Ritter: Israel Strike On Iran Is Suicide

This morning Scott Ritter participated in an hour and 23 minute long discussion with Andrei Martyanov and Garland Nixon. I’m going to link to the start of Ritter’s ~20 minute long discussion of Iran’s missile capabilities, the limits of anti-missile defense, and related issues.

MISSILES, PLANES, AND SHIPS - WITH SCOTT RITTER AND ANDREI MARTYANOV

I’ll highlight a key issue that is of great importance. Ritter discusses Iran’s use of both liquid fueled and solid fueled missiles. The liquid fueled missiles use a Soviet era solution to the well known limitations of such missiles—slow loading times that are also visible to overhead surveillance. There remain other limits—liquid fueled missiles cannot achieve hypersonic speeds. However, Iran also fields solid fueled hypersonic missiles. Ritter states that what probably scared the wits out of the Israelis in the most recent Iranian warning strike—Macgregor references a Netanyahu presentation shortly after the strike in which Netanyahu’s hands were visibly shaking—was that the strike began with Iranian hypersonic strikes taking out two Arrow 3 sites. No warnings went off. The sites were obliterated out of the blue. That will happen again, if Israel goes ahead and attacks Iran. Anyone interested in these technical matters will want to listen.

Now, a counter view to Macgregor from MKB regarding the inevitability of a total regional war. However MKB does agree with Mac’s bottom line. Russia is irrevocably linked to Iran. We also note that Israel continues to make aggressive threats:

Israel threatens Iran with ‘DPS’ strike

The Iranians won’t know what hit them, Defense Minister Yoav Gallant has said

MKB:

Russia aligns with Iran, war clouds scatter

I’ll excerpt the portion that discusses Russian - Iranian cooperation most directly:

However, what deters the Israelis and causes uneasiness in the American mind is something else — Russia’s lengthening shadows on the West Asian tapestry.

American military analysts have disclosed that certain highly advanced Russian weaponry have been transferred to Iran in the recent weeks backed up by the deployment of Russian military personnel to operate these systems, including S-400 missiles. There is speculation that the secretary of Russia’s Security Council (former Defence Minister) Sergei Shoigu paid two secret visits to Iran in the recent period. 

Apparently, Moscow also responded to the Iranian request for satellite data on Israeli targets for its missile strike on October 1. Russia also supplied Iran with the long-range electronic warfare system “Murmansk-BN”. 

The “Murmansk-BN” system is a powerful EW system, which can jam and intercept enemy radio signals, GPS, communications, satellites, and other electronic systems up to 5,000 kms away and  neutralise “smart” munitions and drone systems — and is capable of disrupting high-frequency satellite communication systems owned by the US and NATO. 

To be sure, the Russian involvement in Iran’s standoff with Israel is potentially a game changer. From the US perspective, it raises the worrisome spectre of a direct confrontation with Russia, which it doesn’t want. 

It is in this scenario that official Russian news agencies have quoted presidential aide Yury Ushakov on Sunday that Putin plans to meet with his Iranian counterpart, Masud Pezeshkian in the Turkmen capital, Ashgabat, on October 11. 

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It is entirely conceivable that amidst the cascading regional tensions, Moscow and Tehran may have thought of bringing forward the formal signing of the Russian-Iranian defence pact, which was originally scheduled to take place in Kazan. 

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Interestingly, Ushakov added that Putin has no plans to meet Netanyahu. Putin is yet to respond to a request by Netanyahu for a phone conversation, made five days ago. ...

On the other hand, by chalking up an urgent meeting in Ashgabat — in fact, Turkmen president Serdar Berdimuhamedov was in Moscow only on Monday/Tuesday on a working visit — Kremlin is making it clear to Washington and Tel Aviv that Moscow is irrevocably aligned with Tehran and will help the latter no matter what it takes. (See my blog West Asian crisis prompts Biden to break ice with Putin, Indian Punchline, October 5, 2024)

MKB’s views here are of interest because of the continuing contradictory narratives about who drives the US - Israel cooperation. Here’s an article that clearly signals that the US - Israel cooperation is hand in glove on the policy level:

US Opposes Ceasefire In Lebanon, Urges Israel To 'Degrade' Hezbollah

Authored by Dave DeCamp via AntiWar.com,

The State Department said Tuesday that it doesn’t want to see a ceasefire in Lebanon and supports the heavy Israeli bombardment of the country to "degrade Hezbollah."

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Miller claimed the US "ultimately wants a diplomatic solution" but voiced strong support for Israeli military operations, which have killed more than 1,250 people, including over 100 children. "We support Israel’s efforts to degrade Hezbollah’s capability," he said.

The US is also calling for Lebanon to hold new presidential elections amid the Israeli bombardment. Lebanon hasn’t had a president since 2022, as the many different factions in parliament haven’t agreed to elect one. Hezbollah’s political wing currently holds 15 seats in the nation’s 128-seat parliament.

"What we want to see come out of this situation ultimately is Lebanon able to break the grip Hezbollah has had on the country … break the stranglehold that Hezbollah has had over the country," Miller said.

The US is still characterizing the Israeli assault on Lebanon as a "limited incursion" despite the massive bombings in Beirut and across the country.

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu signaled on Tuesday that more escalations were coming. In a threatening message to the people of Lebanon, he called for them to "free" the country from Hezbollah or they will face "destruction and suffering like we see in Gaza."

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In other words, Netanyahu is telling Lebanese: Either you kill each other, or we’ll kill you.

Ponder the US waging war on tiny Lebanon without any vote. Amidst a presidential campaign in which this doesn’t appear to be an issue. The only issue appears to be, Who loves Jewish money more and will do more to get more of that.