Something Fishy In The Red Sea

Once again, Merry Christmas. I’m sorry to report that Peace on Earth shows no signs of breaking out for the time being.

There’s still a lot of speculation going on about the famous victory at sea that the US Navy scored against its own Super Hornets—one splashed and another almost hit. The USN insists it wasn’t the Houthis who did this—’No, no!’ they say, ‘that was just our own incompetence.’ Not everyone is persuaded.

Just about the first thing I noticed this morning was this:

Obviously the USS Harry got outta Dodge in a very big hurry. It’s now as far away from the Houthis as you can get while still remaining in the Red Sea. Is the USN afraid of something?

From that I moved on to Will Schryver, who linked to Lee Slusher.

@LeeBTConsulting

CEO, BT Consulting LLC ~25 yrs intelligence/geopolitical risk. Polyglot. Experience in multiple combat zones/NATO/Ukraine/Taiwan. Practitioner, not a theorist.

I’ve quoted Slusher in the recent past. Schryver vouches for Slusher’s knowledgeability on these matters, so read this closely. I’ve added some links. The 25 words or less version is that Slusher is raising the possibility that Russia has shared some advanced EW capabilities (or is operating them on behalf of others) with the Houthis. The Russians have broadly hinted that that would be fair play or fair turnarund, given what the US shares/operates on behalf of Ukraine.

Lee Slusher @LeeBTConsulting

This is nothing but curious questioning. I don’t claim to know what happened with the purported friendly fire incidents involving the USS Gettysburg in the Red Sea. I simply wish to share some thoughts.

In 2014, an unarmed Russian Su-24 buzzed the USS Donald Cook in the Black Sea. A Russian media outlet claimed an electronic warfare system aboard the aircraft disabled the ship’s Aegis Combat System. The US denies the Aegis was impacted in any way.

In 2016, this time in the Baltic Sea, Russian aircraft again buzzed the Cook. (The photo below was taken aboard the ship during the incident.) A pair of Su-24s reportedly made twenty passes, according to an unnamed senior defense official. Two Russian Ka-27 helicopters came similarly close to the Cook the following day.

I remember these incidents well. They were relevant to my work at the time and remain so. If you follow me, you’ve likely seen my posts about Russian EW capabilities. I consider these to be dangerously underestimated among Western militaries, even after public acknowledgements of their successes against American weapons systems in Ukraine.

(The Cook couldn’t catch a break and in 2021—again in the Black Sea—Su-24s buzzed the ship once more. But you get the point.)

The reasons for Russia’s obsession with the Aegis, both the ship-based version and the Aegis Ashore systems in Romania and Poland, are obvious. I’m curious about them now given the ongoing escalation in Ukraine.

In response to Ukraine’s HIMARS and Storm Shadow missile strikes in Russia (which required Western targeting assistance), Russia fired its experimental Oreshnik missile, for which there are no publicly known countermeasures. After a short pause, Ukraine resumed missile attacks against targets inside Russia. Then came the assassination of Lieutenant General Igor Kirillov in Moscow and Ukrainian drone attacks on civilian apartments in the Russian city of Kazan.

Russia repeatedly sends signals regarding its escalation dominance in the region, but seemingly to no effect. Now very strange things are happening aboard yet another guided-missile ship, this time not the Cook (an Arleigh Burke-class destroyer) but the Gettysburg (a Ticonderoga-class cruiser)—but both rely on the Aegis.

Whether there were Russian aircraft near the Gettysburg when the ship fired on multiple US planes, we simply do not know. But if Russia can defeat, jam, or otherwise manipulate the Aegis system—and I’m not saying Russia has this capability, only that I suspect it might—could this capability be transferred to another platform (including sea and land-based), or could Russia deliver similar effects from a greater distance (including from space)? These are not far-fetched questions.

Again, I'm only sharing my own curiousities. The most parsimonious explanations regarding the incidents with the Gettysburg are human error and weapons system failure, especially given the US Navy’s many failures of seamanship in recent years. But it’s something to consider.

I also remain very curious about the explosion of the US’s Intelsat 33e satellite in October 2024. But here, too, the easiest explanations are incompetence or systems failure. After all, Boeing isn’t what it used to be.

Anyway—Merry Christmas, everyone!

6:18 PM · Dec 24, 2024

Jasonoho1913 @Jasonohoe

That something might be why Israel's air assault strike on Iran was aborted while in flight we know Russia was flying in a lot of advanced equipment in the weeks beforehand.

Lee Slusher @LeeBTConsulting

I had the same thought. Very compelling argument.

JC @JC2000K

Has the CO & XO been relieved yet? If not then I’m suspicious.

Lee Slusher @LeeBTConsulting 

We don't know yet, and that fact alone increases my suspicion.

Hawk Eye @HawkEye02723358

haven't there also been a lot of fires and accidents at US and western weapons manufacturing facilities the last few years?

Maybe this happens anyways, but it seemed like too many to be just accidents, and since the US is always denying, well

maybe bears can poke eagles too....

Lee Slusher @LeeBTConsulting

I suspect there's been a string of undeclared incidents, all of which said, essentially, "back off!"

Ed H. Hanna @EdHHanna

Those are legitimate and thought-provoking questions.

Of course, incompetence and systems failure have become prevalent in U.S. military technology in recent years (perhaps it has always been that way, but only recently has such information been widely shared by independent

Lee Slusher @LeeBTConsulting

Thanks, Ed.

Low Voltage @Catnetsys3

So why does Russia (and China) continue to pull its punches? They'll be given no quarter no matter what they do.

The Empire has years to suck Europe and Japan/SK dry and seem to be able to print money almost indefinitely.

Lee Slusher @LeeBTConsulting

Because they don't want a war.

Here’s something else to consider in light of the above—the loss of the Russian ship MV Ursa Major in the Mediterranean just three days ago. Initial reports in Western media claimed that the ship suffered an engine room explosion, but:

On 25 December, Russian state news agency RIA Novosti reported that Ursa Major was victim of "an act of terrorism", citing the vessel's owner.

Who knows? And maybe that’s the point.