Report From The Sanctions Front, With Ukraine Update

Before we get to the sanctions front, here’s a brief update on the developments in the fighting at Soledar near Bakhmut in the Donbass. It’s sounding like the Russian forces have achieved some sort of breakthrough that significantly advances the slow encirclement of Bakhmut itself. Zelensky’s top adviser, Arestovich, has said: "We are on the defensive, they are advancing."

This afternoon the reporting on the fighting at Soledar is hot and heavy. Soledar is just north of Bakhmut in the Donbass and secures the northern approaches to Bakhmut. The fall of Soledar will therefore place Ukrainian forces in Bakhmut in even more jeopardy. Reports indicate that Soledar has basically fallen, while pockets of Ukrainian and possibly Polish troops remain trapped in the area. The following tweets are not comprehensive nor authoritative, merely typical of reporting:

Big Serge ☦️🇺🇸🇷🇺 @witte_sergei

Fighting is still going on in Soledar but it is now a matter of cleaning up a mess. There was no cohesive Ukrainian withdrawal. Some units fled, others are now encircled in disorderly pockets. There is no longer an organized and cohesive defense.

Geo_monitor @colonelhomsi

In Soledar, retreating units of the AFU left Polish mercenaries at the mercy of fate! Right now in Soledar, there is a collapse, where Ukrainians running and they forget to take foreign soldiers with them, said Ivan Filiponenko official representative of People's Militia of LPR.

If you click on the map below, you’ll see that there are English sub-captions:

ayden @squatsons

Soledar at the end of todays advances via Rybar.

In the following discussion—all 21 minutes of which is quite interesting—Douglas Macgregor asserts again what he has been saying for about a week. The Ukrainian forces in the south are crumbling, having been stripped of their best units which have been sent to Bakhmut. I take that reference to refer to the areas in the north of the Zaporozhye Oblast, where Ukraine had been building up forces for an offensive toward Melitopol:

The significance of what Macgregor is saying is that Russia has built up a very significant force in Zaporozhye and could open up an avenue for a relatively quick advance to the north, trapping the major portion of Ukrainian forces in the Donbass area.

Now, on to the sanctions front. Yesterday, Alex Mercouris remarked that Japan has been basically ignoring the sanctions regime and continues to import huge amounts of oil and gas from Russia. I’m not sure exactly where the Russian oil and gas is coming from. Russian oil from the Arctic is currently transported by tankers to China and India, but there are other possibilities. So, when I saw this item my interest was sparked:

Artyom Lukin @ArtyomLukin

Russia has managed to restore oil output at its Sakhalin-1 project after struggling with production following the exit of previous operator Exxon Mobil due to sanctions.

reuters.comRussia’s Sakhalin-1 near full oil output after Exxon exit -sourceRussia has restored oil output at its Sakhalin-1 project after struggling with production following the exit of previous operator Exxon Mobil Corp due to sanctions, an industry source said.

Japan has joint energy projects with Russia in the Sakhalin region, which it has continued despite the sanctions. Sakhalin lies directly north of Japan’s northern island of Hokkaido, and prior to WW2 was split in half between Russia and Japan:

The result of all this?

Russia-Japan trade surges despite sanctions – media

The growth is being driven by high global energy prices

Trade between Russia and Japan saw an annual increase of 10% in the first 11 months of 2022 despite Ukraine-related sanctions introduced against Moscow by the West, according to estimates made by TASS, based on Japanese trade statistics.

In monetary terms, bilateral trade reportedly amounted to 2.365 trillion yen (some $18 billion).

…

Russia, one of the world’s biggest oil producers and exporters, remains one of the major suppliers of liquefied natural gas (LNG) to Japan. The sanctions-hit country accounts for about 9% of Japanese imports of the fuel. Russian gas accounts for 3% of electricity generation in Japan.

Nevertheless:

Tokyo reduced purchases of Russian crude to almost zero in July and August. Moreover, Japan has joined the oil price cap scheme adopted by the Group Seven nations last month. The mechanism bans Russian oil cargoes that are traded above $60 per barrel from getting key services provided by Western companies, including insurance. The price ceiling may be revised depending on market conditions.

What’s going on here? This: Oil and gas from Sakhalin to Japan is excluded from the sanctions regime.

Hypocritical? Realistic? Both? But it doesn’t bode well for the economic war against Russia. The US is a long way off from Japan. Although US bases are near, supply lines are very long. China and Russia are very near.

So here’s what Alex Krainer is talking about today:

Is war on China in the offing?

US military is working hard on "setting the theater" for war on China, emulating the success it's had in Ukraine.

I don't know whether we’ll have a war on China this year, but it does appear that the western empire, led by the United States, is preparing for it in earnest. On Sunday, 10 January, Lieutenant General James Bierman, the commanding general of the Third Marine Expeditionary Force and of Marine Forces Japan gave an interview to the Financial Times in which he said that his command is working hard to replicate the empire's military success in Ukraine. 

I still want to believe that all this crazy talk will end up going nowhere, thwarted by the pressure of events in the Real World.