Sabotage Update: Crimea, Germany
By now readers will have learned of the sabotage attack on the Kerch Bridge. It’s the longest bridge in Europe and provides a rail link from the southern Russian region of Krasnodar to Crimea. It spans the Kerch straits, which connect the Black Sea and the Sea of Azov, with its important port of Mariupol:
The bridge has both roadway as well as railroad sections, and it appears that one of the roadway sections was severed. Whether other structural damage occurred is not known for certain, but there are reports that rail traffic will be quickly restored. In addition, however, there is a long preexisting ferry route that can also accommodate rail cars, although it will obviously be much slower. Reports are that the damage was caused by a truck bomb on the roadway, which ignited tanker cars on the railroad.
You can find fairly full coverage at Moon of Alabama (Ukraine SitRep - Recent Incidents Of Concern For All Sides) and a very informative video at Brian Berletic’s New Atlas (Impact of Crimea Bridge Attack & Ukraine's Next Likely Offensive). From a military perspective, the purpose of this attack on the important bridge appears to be linked to the stalled Ukrainian offensive in the Kherson region as well as the likely new offensive to be launched from the Ukrainian held area of Zaporozhye toward the Sea of Azov. The goal would be to cut the two rail supply connections from Russia to Kherson and Crimea to possibly isolate these two regions from the rest of Russia and, theoretically, trap Russian forces with limited possibility for resupply. That’s all theory, but there are reports of NATO forces conducting reconnaissance patrols in Zaporozhye in preparation for that offensive:
My expectation, FWIW, is that the Russians will be far less inclined to trade land for Ukrainian losses if the Ukrainians do attempt a Zaporozhye offensive. Even when land was traded by the Russians in this fashion, the Ukrainian offensives stalled with heavy losses without gaining strategic advantage. This time could be different because of the important infrastructure involved.
Moon also, in the same linked article, discusses what could be an important development in the deployment of Russia electronic warfare. As many are probably aware, the Ukrainians have been utilizing Elon Musk’s freely provided Starlink service. Now, however,
Meanwhile the Ukrainian side of the conflict experiences a communication failure that is likely way more consequential.
Adam Kinzinger🇺🇦🇺🇸✌️@AdamKinzinger - 16:26 UTC · Oct 7, 2022
Evidently the Starlink system is down over the front lines of Ukraine. @elonmusk should make a statement about this, or, this should be investigated. This is a national security issue.
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Tore @potifar66 - 21:55 UTC · Oct 7, 2022
Some of the outages led to a “catastrophic” loss of communication in recent weeks, said one senior Ukrainian government official with direct knowledge of the issue.
ft.com: Ukrainian forces report Starlink outages during push against Russia
Some of Elon Musk’s SpaceX devices stopped working when Ukrainian soldiers liberated territory, Kyiv officials say
The Russian army is leading globally in its abilities to wage electronic warfare. It can disable ground based radio traffic on any frequency. It has now found ways to also disable ground to satellite connections as used by the Starlink constellation.
At the beginning of the war the Ukrainian military was supplied with thousands of Starlink ground terminals that can connect to the swarms of small Starlink satellites, which were financed by the Pentagon, but managed by Elon Musk's companies. They allowed for communication between Ukrainian ground units as well as for general command and control of larger operations. Without Starlink the Ukrainian command will depend on cable based field telephone, runners and couriers. All of which are extremely vulnerable in an artillery rich environment.
The German story is only available through Twitter posts, which I’ve gleaned from TGP (BREAKING – SABOTAGE! Two Communications Lines (GSM-R) Cut in Germany – Rail Services in Northern Germany Suspended). As I type, there are no claims of responsibility, but the German authorities are treating this as deliberate sabotage. This could be another attempt to escalate the conflict, perhaps to force Germany into a more active role. Again, as I type, it appears that service has been restored at this time:
This German language tweet provides a map:
Meanwhile, Macron is scolding Zhou for his “imprudent” Armageddon statements. All this suggests growing concern in the collective West that they are losing this thing and need to change the dynamics dramatically, but without disclosing their intentions to their publics.
Confirmed. Both road and rail traffic resumed.
Hhhmmm. This is getting very complex, isn't it? I'm no Sun Tzu, and I'm torn both ways: frustration at Putin's apparent lack of action and the seeming setbacks; but also mindful of the longer, strategic game, and that with each passing day, the Western situation (especially here in Europe) gets worse. At the moment, anyone suggesting that this could go nuclear is being called deluded. I wonder. With the insanity of Biden, Blinken, Nuland, et al, is it really beyond the realms of absurdity to think that these maniacs might go all in? Let's hope not.