Making predictions regarding an end to Trump’s war on Iran is a bit of a mug’s game. I keep saying that for purely economic reasons Trump badly needs a deal. And when you add in military factors—munitions drawdowns of all sorts, forced pullout from most bases, casualties, fatigue affecting both personnel and naval/air assets—the case for pulling the plug seems overwhelming. On the other hand, Trump has got himself into an almost insane fix.
To start with, Trump has two ways to pull the plug: either make deal or cut and run. As I wrote last night, Iran will never accept a deal that is worse for them than the MOU—which was Trump signing a surrender. Since time is on Iran’s side—they’re winning the war of attrition—they’re in no hurry for a formal deal. That’s obvious from Iran’s willingness to call off deal after deal due to Trump’s rhetorical attempts to portray himself as in control, rather than the Loser that he is. Iran will insist on Trump’s humiliation as a de facto part of any deal, and they can wait for that while inflicting ever more economic and military damage. The current situation works for them.
On the other hand, there are many (especially former military types) who insist that a Cut and Run—the fullest of TACOs—is the best “deal” Trump can get. It would be a de facto solution that might work, rather than a formal deal. Iran would be good with this, because it would inevitably involve a de facto US withdrawal that would allow Iran to get most of what they want—including de facto reparations through strait related fees and very real humiliation of Trump. That last factor is something that I believe most of the military types are not taking into account. I’ve been listening to Joe Kent argue that Americans wouldn’t even notice a cut and run. It’s true that Americans wouldn’t see dramatic videos like at the Kabul airport. Nevertheless, the lesson of long term political damage to Biden will not be lost on Trump. For this reason, and personal Trumpian reasons, I don’t believe a cut and run is on the cards—unless Iran can keep the war going for months longer.
Of course, after 6 months of his own crazy rhetoric/propaganda campaign, the political reality is that Trump will be portrayed as a Loser under either option. He will be blamed for all the economic fallout. And what makes this situation so sticky is that Trump finds himself squeezed by two sides, neither of which wants the war to end—either at all, or not any time soon. Jewish Nationalists—the core of Trump’s financial, and therefore political, base want the the war to last forever. They will regard either option as a complete betrayal, and they will make their views known both in the media world and in the campaign contribution world. But Iran is in no particular hurry for an actual end to the war, either. They will take as much time as necessary—actually, the more time taken suits Iran’s purposes perfectly—to drive the hardest possible deal. And Iran will have the full backing of Russia and China in this, because Iran’s strategy suits their purposes as well.
As a result, Iran’s upping of the ante last night came as no surprise. Nor do developments this morning surprise:
The Hormuz Letter @HormuzLetter
3h
BREAKING: Iran announces its Strait of Hormuz agreement with Oman is “hereby postponed” over US interference and Trump’s threats, saying Iran “will not conclude any agreement under the shadow of threats,” per Sepah News.
Iran adds Trump “is trying to claim credit for an agreement that is purely with Oman,” stating that “even with an agreement between Iran and Oman, the Strait of Hormuz will not open if the United States continues its violations,” with reopening “contingent upon a change in US behavior and the correction of its violations.”
Iran adds that once reopened, the Strait will operate “under full sovereign authority,” with fees charged on every transiting ship.
Note what Iran is implicitly doing with this latest move. They are implicitly forcing Trump into a cut and run by freezing him out of any Iran - Oman deal. My guess is that Trump will need to up the ante substantially to get back in—we’re talking about sanctions relief and return of seized funds. But the charging of fees could also be seen as a proxy for reparations and canceling of sanctions. Trump will be forced to pay a very high price for a signing photograph.
But the rumors at this point are that Trump will do a deal at virtually any cost. Danny Davis takes issue with that, but the rumors are persistent:
Al Jazeera Breaking News @AJENews
BREAKING: Israeli media, citing unnamed Israeli sources, reports that US President Donald Trump and his advisers are seeking a deal with Iran “at any cost”.
The report says Israel is obtaining most information from Washington indirectly.
DD doubts this report and pushes for a cut and run—he calls that a “walkaway”, but that’s not how it will look in America.
Daniel Davis Deep Dive @DanielLDavis1
I have significant doubts this is true. President Trump already had a deal, with the MOU, and he got impatient with it, days into the agreement, and started using force against Iran to compel submission, which didn’t work.
Now he has boxed himself into a corner – yet again – by declaring he’s giving Iran “one last chance“ to do a good deal. If President Trump now goes and makes a deal as bad or worse than the MOU, he is humiliated — and there is no logical reason why Iran would give him a face-saving deal, so he lives politically to fight again another day.
All this is true. Trump likes to say that others—Xi, Iranians, etc.—really want a deal but don’t know how to do it. The reverse is true. Trump is the screwup. But that doesn’t change the hard reality that Trump really needs a deal, and a deal rather than a walk away—or slink away—would be preferable. He just doesn’t seem to get it that the other side is fully assessed of just how bad Trump’s position is.
Still, the most viable path is the “walk away“ plan, where he doesn’t even have to worry about what Iran does or doesn’t do, he can just withdraw American forces from the blockade, and stop shooting at Iran when they administer the SOH according to their plan.
The problem with Trump becoming a Walkaway Don is that he tars himself as a big time Loser—a Big Talker who makes impulsive, moronic decisions that cost the US hugely in economic and military terms. Who lets Jewish Nationalists tell him—the POTUS—what to do.
Of course, DD is absolutely correct in his closing paragraph. Trump has deftly and stupidly placed himself between a rock (Jewish Nationalists) and a hard place (Iranian Nationalists). Neither side will offer him so much as a single fig leaf—he’ll be left to cover his backside all on his own, and there won’t be enough fig leaves in the world to accomplish that.
I know that’s hateful for many Americans to hear, but there’s nothing that’s going to stop that as it is, so stop searching for some magical deal that gives Trump a fig leaf cover, because Iran is not going to participate in such a deal.
Prof Pape, who seems to be a slowly reforming Cold Warrior, is still pushing the Escalation Trap. I still think the US has shot its wad. With the waning of US power projection capabilities, the timeline is telescoping shorter, from the Iraq and Afghan forever wars all the way down to this 6 Month Wonder that is bringing the Anglo-Zionist Empire to its knees. This intimation of a deal isn’t a “windfall”—it’s basically just justice. Reparations.
Robert A. Pape @ProfessorPape
2h
Is Trump about to grant Iran a $140B windfall to reopen the Strait of Hormuz?
Markets are cheering a false dawn, but the math and signals prove this is just another trap
All good things come to an end:
Mark @Mark4XX
3h
No win for Trump. He tried to kidnap Iran-Oman negotiations and pass them off as America’s. Iran gets it. All Iran really has to do now is wait until Trump’s whole house is in flames.
Dr. El-Sayed, a progressive former public health official, narrowly defeated Representative Haley Stevens, a moderate, in a bitter primary dominated by the politics of Israel.
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Wake up. Smell the coffee. Attacking Iran made no sense. We had no chance of subduing that country exclusively with air and missile power. Our sanctions failed. Our diplomacy, our diplomatic attempts to undermine, isolate Iran have failed. And we have created an alliance between Russia, Iran and China. That alliance was identified by none other than Zbigniew Brzezinski back in the mid 90s. And he said that if that should emerge, that should arise, our position on the Eurasian continent was at serious risk. In other words, we can't prevail against that. And that's what's happened.
That's why this war, which began on behalf of Israel to make sure that Israel was safe again and would be more than safe--would be the dominant power in the region, and that their interests and the interests of their friends in the United States would be well served in the financial markets. All of that has now had a terrible impact on us strategically because, in addition to identifying us as a kind of a paper tiger after all this time, because we have the wrong instruments for the wrong war in the wrong place at the wrong time. We have now seen this alliance emerge and this alliance is backed by hundreds of other states and organizations around the globe. All of whom are sick to death of us, our bullying through the financial system, through the IMF to the World Bank, and want to see an end to this undesirable American financial and military hijgemony.
Real quick, everybody's worried about this midterms except Donald Trump. And why is Donald Trump not worried? Because of the enormous money behind him. You know, Larry Wilkerson sent me an email this morning talk talking to me about the 140 150 million in one particular pot designed to repeat the kind of action that was taken against Thomas Massie in Congress. Another pot of money of 750 million was designed to strengthen Israel's grip or the grip of the Israeli lobby and their billionaires on the Congress and legislation and the legislative process. you know this President Trump knows this and with that kind of money behind him, he can protect himself against any attempt to remove him. And at this point, I think that's his only concern that there would be an attempt to remove him from office after the midterms.
More Mac:
Wake up. Smell the coffee. Attacking Iran made no sense. We had no chance of subduing that country exclusively with air and missile power. Our sanctions failed. Our diplomacy, our diplomatic attempts to undermine, isolate Iran have failed. And we have created an alliance between Russia, Iran and China. That alliance was identified by none other than Zbigniew Brzezinski back in the mid 90s. And he said that if that should emerge, that should arise, our position on the Eurasian continent was at serious risk. In other words, we can't prevail against that. And that's what's happened.
That's why this war, which began on behalf of Israel to make sure that Israel was safe again and would be more than safe--would be the dominant power in the region, and that their interests and the interests of their friends in the United States would be well served in the financial markets. All of that has now had a terrible impact on us strategically because, in addition to identifying us as a kind of a paper tiger after all this time, because we have the wrong instruments for the wrong war in the wrong place at the wrong time. We have now seen this alliance emerge and this alliance is backed by hundreds of other states and organizations around the globe. All of whom are sick to death of us, our bullying through the financial system, through the IMF to the World Bank, and want to see an end to this undesirable American financial and military hijgemony.
Mac's feeling pretty cynical:
Real quick, everybody's worried about this midterms except Donald Trump. And why is Donald Trump not worried? Because of the enormous money behind him. You know, Larry Wilkerson sent me an email this morning talk talking to me about the 140 150 million in one particular pot designed to repeat the kind of action that was taken against Thomas Massie in Congress. Another pot of money of 750 million was designed to strengthen Israel's grip or the grip of the Israeli lobby and their billionaires on the Congress and legislation and the legislative process. you know this President Trump knows this and with that kind of money behind him, he can protect himself against any attempt to remove him. And at this point, I think that's his only concern that there would be an attempt to remove him from office after the midterms.