Simplicius has one of his lengthy Sitreps today, and it has a number of items of interest. The title gives away one of the major focuses—what could be coming up in the fall:
However, beyond the speculation on a major offensive, what caught my attention was Simplicius’ summary of recent information about Russia’s Rubicon—its increasingly devastating drone warfare. Simplicius gathers from a variety of sources so I’ll just quote it:
And Forbes has drawn attention to the growing threat of the notorious Russian ‘Rubicon’ drone force that has been shaking the AFU to its core:
Russia’s Rubicon drone formation has rapidly emerged as one of the most effective forces on the front, helping to expand the killzone and making it far more difficult for Ukrainian logistics.
As a result of relentless Russian drone attacks, Ukraine is facing a shortage of trucks, pickups, and armored transport vehicles, many of which are being destroyed on resupply and evacuation runs.
On whichever front Rubicon arrives, the situation immediately changes, as per the AFU:
In July, the New York Times reported that Ukrainian soldiers identified Rubicon as the turning point in Russia’s improving drone campaign. Rebekah Maciorowski, an American volunteer who leads the medical unit of Ukraine’s 53rd Mechanized Brigade, told the NYT: “The game changed when they came here.”
The article notes that Rubicon is coordinating its drone forces more and more closely with Russian assault units, for instance using the Molniya (“Lightning”) drone to attack Ukrainian defenders in conjunction with Russian assault units.
Ukrainian analyst Serhii “Flash” Beskrestnov highlighted in a Telegram post that Rubicon now plays a central role in strikes against supply routes, coordinating closely with frontline reconnaissance units. He argues the unit is part of a broader shift toward centralization and professionalization in Russia’s drone warfare.
On that note—a brief digression. The Russian Lancet drone has showcased its AI targeting capability again recently, specifically in AI-targeting identifying camouflaged enemy units. Southfront reported on it:
Artificial intelligence is now helping Russian Lancet loitering munition recognize carefully camouflaged targets in the special military operations zone in Ukraine, ZALA Aero Group, the producer of the system, revealed on September 4.
“The loitering munitions of the Lancet family, equipped with an intelligent guidance and target recognition system, are capable of detecting carefully camouflaged enemy equipment,” the company said in a press release posted to Telegram.
What strikes me as quite significant is the reference to the drone targeting of supply routes, logistics, vehicles of all sorts. It appears that this approach plays directly into the Russian war of attrition as well as the aim of keeping Russian casualties as low as possible. Check out these two lengthy tweets that describe activity on the Donetsk front, especially around Pokrovsk—but it applies everywhere.
Recently, the battles north of Pokrovsk, where Russian forces continue their active offensive, have been marked by an unusual media silence from both sides. This stands out because it may signal important shifts in tactics and strategy.
From the Russian side, such restraint is understandable. Avoiding public reports on progress in such a critical direction helps maintain the element of surprise and prevents Kiev forces from gaining insight into achievements and future plans. It’s a classic military trick aimed at disorienting the enemy.
From the Kiev side, however, the silence looks far more atypical. In the past, Kiev’s media machine eagerly exploited any opportunity to showcase successes and to refute Russian claims of advances, especially around Dobropolye. A clear example was when, in an attempt to stop the Russian breakthrough near Dobropolye, a full-scale information campaign was launched about the redeployment of reserves, including nationalist units, to “block and encircle” Russian forces — something that never actually happened. The absence of such messaging now may point to serious problems in this sector.
Since the fall of Vuhledar, Russian forces have been carrying out a concerted effort to collapse and capture the rest of Ukrainian-controlled south Donetsk Oblast. Now with that goal almost completed, the next goal for Russia in this direction is likely to seize two important settlements in Zaporizhzhia Oblast and Dnipropetrovsk Oblast: The city of Hulyaipole, and the town of Pokrovske.
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Presumably, in each of these sectors the Russian drone operators are deeply involved in the offensive operations. What strikes me is that the Russian drone war is at its peak effectiveness—in afflicting heavy attrition on the Ukrainian forces—when it is able to force the Ukrainian forces to shift forces, moving them out of fortifications to plug emerging gaps at some other point. That forces the use of transport, the movement of supplies and troops, and that necessarily brings the Ukrainians out into the open and makes them more vulnerable. And so the Russian strategy is to keep probing, looking for breakthroughs in lightly defended areas that will force the Ukrainians to redeploy—exposing themselves to drone attacks. This explains the high casualty rates for the Ukrainians and also explains the Russian reluctance to “fully exploit” such breakthroughs. The Russians don’t move beyond effectively defensible positions because that would lead to higher casualties. Instead, they inflict what casualties fall to them, then look for another area in which to repeat the operation. And on, and on.
Trump fired the woman who was in charge of employment figures, but the numbers haven’t improved. Government funded employment showed gains, but the manufacturing sector shed jobs. The consensus seems to be that employers are reluctant to hire because they’re wary of supply issues caused by the tariffs:
Wall Street Journal ^ | September 5, 2025 | WSJ Editorial Board
President Trump fired the Bureau of Labor Statistics commissioner last month because he didn’t like the monthly jobs numbers. He claimed the numbers were “rigged.” But Friday’s monthly report for August confirms that job creation has stalled amid his tariff barrage.
Employers added a mere 22,000 jobs last month while the numbers were revised down for the previous two by a combined 21,000. This means only 107,000 new jobs were created in the last four months—an average of 27,000. Monthly job gains averaged 167,000 last year.
Nearly all of the new jobs last month were in social assistance and healthcare (46,800), which rely on government spending. Industries with high tariff exposure shed workers, including manufacturing (-12,000) and wholesale trade (-11,700). Transportation equipment manufacturing lost 14,500, and manufacturing jobs overall this year have declined by 38,000. That tariff golden age is still over the horizon.
The Occam’s razor explanation is the uncertainty and additional costs from Mr. Trump’s border taxes. Caterpillar estimates that tariffs will cost the equipment maker $1.8 billion this year. Deere projects a tariff hit of about $600 million, mainly from higher steel and aluminum costs. Deere is also hurting because soybean farmers have seen their market share in China shrink after its trade retaliation. Tariffs are slamming U.S. auto makers like Ford ($2 billion tariff cost this year).
Jobs in mining also notably declined last month by 6,000. Oil and gas producers say the tariffs have increased prices for materials and caused them to pull back on drilling. Construction job growth has stalled since January and fell last month by 7,000, likely owing to the President’s immigration crackdown and higher building costs from tariffs.
(Excerpt) Read more at wsj.com ...
Nothing is easy—and that includes the professed desire to revive manufacturing in an economy that has been financialized. While manufacturers are unhappy with the tariffs—which runs exactly counter to what we were told to expect—the financial industry views the tariffs as the only thing keeping the bond market from collapse:
Read it. The impression I get is that the administration is, in a way, in a position a bit like the one the Ukrainians find themselves in. They try to put out one fire, or plug one hole, but the very act of reacting leads to another problem that needs to be urgently addressed. And so on. Something will give, and my guess is that it will be the bond market.
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The US economy is going to get ugly, I suspect it will not be too long, either. The moronic CONgress is deficit spending US into oblivion. Medicare, Medicaid are where almost the entire deficit are found, interest on the debt is getting bigger and bigger. When the bond market blows up it will be hell.
Is anyone else besides me totally disgusted by Trump's White House dinner with all of the oligarchs?
PUTRID !!!
The US economy is going to get ugly, I suspect it will not be too long, either. The moronic CONgress is deficit spending US into oblivion. Medicare, Medicaid are where almost the entire deficit are found, interest on the debt is getting bigger and bigger. When the bond market blows up it will be hell.