Russian Screw-Up Near Kharkov

That’s the sum of it. For weeks we’ve been hearing about coming Ukrainian “counteroffensives,” really simply counterattacks. The major focus, of course, was on the big “counteroffensive” against Kherson. That came off as expected and, as documented in the WaPo, it was a major disaster for Ukraine. However, for at least the last week, and probably longer, we have also been hearing about a planned Ukrainian attack near Kharkov, directed toward Izyum—a significant transportation crossroads for supplying the Donbass region from the north and northwest.

It appears that the Russian command in the area must have been complacent, because the rumored Ukrainian attack did come off and gained significant ground. I haven’t heard of heavy Russian casualties, but the ground that was given up will have to be retaken. Moon of Alabama has the story:

The Izium 'Counteroffensive' Success / Disaster

"It's a disaster," says Dima of the Military Summary channel.

I agree. A disaster for the Russian Special Military Operation.

“Disaster” is, I think, far too strong a term, but it’s a setback—more so in a PR sense than a strictly military sense. It certainly puts a dent in the image of a relentless Russian forward progress and of Russian competence and superiority—even as projected by the WaPo. It seems the area—which had in the past seen repeatedly repulsed Ukrainian attacks—was being lightly defended by what amounted to beefed up local paramilitary police, without much heavy support. The accounts I’ve seen state that Russian paratroopers were sent in to evacuate the beleaguered locals, which suggests a basically orderly retreat.

The point is, however, that if we have been hearing about an impending Ukrainian attack in the region, what excuse is there for the Russian command in the area to be caught unawares. In that sense this is undoubtedly a major screwup. The Russians have air superiority and surveillance capabilities that should have allowed them to have seen an attack of this size coming.

This doesn’t change the overall dynamics of the conflict. Screwups occur in wartime, and this wasn’t a major loss as such things go, but it will undoubtedly require the Russians to restructure their forces in the area in unanticipated—but shoulda been anticipated—ways. I’ll be surprised if the Ukrainians manage to get to Izyum, but we’ll have to see how nimble the Russian response is. I would not like to be the local Russian commanders who will have to answer to Putin.

Here are excerpts from Moon. You can follow the links for maps and further discussion:

… what we know is that there were mostly conscripted men of the Luhansk Peoples Republic at the frontline when this episode started. The troops that held the town of Balakleya for two days where Russian National Guard forces. Those are militarized police units, not real armed forces. The Russian military had to send army forces to evacuate them.

Apparently the whole Russian front in that area was very thin and had too little artillery support. The Ukrainians moved extremely fast skipping towns and just blocking off local resistance to move on. They had a very significant number of tanks and armored transport as well as long range artillery support by several HIMARS systems. Many of the units must also have had night vision equipment as they did not stop even after sunset. There are also reports of strong foreign elements but those are hard to verify.

Significant tank forces and armored transport that was missed by intelligence and surveillance?

The Russian side seems to have had little information about the size of the attack. The forces in the area were too few and too light. There should have been way more forces in the area to block the Ukrainian move much earlier.

Sounds like complacence.

Armored Russian reinforcements are now coming in from the north from the northern Kharkov region as well as from the east through Svatove. But they will still need some time to reach the front lines and to set up for battle.

...

Going this deep and this fast makes the attacking Ukrainian troops vulnerable. They will need some time to consolidate and to move up their artillery. Their supplies will have to come from Andivka on the left of the map and from Chuhuiv on the upper left. That are some 75 kilometer or 45 miles one way distances.

The Russian missile forces can interdict those routes by destroying the bridges along the way. They should do this as soon as possible. Andivka itself is surrounded by a river in the south, west and north. The handful of bridges over the river should also be dropped to cut the town off.

Ukrainian forces south of Izium and Lyman try to cross the Siversky Donets river to attack those cities from another direction. The idea is likely to bind the Russian forces there and to not let them move north to counter the upper Ukrainian strike.

...

Heads will have to roll for this disaster, especially if it takes weeks of months to correct the situation.