later. But the gas price crisis is hitting home already:

Mario Nawfal @MarioNawfal·

16h

 BREAKING: Gas prices just spiked between $0.70 and $0.90 in a single day across Illinois, Michigan, Indiana, and Wisconsin, with some stations now hitting $5 per gallon.

-GasBuddy confirming the surge across multiple Midwest states

-Single-day jumps of nearly a dollar per gallon at the pump

-Some stations breaking $5 for the first time since the war began

-National average already at a war-era high of $4.18 before this spike

-Comes as Trump met with energy executives yesterday to discuss extending the blockade for months

The pain everyone has been warning about for weeks is now landing at the pump in real time, and it’s hitting the Midwest first because that’s where refining capacity and supply lines are tightest.

The economic clock Trump has been managing just got significantly louder, and the political consequences of $5 gas across the Rust Belt six months out from the midterms don’t need to be explained.

Source: GasBuddy, WSJ

None of this makes sense in a rational world but, well, Trump’s narcissism. Or blackmail. Or something to explain the hold that Jewish Nationalist fantasies of world domination have over Trump. That factor makes Mac’s pessimism plausible:

Sean Padraig McCarthy @SeanMcCarthyCom

17h

The plan is greater Israel by any means necessary. That’s it. There is no other 12D chess going on here. The war is destroying the petrodollar, they don’t give a fuck. It’s not part of some deep strategy involving energy resources, it strengthens China immensely. They don’t care. They will burn everything to the ground to try to get greater Israel.

It was a common error in analysis to treat the Iraq war as “stupid” or “a mistake.” Paul Bremer dismissing the Iraqi army, obliterating the state through De-Ba’athification, creating the insurgency. It doesn’t make any sense as a strategy unless you understand that the war was for Israel.

The Iraqi state had to be pulverized so it could never again threaten Israel. Iraqi academics, engineers, specialists of all kinds had to be killed or chased out in terror. Then ditto in Libya, ditto in Syria. The only plan is to try to do that to Iran.

None of this was “a mistake.” None of it was “stupid.” The actual goals were just different from the justifications presented for public consumption.

The Israel lobby is immensely powerful but a war with Iran was always the one thing they couldn’t get. U.S. state planners since the Iranian revolution have understood what closure of the strait of Hormuz would mean. It is apocalyptic for the maintenance of the petrodollar that the U.S. empire depends on.

The lobby has been working our government for decades now. They’ve finally got a president blackmailed enough and a deep state zogged enough that the initial start of the war could go forward. Now they’re riding on the back of a tiger.

The cost of living crisis is coming home. They have to keep the war going over what will be increasing civil unrest. Eventually they’re going to push Trump into doubling down. The goal is to go nuclear. That’s what they think is the way out. Nuking Iran.

This is genocidal madness. It’s why everyone in Congress needs to be held accountable for not funding a single dollar for this illegal war. It’s why the anti war movement in this country needs to wake up and recognize that we are in a crisis moment. Our passivity will be taken by the ruling class as permission to do the unthinkable.

One final note. If what follows is true, it appears that China, having taken a pause to carefully consider responses to Trump’s blockade and Bessent’s sanctions, may have hit on a strategy—beyond what they’ve used in the past (rare earth embargoes, etc.):

The Hormuz Letter @HormuzLetter

BREAKING: A source close to Ghalibaf says in direct response to the US seizing Iranian oil shipments bound for China, the Chinese government has issued new regulations allowing confiscation of assets belonging to any foreign government or company that disrupts its supply chain.

China is also factoring in US military constraints from the Iran conflict as it assesses a potential strike on Taiwan.