This is pure speculation, based on very recent developments—which we pointed to just this morning. If Trump is setting the stage for a deal, it looks like he’s targeting Putin as a deal partner. Why do I raise this question? Why does this look like an emerging possibility, that Trump has been doing some behind the scene prep?
Consider Syria first. Initially, when Assad was removed, that op had all the earmarks of an Anglo-Zionist move with Turkey providing the cover story of a jihadi offensive. Israel was cock a hoop, moving to control water resources for leverage over Jordan and Lebanon and, especially, touting their new ability to use Syrian air space to stage unhindered strikes on Iran. But that’s not how things have developed. First of all, the Turkish controlled HST has gone out of its way to court good relations with both Russia and Iran—on a limited basis that protects a Turkish zone of influence. Turkey has also begun expanding its zone of influence (including in the direction of Lebanon) and has harshly demanded that Israel butt out of Syria.
And now. Multiple Israeli and Turkish reports have claimed that Trump is preparing to withdraw the US military from Syria. Trump’s move—if it happens—flips the entire decades long Neocon strategy in Syria totally on its head. Who will that please? Let’s see: Turkey, Iran, Russia, Iraq, most of the Arab world in general. Notice that I didn’t include Israel? And Trump has seemingly summoned Netanyahu to the WH to discuss peace in the Middle East. Meanwhile there’s a Trumpian fog of rhetoric surrounding everything.
Bottom Line: It’s hard to believe that Trump would be doing this without some sort of understanding with Russia.
Next, consider Trump’s regime change/mod offensive in Europe, headed by Elon Musk. The EU is reported to be in full panic mode, because Trump is ignoring the EU and instead dealing directly with national governments. Everyone understands that, for all its current problems, Germany remains the key to Western Europe. And that’s exactly where Musk has been concentrating his regime change/mod efforts to build up the AfD. Until yesterday the AfD had been a pariah in Germany establishment politics, but it has risen dramatically in the polls. Yesterday the CDU broke from the rest of the establishment and accepted AfD support on a key immigration measure. Are we seeing the beginnings of a new coalition taking shape? Would a CDU/AfD coalition bring a new opening to Russia, to restore energy supplies? Who would that please? Take a bow Mr. Putin!
Bottom line: It’s hard to believe that Trump is unaware of the dynamics at work in this regime change/mod offensive. That he is unaware of the ways in which Russia would benefit. Does this mean that some sort of arrangement is taking shape behind the fog of tough-on-Russia Trumpian rhetoric? Could be.
More briefly, Trump’s turn on Denmark—to strip it of Greenland—will certainly give pause to the entire Scandi region about where they stand between the US and Russia. Will that suggest to them that a return to neutrality is the wiser course? Could be. As of yesterday the Danes had started cooperating with Russia in the Baltic to patch up Nordstream for environmental reasons. And then there’s the regime change offensive against the British establishment, again fronted by Musk. Nigel Farage is topping UK polls and what’s his name Starmer is getting the back of Trump’s hand.
Bottom Line: All this has to be pleasing Putin—the pressure for the Scandis to reconsider their Great Northern War 2.0 and the regime change op against Russia’s “eternal enemy” (Medvedev’s words), the British Empire.
Taken as a whole, you have to wonder. I may be wrong, but it would be geopolitical malpractice not to wonder what’s going on.
The big question is, Where does China fit into this scheme? Will Trump look for a deal in Asia, too?
Check out the latest German polling
CDU 29%
AfD 23%
SPD 15%
Green 13%
It's going to hard for CDU to resist a coalition with AfD, especially after the vote yesterday. Looks like major tectonic shift.
https://x.com/RMXnews/status/1884553857700671554
Yes. The re-organization of the West is underway.
China cannot and does not want to take the place of the US worldwide. There is much being written by Chinese academics regarding morality and governance as the basis to move forward.
What Russia wants/needs is not hard to understand, so doing things in that direction makes total sense.
This all circles back to domestic: there needs to be a sense of safety and security in order for normal and republican politics to happen. Digital tech has blown the old model apart, so the issues around safety have to be addressed before anything else. One can think of the US as bringing the money to the table, but not imposing all the democracies talk from the past. Everyone seeks their own interests and makes a “deal.”
A big thing in the background in many countries is the role that spirituality/religion is playing. We don’t think about it much here, but it’s significant everywhere else, and is the basis of questions concerning morality and governance. The Chinese are more in-tuned to this than the West.