I woke this morning with my head spinning regarding what’s going on in Syria. There are so many possible angles to take in to account. The easy explanation is the traditional Israeli policy of encouraging Jihadist Sunni Muslims to attack Shiite Muslims (Hezbollah). The desire is to maintain a state of continuing chaos in Syria. However, that doesn’t necessarily explain Turkey’s interest in supporting the HTS offensive—including with heavily Turkic elements. Erdogan’s claim is that he’s doing this to force Assad to talk about “the future of Syria”. It seems doubtful that Turkey truly wants chaos on its southern flank.
These uncertainties have led to some bigger picture speculation. For example, and alarmingly, former Brit diplomat Craig Murray is featured at MoA today:
A truly seismic change in the Middle East appears to be happening very fast. At its heart is a devil’s bargain – Turkey and the Gulf States accept the annihilation of the Palestinian nation and creation of a Greater Israel, in return for the annihilation of the Shia minorities of Syria and Lebanon and the imposition of Salafism across the Eastern Arab world.
This also spells the end for Lebanon and Syria’s Christian communities, as witness the tearing down of all Christmas decorations, the smashing of all alcohol and the forced imposition of the veil on women in Aleppo now.
Yesterday US Warthog air-to-ground jets attacked and severely depleted reinforcements which were, at the invitation of the Syrian government, en route to Syria from Iraq. Constant, daily Israeli airstrikes on Syria’s military infrastructure for months have been a major factor in the demoralisation and reduced capacity of the Syrian government’s Syrian Arab Army, which has simply evaporated in Aleppo and Hama.
It is very difficult to see the tide turning in Syria. The Russians now have either to massively reinforce their Syrian bases with ground troops or to evacuate them. Faced with the exigencies of Ukraine, they may do the latter, and it is reported that the Russian navy has already set sail from Tartus.
I don’t buy this. Some of the information is clearly wrong—the Russian navy hasn’t vacated their base at Tartus by any reports, and it remains highly unlikely. Other accounts, while not downplaying the gravity of the situation the Syrian regime is facing, also point out that the SAA’s withdrawal from Sunni cities north of Damascus has been orderly. Finally, it’s impossible to see how the rise of a Salafist caliphate across a Greater Syria could possibly be in Israel’s interest—not even that of a Greater Israel. Nor in Turkey’s interest.
Rather than focusing on a Greater Israel, which I regard as a monumentally difficult project, I woke up wondering whether Erdogan could be acting at the behest of the Anglo-Zionist empire to initiate the development of a Greater Turkey—a project at the heart of Erdogan’s geopolitics. The idea behind this would be to take control over Kurdish oil resources in northern Syria and northern Iraq, and join with the Azeri Turks in Azerbaijan. That would be facilitated through Armenia, which—along with Azerbaijan—is a hotbed of Anglo-Zionist-Israeli intel activity. From that point, the goal would be to unite Turkey - Azerbaijan with the Turkic areas of Central Asia (also a hotbed of Western intel activity, including attempted coups) that strech from the east shore of the Caspian Sea all the way to China—as well as with Iranian Azerbaijan, which actually has probably 50% more Azeris than independent Azerbaijan. The result would be to decisively sever Russia’s cherished North South Transport Corridor through Iran and cripple BRICS. This map will illustrate how this scheme would dovetail with NATO activity:
First note the position of Azerbaijan on the western shore of the Caspian Sea. Iranian Azerbaijan is directly south of that, and the loss of that prospect would be a crippling blow to Iran. The areas overlain by the word “AZERBAIJAN” are all Turkic in population, as is the southern half of Kazakhstand, directly north of that area.
Couple that with the rushed building of NATO bases in Scandinavia—to block Russia’s access to the Atlantic via the Baltic or Arctic, and to threaten the warm water port of Murmansk in Russia’s north—and the building of the largest military base in Europe in Romania—close to Ukraine, threatening Russian dominance of the Black Sea. The result is to lay geopolitical siege to Russia and to threaten Russia’s access to much of the world’s waterways.
One question to all this is whether Erdogan would double cross Putin yet again. I would say, In a heartbeat.
The larger question involves US and European military and industrial preparedness to credibly back up such an ambitious project. That appears doubtful. Much would also depend on whether Russia is able to conclude the war in Ukraine in the nearer term. Russia has to be pondering these questions. The possibilities—even just theoretical—certainly suggest the desirability for Russia of going all the way to the Polish and Romanian borders. It then would become a question of the willingness of Russia to actually continue—possibly in the Baltics or Finland, possibly by striking NATO bases in Romania and Poland (from which missiles launched in Ukraine are directed to targets in Russia).
See what you think. In the meantime, Russia and Iran are attempting to reason with Erdogan. What Erdogan may have in mind is the big question.
MenchOsint @MenchOsint
 Iranian FM Araghchi after Astana talks "The most important thing is to start political talks between the Syrian government and the legitimate opposition groups"
"We had a very good meeting of the Astana group between the foreign ministers of Iran, Russia and Türkiye. At the end of the meeting, Mr. Pederson, the special representative of the UN Secretary General joined.
The current issues in Syria, which are very serious, were discussed and all the participants agreed that the conflicts should end immediately, the territorial integrity and sovereignty of Syria should be respected and the United Nations should definitely be referred to.
The most important thing is to start political talks between the Syrian government and the legitimate opposition groups.
I.e., not jihadist groups.
These were the demands of the meeting and it was decided that we [Iran] should consult with the Syrian government in this regard. Russia was also supposed to consult with the Syrian government."
- Tasnim.
Meeting of Turkish, Russian & Iranian minister in Doha
6:44 AM · Dec 7, 2024
That sounds like Turkey is open to a resolution. We shall see.
-- GEROMAN -- time will tell -  -- @GeromanAT
Syria retreats from fourth major city - Daraa, - Reuters
The city was abandoned without a fight - on the condition that government forces could safely leave in the direction of Damascus, which is located one hundred kilometers from Daraa.
With the capture of this city on the border with Jordan, the militants' offensive against Assad's forces began from a new direction - the south. Incidentally, mass unrest began in Daraa province in 2011, which later escalated into a civil war.
The Syrian authorities have effectively confirmed their withdrawal from the area, saying that they have carried out a “redeployment” and established a “reliable defensive perimeter” in Daraa province and neighboring As-Suwayda.
Earlier, the Syrian army lost Aleppo and Hama in the north, and Deir ez-Zor in the east. Also, the Islamists are now advancing on the key city of Homs north of Damascus, but the Syrian army has not yet been driven out from there; forces from Assad's ally Hezbollah are moving in there.
An interesting chart that loser anti-Catholic liberals often forget. Most of those in the Nazi areas were themselves loser Weimar liberals in the 1920s. If your ideology is shallow then so are you - and you will turn to barbarism with enough Twitter hashtags.
"I will say this: IF the Russians had good reason to believe Turkey (and Iraq and Iran) would honor a 100-year treaty for Russia's eastern Mediterranean bases, the Russians would sell Assad and Syria down the river."
We are in the midst of World War Three. You do what you need to do in order to buy time until you can do what you really want to do.
I have long been of the opinion that Russia's Syrian bases represent strategic imperatives for Moscow.
I am now revisiting that assumption in the context of potential open war between Russia and the US.
I have not yet reached a conclusion, but I am thinking about it ...
I have not forgotten the “information” that saturated Western media outlets back in 2013 and 2014. There were multiple reports over a period of a few weeks that Assad was going to capitulate and flee Syria. It was bullshit. I was reading the intel at the time and the Defense Intelligence Agency, then under the direction of Michael Flynn, was telling a very different story.
Will Schryver @imetatronink
 To repeat what I wrote on December 1:
"I will say this: IF the Russians had good reason to believe Turkey (and Iraq and Iran) would honor a 100-year treaty for Russia's eastern Mediterranean bases, the Russians would sell Assad and Syria down the river."
We are in the midst of World War Three. You do what you need to do in order to buy time until you can do what you really want to do.
I have long been of the opinion that Russia's Syrian bases represent strategic imperatives for Moscow.
I am now revisiting that assumption in the context of potential open war between Russia and the US.
I have not yet reached a conclusion, but I am thinking about it ...
Larry Johnson noted:
I have not forgotten the “information” that saturated Western media outlets back in 2013 and 2014. There were multiple reports over a period of a few weeks that Assad was going to capitulate and flee Syria. It was bullshit. I was reading the intel at the time and the Defense Intelligence Agency, then under the direction of Michael Flynn, was telling a very different story.
https://sonar21.com/us-bows-to-putins-warning-and-some-cautions-about-syria/