Saturday Roundup
Mandates, Elections, Education
Friday started well, with DC Judge Kollar-Kotelly granting a temporary restraining order Thursday that prevents both civilian and active-duty military plaintiffs from being terminated after they sued the Biden administration over religious exemptions to COVID-19 vaccines. It ended on a down note, from the judicial standpoint, with Justice Amy and Justice Brett joining the liberals on the SCOTUS in rejecting an emergency application from Maine health care workers. Maine provides no religious exemption from the mandate, in apparent deliberate violation of the First Amendment right to free exercise. Justice Gorsuch wrote a strong dissent, joined by Justices Thomas and Alito, pointing out that by all normal standards granting this emergency application should have been a no-brainer.
For a longer analysis, I recommend Andrea Widburg who, after taking the decision apart, labels Amy and Brett “squishes”. Here’s the gist of it:
To understand how nonsensical Barrett's one-paragraph statement is, it's worth first reading Justice Gorsuch's dissent, in which Justices Thomas and Alito joined. After stating the facts, Gorsuch makes some simple, clear points:
A baseline for an injunction is the likelihood of success on the merits. Gorsuch [maintains] that the petitioners are likely to succeed on the merits because the Maine regulation is deliberately discriminatory against religion, something that manifestly violates the First Amendment.
States can engage in actions that discriminate against religion if the state's acts are generally applicable and manifestly neutral. ...
In his brief analysis, Gorsuch points out that Maine did not deny that it was discriminating against religious people, so the question became one of compelling state interest. ...
Gorsuch agreed that the state has an interest in protecting patients and health care workers, but he pointed out that Maine cannot claim that people unvaccinated for health reasons are safer to be around than people unvaccinated for religious reasons. The same logic applies to the possibility of too many employees getting sick, breaking the system: there's no evidence that unvaccinated religious people are more likely to break the system than those unvaccinated for health reasons.
Gorsuch also attacked the appellate court for engaging in "an error this Court has long warned against," which was giving way too much credence to Maine's position.
In the meantime, the Covid Regime is pushing ahead with its efforts to crush organized resistance to the mandates, in the face of increasing opposition. CTH is reporting that 26 NYC firehouses are closed due to staff shortages caused by the impending mandate. There has also been a significant slowdown in trash collection, with a third of NYC sanitation workers resisting the mandate. It appears that organized labor is getting the message: they are in the cross hairs. The military is reported to be getting nervous, as “thousands” of Air Force personnel—including basically irreplaceable pilots and technicians—continue to resist. Preparedness is starting to look shaky. And, in some good news from IL, a federal judge has granted a temporary injunction against enforcement of the mandate at a hospital system. The lawyers are now seeking to extend the order beyond just that system. Any illusions that this is about public health are being trashed by the data that’s now coming out—data that the Covid Regime was surely aware of before the public got wind of it.
On the election front …
Shipwreckedcrew did a very brief tweet that puts what happened in Wisconsin in perspective. In my recent post regarding Margot Cleveland’s fine analysis—Margot Cleveland Has An Answer For Election Fraud—I ended on a bit of a sour note, pointing out that anti-Trump Republicans had recklessly colluded with Dems, enabling the fraud of 2020 simply to get rid of Trump. SWC’s tweet is very pointed:
SWC goes on to point out two key factors involved in this (I’m expanding a bit on his actual words):
The action of the GOP officials in WI was paralleled in other states, and it gives cover to Dems—Hey, the changes were all bipartisan! But, look. GOPers can be dumb, but they’re not that dumb. They knew as well as anyone the likely effect, the intended effect, of the changes they agreed to. Problem: We know that, but how do you prove it?
The further problem is that so many opportunities for fraud were created that it was bound to be impossible to cover them all in the limited time after the election. Again, that was an intended effect.
OTOH, SWC also has several interesting observations for the upcoming VA gubernatorial election. I won’t try to get into the Fairfax fraud v. USPS incompetence issues. These are simply big picture items to keep in mind:
Second level analysis of the McAuliffe campaign fiasco yesterday for which Lincoln Project lamely attempted to take responsibility:
This overt effort to play the racism card follows after two weeks of Obama and Harris campaigning with McAuliffe.
Joe Biden was resurrected in the 2020 primaries by black women in South Carolina.
The Dems expected a similar dynamic to play for McAuliffe and carry him to victory.
The late resort to the racism scare tactic means that it is Dems who are scared--black voters aren't in line.
They might not vote for Youngkin.
But the Dem fear is they're prepared to sit this one out.
A failure of black voters to rally to save McAuliffe will send shockwaves through Dem ranks headed into 2022.
The possibility that Biden Admin policies and what they have produced might crater Dem party prospects next year will break the caucus into numerous factions with each having a view on how to same themselves in 2022.
The number of black voters in SE Va is not small.
It will be obvious early in the vote count whether they stayed at home.
We conclude the roundup on an educated note.
Data is coming in on the effect that the Covid Regime had on “the children”. We’ve seen some early data previously and the current data therefore comes as no surprise. This is from IL, but will certainly prove true in all similar states—those where the big city schools were shut down by the radical government teachers. The primary victims will also come as no surprise:
Student test scores in Illinois plummet, offering first broad measure of the pandemic’s impact
Far fewer students tested at grade level this spring than two years ago before the pandemic. Public school enrollment also is down statewide.
Significantly fewer Illinois students met English and math standards on state tests this year, according to preliminary data released by the Illinois State Board of Education on Friday, providing the first broad look at the pandemic’s effect on academics.
Nearly 18% fewer students met grade-level standards in math than they did two years ago. For English, nearly 17% fewer students performed at grade level than two years ago. Black, Latino and low-income students showed the greatest academic losses.
Follow the link for the very ugly numbers in detail chart form. A second article details a virtual educational hat-trick:
Preliminary state data released today confirms what many educators and parents predicted …, chronic absenteeism worsened, fewer students met grade-level expectations in English language arts and mathematics, and the effects of remote learning were hardest on minority students and English language learners,
And yet … all that happened with more teachers. Go figure, right? Check these gruesome numbers out:
Among English learners, the decline in meeting standards was stark: 51.5% in English language arts and 54% in math. Similarly, low-income students saw a 31% drop in English and 38.7% dip in math, while special needs students saw declines of 30.4% in English and 23.5% in math.
How about this:
The data released Friday also shows a 2.5% drop in student enrollment statewide due to the pandemic and a 21% rise in chronic absenteeism -- one in five students missing 10% or more of the school year -- over 2019. Chronic absenteeism was highest among English learners, and Latino and Black students.
Overall, public school enrollment declined by nearly 70,000 students last school year -- a 3.6% drop from the previous year, including the 2.5% attributed to the pandemic. That trend is in line with other states according to Education Week, said Brenda Dixon, research and evaluation officer for the Illinois State Board of Education.
I wonder what those former students are up to? Ask the police about that—those that remain.
Are there any silver linings? Only one is mentioned. Given the disastrous education results, YMMV:
Silver linings
Among the few silver linings in the data was an increase in the number of full-time teachers statewide by almost 2,000 educators. New enrollment in teacher preparation programs also increased by 23%, with a 17% increase in completion.
Illinois schools also added more teachers of color last school year -- 1,251 additional Latino teachers and 184 more Black teachers. Latino and Black teachers now represent a greater proportion of the teacher workforce -- up from 5.6% and 5.8% respectively in 2016-17, to 7.9% and 6% respectively last year.
The state board has awarded $3.5 million for Career and Technical Education Pathways Grants to support 100 high schools in creating an educator pipeline, focusing on recruiting teachers of color.
This year, the agency is working with higher education institutions to develop plans for recruitment and retention of teachers of color. That includes allocating $2 million in federal pandemic relief funding to create affinity groups for teachers of color.
Teacher pay and retention also has increased. Teachers now earn $70,705 per year on average -- 3.9% more than in 2019-20 -- and 87% are staying in the profession -- a 1.4-percentage-point increase over 2020.
Imagine that. The kids aren’t learning, they’re staying away from school, but there are more teachers getting more pay and … the teachers like their jobs! The Covid Regime is working.
I briefly wondered whether Brett and Amy were waiting for the suit against mandates brought by the 19 state Attorneys General, then I remembered how they disposed of Texas v. Pennsylvania voter fraud case after the 2020 election without any explanation. Abandon all hope ... of a SCOTUS rescue. I've used the term "squish" regarding Kavanaugh elsewhere, but I now believe that's much too mild a term for him and Ms. Justice Amy.
The real danger, which I assume our government and even the Supreme Court are to stupid to realize, is that people are turning off. They have lost trust in our institutions. Really religious people follow a higher power and don't look to the Supreme Court for validation. People determined to make their own health decisions will not risk their lives even when their job is at stake. An obviously incompetent government will be ignored, and don't expect raucous demonstrations to affirm this. They will quietly go about their business while observing the bare minimum of enforceable laws, but you will have lost them, forever.