Quick Ukraine Updates And Commentary
Quick, because it will be in the form of embedded tweets and videos. Will Schryver has a very good track record in prognosticating how this conflict will go, so we’ll start with him. There has been some talk recently, including from the pro-Russian camp, of negotiations leading to a partitioned Ukraine that would allow for a NATO presence in Western Ukraine. Like Schryver, I’m very dubious:
Next war crime trial in The Hague?
This is a major factor in Russia’s ability to maintain it’s military’s capabilities—and of course Russia is reciprocating with the flow of energy to China. Russia and China know that together they stand:
And then there’s Lindsey! talking crazy:
In this 25 minute video Macgregor addresses Graham’s staged rant toward the end. The entire video is worthwhile:
Why is Lindsey Graham doing this?
What’s in it for him?
Same questions for Mitch McConnell.
My gut feeling is huge amounts of money, re Paul Manafort, to both parties.
You can come up with your random peace plan of choice - partition, plebiscite, whatever, and it all runs aground on the same rock. Washington would have to have limited, achievable war aims that it could articulate and a willingness to impose compromise in the Kiev government. Absent this, diplomacy is over until something changes on the battlefield.
The Zelensky visit was obviously staged with an eye to selling the Omnibus bill, the purpose of which was to avoid debate about the regime's spending priorities. One reason Zelensky was greeted like the second coming of Christ is that by making Ukraine a moral imperative, the regime can avoid any democratic debate on its domestic policies.
The Twitter files provide some insight here. Whatever the actual presence of foreign influence on Twitter, the regime needs a foreign threat, real or not, as a pretext for making criticism of the regime de facto illegal. Ukraine strategy, to the extent that such exists, is now a function of the regime's domestic political agenda.