First an admin note. This week and next are the time of year I devote to winterizing the yard. I’ll have professional help, but will still be occupied. As usual, I’ll try to juggle things and keep a flow of posts going.
The last time we checked in on Poland, the country was in its month long post election period during which a new government was supposed to be formed. It looked like the “pro-EU” coalition led by ueber EU eminence grise Donald Tusk would form the new government. However, Law and Justice, under PM Morawiecki, was still holding out hope that it could finesse a coalition sufficient to continue it’s own government. That month long period is now coming to an end, with the Tusk coalition in position to form a government, but …
Apparently President Duda has pulled some sort of fast parliamentary maneuver to provide Law and Justice with another month to try for a coalition. Morawiecki told parliament that he wanted to form a coalition that would transcend national divisions:
Morawiecki’s words were reportedly greeted with laughter. Still, expectations are that any new government in Poland will be a ramshackle, short term affair. Importantly, nobody expects any government to return to the full on support of Ukraine that Law and Justice pursued until this summer.
This looks like Zelensky’s Curse striking again. Every country that commits “for as long as it takes” ends up descending into political chaos.
Speaking of Ukraine, last night we briefly referenced Simplicius’ account of political infighting in Kiev while the country burns. Today MoA offers quotes from two commentators who suggest that the infighting in Kiev may reflect infighting in the Anglosphere. Here’s the start to a much longer post:
The knives are out in the fight over the Ukrainian throne.
Various Ukrainianmedia (in Russian) report of plans to fire this or that general. Andrei Yermak, Zelensky's chief of office and the real power behind him, is currently in the U.S., allegedly to get the okay for firing the commander-in-chief of the Ukrainian army General Zaluzhny. Other Ukrainian media are calling for Zaluzhny to become the new president. Tomorrow CIA director Burns is expected to be in Kiev to tell Zelensky that his time is up and that he, Zelensky, will have to go.
It appears obvious that two competing factions are trying to outdo each other in the sphere of Western media. Zaluzhny fired his shot in the unsanctioned Economist piece, and it would seem that Zelensky backers are doing their own parallel counter-work.
Larry Johnson reminds of the larger powers who are behind this fight:
One critical point I failed to make in yesterday’s article regarding the competing narratives regarding Zelensky and General Zaluzhny — it looks like the Brits are backing Zaluzhny while the CIA is trying to save Zelensky and dump Zaluzhny. I base that conclusion on the fact that the Economist, a British publication with close ties to MI-6, gave Zaluzhny the celebrity treatment, while the Washington Post, the go-to rag for the CIA, blamed Zaluzhny for Nord Stream.
Fun to watch, unless you are on the frontline.
There, things are getting worse for the Ukrainian army day by day.
Who knows the truth, but something will have to give. End of regime days. But could that also spell end of regime days in London and DC?
On to Israel. Here we revert to another past topic, the disastrous impact of the war on Gaza on Israel’s economy. The Cradle is running a very thorough article:
Israel may never recover from its post-October 7 economic collapse. The Palestinian resistance managed not only to destroy Israel's internal security perception, but also to erect significant risk barriers for foreign investors.
I normally approach The Cradle with some caution, but this article is mostly a rehash of a Financial Times article—which is behind the usual paywall. Building on Simplicius’ earlier analysis of the economic crisis, linked above, the FT tells us:
Despite this dire situation, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, who is heavily reliant on support from right-wing, ultra-Zionist political factions, persists in allocating "vast sums" to non-essential ideological and settler-colonial projects, diverging from the typical wartime economy protocol.
Netanyahu has earmarked a record 14 billion shekels ($3.6 billion) in discretionary spending for the five political parties comprising his coalition government, much of it intended for religious schools and the development of illegal Jewish settlements in the occupied West Bank.
In a bitter irony of the war on Gaza, multiple Israeli construction projects have temporarily ground to a halt as they primarily relied on exploiting Palestinian laborers. The FT reports that Zionists “are upset at the sight of Arab workers holding heavy tools,” so they “don’t want to have Palestinian workers there.” Such disenfranchisement comes despite many businesses being reduced to pleading for donations to remain afloat.
...
Tourism, a potential economic lifeline, offers little respite for Tel Aviv. …
Despite persistent efforts throughout 2022 to revive tourism, October saw a massive 76 percent year-on-year decline. The onset of Al-Aqsa Flood further decimated travel, with daily flights to and from Ben Gurion Airport plummeting from 500 to a mere 100.
By contrast, in October 2022, international arrivals exceeded 370,000. With no end to the war in sight, and Zionist settlers themselves fleeing in droves, it seems unlikely Tel Aviv will become a popular holiday destination again anytime soon.
…
Despite such rhetorical bombast, there are ample indications the Zionist state is as dangerously deluded about its economic sustainability as its military prowess. Reports published by Tel Aviv’s Start-Up Nation Policy Institute (SNPI) “think tank” reveal a grim outlook.
Just two weeks after Al-Aqsa Flood erupted, the organization issued a study on damage to Israel’s tech sector, once a source of national pride and joy, and a bellwether for its prosperity more generally. The findings were stark.
…
Operation Al-Aqsa Flood has achieved surprising successes, challenging established security measures and potentially signaling the beginning of a larger unraveling of the Zionist project. The risks for Israel have never been higher. Tel Aviv's settler-colonial economy, reliant on the subjugation of Palestinians, may be facing a precarious future, possibly marking the next domino to fall in this unfolding scenario.
Well, The Cradle’s cheerleading rhetoric is obvious. Nevertheless, it appears to be the case that this time—as opposed to past Israeli “lawn mowing” in Gaza—really is different. For example, regarding the claim that Al Aqsa Flood has achieved surprising successes, Scott Ritter has come out with an analysis that makes the same claim. Ritter makes his case by maintaining that the Hamas operation fits the technical definition of a “raid”. From that standpoint, it was very successful.
It’s a lengthy analysis, but there is a bottom line—although the question of whether this was all an Israeli Deep State inside job remains:
The precise means by which this victory took place is the subject for another time. But the basic elements of this victory are well-established.
Hamas effectively neutralized Israel’s vaunted intelligence services, blinding them to the possibility of an attack of this scope and scale.
When the attack occurred, Hamas was able to strike with precision the very surveillance and communication nodes the IDF relied upon to mobilize a response in case of an attack.
Hamas defeated those Israeli soldiers stationed along the barrier wall in a stand-up fight. Two battalions of the Golani Brigade were routed, as were elements of other vaunted IDF units.
Hamas struck the Headquarters of the Gaza Division, the local intelligence hub, and other major command and control facilities with brutal precision, turning what should have been a five-minute response time into many hours—more than enough time for Hamas to carry out one of its primary objectives—the taking of hostages. This they did with extreme proficiency, returning to Gaza with more than 230 Israeli soldiers and civilians.
Pay close attention to the definition of a “raid”:
The Marine Corps defines a raid as “an operation, usually small scale, involving a swift penetration of hostile territory to secure information, confuse the enemy, or to destroy his installations. It ends with a planned withdrawal upon completion of the assigned mission.”
This is precisely what Hamas did on October 7.
What were the objectives of this raid? According to Hamas, the purpose behind the October 7 raid were threefold.
First, to reassert the right of the Palestinian people to a homeland not defined by the Abaraham Accords.
Second, to release the more than 10,000 Palestinians held prisoner by Israel, most without having been charged with a crime, and none with any notion of due process.
Third, to return the sanctity of the Al Aqsa Mosque in Jerusalem, Islam’s third holiest place, which had been desecrated repeatedly by Israeli security forces over the past years.
What’s going on in Gaza? Information flow is heavily controlled. Andrei Martyanov claims this as a photo from Gaza, although he admits that data is “very contradictory—each side is making its own claims, and hard info is … hard to come by:
Looks like a photo of IDF's burned armor in Gaza.
Looks like the column got ambushed and was destroyed. The data pouring from Gaza is very contradictory, but one fact which is undeniable is a large number of IDF tanks (Merkavas) lost to Palestinian fire. Some say the number is around 100, others say it is 135 and counting--doesn't matter, it is large
My own fairly non-controversial view is that the outcome will depend largely on how long the fighting continues. The longer it continues the worse will be the political outcome for Israel. And remember, war is a continuation of politics. The political outcome is what counts. Someone in Hamas has been reading their Clausewitz. We shall see.
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Duane Patterson credited Saudi Arabia Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman for blocking action against Israel in an Arab League meeting he hosted in Riyadh this weekend.
Patterson wrote, “Salman is ruthless and determined at all costs to keep the country, and the House of Saud’s rule of it, together for the long haul. He knows, like everyone else in the world with moral clarity, that Iran’s hegemonic goals do not stop with the eradication of the Jews. Christians are next. And once the world that remains is Muslim, in their fever dream of a utopian world, they turn inward to the wrong kind of Muslims.
“Sunnis [Saudi’s religion] are apostates to the Shia and have been for centuries, and bin Salman, with this move, is recognizing that it’s in his own long-term interest to side with the allies that are going up against his biggest threat in the region.”
So in the short-term, Arabs are giving Israel room to get rid of Iranian-backed Hamas. Bibi is doing just that.
Don Surber writes today:
Duane Patterson credited Saudi Arabia Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman for blocking action against Israel in an Arab League meeting he hosted in Riyadh this weekend.
Patterson wrote, “Salman is ruthless and determined at all costs to keep the country, and the House of Saud’s rule of it, together for the long haul. He knows, like everyone else in the world with moral clarity, that Iran’s hegemonic goals do not stop with the eradication of the Jews. Christians are next. And once the world that remains is Muslim, in their fever dream of a utopian world, they turn inward to the wrong kind of Muslims.
“Sunnis [Saudi’s religion] are apostates to the Shia and have been for centuries, and bin Salman, with this move, is recognizing that it’s in his own long-term interest to side with the allies that are going up against his biggest threat in the region.”
So in the short-term, Arabs are giving Israel room to get rid of Iranian-backed Hamas. Bibi is doing just that.
Very insightful point.
Andrei Martyanov:
“each side is making its own claims”