So, Blockade Is Plan ... C, D?

Trump is announcing a naval blockade of Iran because, per Veep Vance, “Iran has chosen not to accept our terms”. Is that really how “negotiations” work?

“We are disappointed with how US behaved. Netanyahu’s call to Vance during the meeting shifted the focus from US-Iran negotiations to Israel’s interests. The U.S. tried to achieve at the negotiating table what it could not achieve through war. We came here with good faith, the press conference by Vance before he left Pakistan was unnecessary, we are committed & prepared to safeguard our nation’s interest and sovereignty”- Iran FM Seyed Abbas Araghchi

Trump on his beautiful blockade: “It’ll take a little while.” Yeah, I bet it will:

DD Geopolitics @DD_Geopolitics

Supreme Leader of Smart Decisions confirms they will indeed be blockading the Strait of Hormuz soon

SIMPLICIUS Ѱ @simpatico771

You can’t make this joke up

How this works, and everyone in the world knows it:

Patarames @Pataramesh

 Trump’s blockade & its dynamics:

- He got out of his “Powerplant & Bridge Day” ultimatum

- China-linked ships do most of the current traffic at the Strait of Hormuz

- China can rein-in Iran to some extend by limiting provision of satellite-intel targeting data

- But China can also provide targeting data on USN vessels, if China-linked tankers are attacked by USN.

- Dramatic impact on Global energy prices will show themselves almost immediately before any blockade effects are felt in Iran 

- Iran’s supplies & self-suffciency allow it to sit this out much less affected than the Persian Gulf Arab countries and the World

Will Schryver @imetatronink

 Iran Chooses THIS fight, on THIS hill, NOW.

As I have argued repeatedly, the kind of war the US will now be compelled to fight against Iran is precisely the battle the Iranians WANT to fight, and the one they have prepared to fight for decades.

Here’s what happened yesterday—clarified—when the USN tried to break the Iranian blockade:

DD Geopolitics @DD_Geopolitics

 Press TV Exclusive: US destroyer transit in Strait of Hormuz aborted under Iranian pressure

A Press TV investigation says a U.S. Navy attempt to send two destroyers through the Strait of Hormuz on Saturday ended in failure after Iranian forces intervened.

According to the report, the USS Michael Murphy (DDG-112) and USS Frank E. Peterson (DDG-121) attempted a high-risk transit but were detected and intercepted by Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) naval units.

Remember when the Iranian navy had been totally sunk?

The investigation says the ships used electronic warfare tactics and false identification to appear as commercial vessels from Oman, while navigating close to shore through shallow waters. Iranian forces identified the deception early and moved to block the passage.

Press TV says Iranian cruise missiles locked onto the vessels and drones were deployed overhead, with a warning giving the ships 30 minutes to withdraw or face attack. The U.S. ships then reversed course before entering the Persian Gulf.

The report frames the operation as a failed U.S. attempt to test Iran’s readiness during a ceasefire and to influence talks in Islamabad, adding that the mission did not achieve its objectives and risked escalation.

Meanwhile:

DD Geopolitics @DD_Geopolitics

 Vladimir Putin held a phone call with Masoud Pezeshkian, the Kremlin said. Pezeshkian congratulated Putin and Orthodox Christians in Russia on Easter and commented on the April 11 Iran–U.S. talks in Islamabad.

Pezeshkian also thanked Putin for Russia’s humanitarian assistance to the Iranian people and for Moscow’s principled stance, including on international platforms, aimed at de-escalation. Both leaders reaffirmed their commitment to further strengthening comprehensive, good-neighborly relations between Russia and Iran.

Also, for those who have claimed that China didn’t help Iran:

Megatron @Megatron_ron

NEW: China gave Iran real-life [= real time] footage during the war

Chinese firm MizarVision used AI, satellite imagery, and flight and ship tracking data to map US carrier movements, aircraft concentrations, air defense configurations, and pre-strike buildup during the war.

The company holds certifications tied to China’s military standards and has links to PLA-affiliated institutions.

Drawing from open sources, it fused fragmented data into operational patterns and published its analysis in near real time, effectively providing a continuously updated picture of US force posture that is then utilized by the IRGC.

Trump:

Trump announced a naval blockade on oil exports from Iran which will cause another massive increase on oil prices:

“We’re putting on a complete blockade. We’re not gonna let Iran make money on selling oil to people that they like and not people that they don’t like.

It’s gonna be all or none, and that’s the way it is. You saw what we did with Venezuela. It’ll be something similar to that, but at a higher level.”

.

“I was thinking about calling it the Gulf of Trump, but I decided not to do it.”

.

“I could take out Iran in one day. One hour.”

Rrrrriiight!

Larry Johnson:

The real action that will put the most pressure on Trump will start on Monday morning when the US stock market takes a nose dive… again… and the price of oil heads back up into triple digit territory. JD Vance actually did Iran a favor by breaking off first and walking away. This paints Iran in a very favorable light in the eyes of the global south, i.e., Iran was willing to negotiate, but the US refused to engage in good faith negotiations and bailed.

Amerikanets:

Just taking a step back to appreciate the strategic double bind Trump is in:

- If he gives into Iranian demands, the Democrats will crush him with his own rhetoric, portray him as weak, point out that “gave more money” to Iran than Obama did. The Iranians are holding firm in their demands and refusing to give in to pressure. The Israelis can blow up a deal at any moment, and Trump is clearly too weak to restrain them.

- If he escalates he’ll just double down on being responsible for sending gas to $6+ dollars a gallon and triggering a global economic depression. The longer the war drags out, the worse it’ll be. There’s no clear path to victory, and any deal he might be able to put together at a later date is likely to be even less favorable than the one he just refused.

He’s chosen to resolve this, apparently, by accelerating the negative economic effects of the war without directly attacking Iran. It makes no sense because there’s no way out of this trap. This conflict is probably the most egregious unforced foreign policy error in American history.

Unforced? Tucker:

“I feel sorry for him, as I do for all slaves. He is not free in this moment.“

Lastly, Patty Marins explains ten strong points of Iran’s positions:

Patricia Marins @pati_marins64

14h

The bad news

In JD Vance’s own words, he stated that Iran has not accepted the US/Israel terms for establishing peace.

But I’d like to know what kind of negotiation this is, in which terms are simply imposed. Did anyone inform the American delegation that this isn’t a surrender treaty?

They seem to be living in a different reality. This is not how you negotiate peace, and this delegation certainly includes many people who know that very well.

Here are 10 points explaining why Iran is not in a position to give in:

1. It controls the Strait of Hormuz, and any attempt to take it would be extremely bloody and result in heavy casualties;

2. It can close the other strait using the Houthis;

3. It has maintained a stable daily rate of missile and drone launches for several weeks, demonstrating it has a large arsenal;

4. Its ground forces still have intact equipment and high morale, especially after the failure at Isfahan;

5. No one knows where the enriched uranium is, nor is there any effective way to seize it;

6. It is Iran that is effectively sanctioning America, with fuel prices and inflation already knocking at the door;

7. It is Iran generating pressure on Trump from Gulf countries;

8. It is Iran generating pressure on Trump from its Asian and European allies;

9. Iran is well aware of the shortage of interceptors and is actively exploiting it;

10. Its air defense capabilities are gradually improving through the deployment of new equipment, showing that Iran has a long-term strategy.

On the other hand, the daily bombings are steadily eroding Iranian infrastructure. The decisive factor in this war is precisely whether this resilience will prove sustainable in the long run.

But the infrastructure damage applies to Israel in spades, and the economic and political pressure on Trump is about to escalate dramatically.