Russian Military Update

I’ve used Patricia Marins’ work a number of times in the past. Today she offers a concise picture of what’s going on in Ukraine, which I hope will help readers understand. It’s a common complaint that Russia is proceeding too slowly. However, if you compare the militaries involved here to the situation in the past world wars, you’ll quickly realize that the Russian armed forces are actually almost miniscule in size compared to the German, Austrian, and Russian armies of the past. And yet they’re dealing with the same vast territory, while trying to also keep casualties to a fraction of the casualties incurred in those horrific wars.

Patricia Marins @pati_marins64

Ukraine: The War of Attrition Has Been Lost and Has Given Way to a New Phase

After three years and numerous weapons systems, Western optimism is giving way to the harsh reality of the battlefield.

The war in Ukraine has always been extremely challenging for the West, but it became nearly impossible when the West believed it could win a war of attrition against the Russians on their own border.

About a year and a half ago, I wrote about this:

https://x.com/pati_marins64/status/1732096521082966238?s=46…

Today, this phase of the war is ending with a crushing Russian victory. Despite losses on their side, they still hold around 40-50% of the Soviet legacy within their borders, more what is deployed and being repaired.

Regarding Ukrainian equipment losses, based on my research, losses are estimated to be around 80-90% for tanks and vehicles, and 60-80% for artillery, reflecting high attrition especially in Kursk and Donetsk (2024-2025).

Considering these are visually confirmed losses and, based on my experience, an additional 25-30% of losses may go unreported, I am convinced that almost everything delivered to Ukraine has already been lost.

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Summary Table (2025): …

Tanks: 731 delivered, 585-690 lost (80-90%)

Armored Vehicles: 1,557 delivered, 1,165-1,400 lost (75-90%)

Artillery: 1,039 delivered, 625-850 lost (60-80%)

Sources: Kiel Institute, Oryx, CSIS (3,966 tanks/vehicles lost), BBC, Forbes Ukraine.

These figures from various sources clearly indicate the end of the attrition phase.

What followed is a new phase, ongoing to this day. It appears to be a drone maneuver warfare, where the Russians have more options connected to their arsenal, while the Ukrainians are more limited.

This drone maneuver warfare involves fixed-wing ISR systems linked to counter-battery drones like MACE, produced by UAC, along with numerous modified FPV drones. All of this is supported by a vast network of repeaters extending the drones' reach to dozens of kilometers.

The defeat in the attrition war has pushed Ukraine into a defensive drone warfare phase, which employs various drone types and a limited arsenal, but has been effective in slowing down the Russians. I am not sure if we should fully call it drone maneuver warfare, but that seems to be what it is.

Russia's challenge in Ukraine today is no longer how to face the depleted European arsenal, but how to bypass Ukrainian resistance by increasing their advance speed while minimizing losses.

At this stage of the war, I do not believe there are any weapons capable of changing the battlefield reality. At most, new weapons might cause some damage to facilities inside Russia, but, in my view, without significant changes on the front.

7:34 PM · Jul 15, 2025

So, in brief, the Russians are working on methods to advance against the drone defense while still minimizing casualties. Since the rate of advance has been accelerating, one assumes that they have successfully adapted to this new type of warfare.

Today also Andrei Martyanov looks at the really big picture. The strategic reality is that, but for US submarine launched nuclear missiles, Russia would probably long ago have taken out most US bases that are enabling the war on Russia. It is in this context that Trump continues to blather. First, Andrei reports on new developments by Russia in the field of hypersonics:

I Plan To Talk About It ...

... tomorrow. The implications are enormous. I want to repeat--when I say that the West lost the arms race, it is not a hyperbole or a figure of speech. I mean it as I say it. I made my career and reputation of the last 11 years precisely by describing and documenting this process. So, today:

Translation: MOSCOW, July 15 — RIA Novosti. President Vladimir Putin met with the head of the Russian Academy of Sciences Gennady Krasnikov. The head of the academy spoke about hypersonic weapons, textbooks and international contacts. Key statements — in the RIA Novosti material.

--The Russian Academy of Sciences conducts fundamental research in the interests of the country's defense and security, and has obtained a unique result in the field of hypersonics. --All research on this program is in demand, they have been agreed upon with the chief designers of weapons. --Krasnikov will separately report to Putin on the results of this work.

What does it all mean? Consider this: after the Vladimir Putin's Address to the Federal Assembly on March 1, 2018 it became clear that there was an immense qualitative leap in technologies which made now fully combat tested weapons systems possible. Weapons such as Kinzhal or Zircon render any NATO AD system useless, with the exception of the fantasies of NATO fanboys and amateurs. I spoke about "rumors" of new generation of 3M22 Zircon getting to the parameters such is M=13+ and the range of 2,500 + km. I think we can reasonably expect something even more impressive which completely redefines such things as naval and air warfare. Having something which is launched from some Yasen-class SSGN or latest versions of Gorshkov-M class FFGs which flies at M=15 at 3,000 km. Yes, that makes NATO surface fleets completely not just obsolete, they already are, but a scrap metal.

Mind you, this is not just enormous velocity and range, this is yet another leap in materials, sensors and C4. And what else comes after that? Who knows. We'll have to wait and see how this will further affect strategic nuclear forces, but one thing is clear--NATO has nothing which can even come close, especially in terms of AD, and it will have even [less] than nothing (if such thing is possible at all) and the only "military" action they can possibly take will be, and you have guessed it already, sabotage and terrorism, which, as we all know--the weapon of the weak.

And here are his comments on the very inadvisable Trump blather:

Sure, He Merely "Asked".

Now there is a bit of conundrum for Donnie.

(Bloomberg) -- Donald Trump asked Volodymyr Zelenskiy whether Ukraine could strike Moscow, an inquiry that the White House says was merely a question but one that came hours after he voiced frustration at Russian President Vladimir Putin’s refusal to accept a ceasefire in the war. During a July 4 phone call with the Ukrainian president, Trump quizzed Zelenskiy about whether Ukraine could hit the Russian capital and St. Petersburg if given US long-range weapons, according to a person briefed about the conversation. Zelenskiy replied that it could if the US provided the weapons, the person said. Asked about the details of the call, which were first reported by The Financial Times, White House Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt said: “President Trump was merely asking a question, not encouraging further killing. He’s working tirelessly to stop the killing and end this war.”

I wonder what does this situation remind me of? Hm? Ah, yes, the handling of Epstein files--nothing to see here, folks--move along, move along. But if Trump didn't know that the only way 404 can TRY to hit Moscow (a dubious proposition, considering Moscow's AD) ONLY if the US provides say JASSM-ERs with 1,000 km range. There is so much to unpack here. Imagine a neighbor going to find a hitman and "merely" asking if he can kill you? Nah, just the neighbor is just asking, no hard feelings. BTW, how much is to off somebody? Again, just asking, nothing to it. And no, Karoline, Trump doesn't know what real work is or what does it mean to be a statesman. He doesn't care about "killing".

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P.S. Donnie, ask Pentagon if Russia can strike Washington D.C. I guarantee, you will be surprised.