Seymour Hersh's Iran Scenario

Hersh’s scenario sounds like a pretty garden variety Neocon fantasy. Here’s a pertinent excerpt:

DD Geopolitics @DD_Geopolitics

American investigative journalist Seymour Hersh in his latest Substack article wrote:

A major U.S. bombing campaign against Iran is expected to begin as early as this weekend, according to (his trusted) Israeli and American sources.

Approved by the Trump administration, the strikes will focus on key military and nuclear infrastructure, including the fortified Fordow facility, where Iran’s most advanced centrifuges are located deep underground. The delay in timing, Hersh reports, is due to Trump’s desire to avoid disrupting U.S. markets when trading opens Monday.

The operation goes beyond targeting Iran’s nuclear capabilities—it aims to destabilize the country's leadership. U.S. and Israeli planners are counting on internal unrest to break out, hoping that strikes on military bases, police stations, and administrative centers will incite broader opposition. Hersh says there are even unconfirmed reports that Ayatollah Khamenei may have left Tehran.

While some in Washington favor installing a moderate religious figure to lead the country in a transitional phase, Israeli officials reportedly reject this, pushing instead for full political control through a loyal replacement. These internal disagreements reflect a deeper divide over what post-strike Iran should look like. Intelligence circles are also looking to Iran’s ethnic minorities—particularly Azeris with alleged CIA ties—as potential tools to spark wider dissent.

The plan, according to Hersh, bears resemblance to previous Western interventions in Libya and Syria, where external pressure led to long-term instability and suffering. The attack on Iran, he warns, could have similar consequences, potentially fragmenting the country and inflaming the region—all while being driven by Netanyahu’s strategic aims and Trump’s desire for a major geopolitical “win.”

2:43 PM · Jun 19, 2025

Regarding the internal debate at the White House, here’s one of the issues over which there is disagreement:

Megatron @Megatron_ron

NEW:

Trump is hesitant to approve U.S. strikes on Iran unless it’s certain the Fordow nuclear facility can be destroyed using the GBU-57 “bunker buster” bomb - The Guardian

While some defense officials believe the bomb could work, others argue only a tactical nuclear weapon could destroy the deeply buried site.

Trump has ruled out nuclear options and is holding off on strikes for now, hoping the threat alone might push Iran to negotiate.

8:45 AM · Jun 19, 2025

Again, Trump appears to be living in some sort of fantasy world conjuring up in the imaginings of Jewish Nationalist fanatics.

-- GEROMAN -- time will tell -  -- @GeromanAT

5h

U.S. Special Envoy Steve Witkoff called the Iranian foreign minister several times this week, according to Israeli media reports

Witkoff reportedly urged Iran to "reconsider" the nuclear deal and end hostilities with Israel as quickly as possible.

Did Trump allow the Israeli sneak attack because Netanyahu convinced him that it would lead to Iran caving to Anglo-Zionist demands? Trump did, the day before the sneak attack, speculate out loud—as is his wont—that an Israeli attack could speed a deal.

Israel's defense minister:

"Iran's Supreme Leader Khamenei cannot continue to exist"

Some commenters to the above tweet point to hard realities. To start with, while the GBU-57 weighs 30k lbs., relatively little of that is made up of the explosive charge. The theory behind the design is to penetrate deeply before exploding, and that’s why most of the weight is steel of some sort. Further, the fortification of Fordow isn’t simply that it’s buried deeply. There are also construction features that disperse explosive charges and also disperse the tunnels in various ways.

net_ghost @R0T_NET

6h

Israel has been destabilizing the middle east with the help of the US since '48 so that Israel can form their "Greater Israeli State". The only thing interfering with them in this goal is Iran since its a regional power. They want regime change in Iran. They used nukes as the pretext for their attack. Its not really about the nukes.