Prigozhin 2

Via Zerohedge and Ukraine controlled media I have fuller version of Prigozhin’s original call to arms—which he now says wasn’t really that:

Those, who destroyed today our guys, who destroyed tens, tens of thousands of lives of Russian soldiers will be punished. I’m asking: no one resist. Everyone who will try to resist, we will consider them a danger and destroy them immediately, including any checkpoints on our way. And any aviation that we see above our heads.

I’m asking everyone to remain calm, do not succumb to provocations, and remain in their houses. Ideally, those along our way, do not go outside. After we finished what we started, we will return to the frontline to protect our motherland.

⚡️Prigozhin accuses Russian army of attacking Wagner, threatens to respond.

Wagner Group Chief Yevgeny Prigozhin said Russian Defense Ministry attacked the group's bases in the rear.

"We have 25,000 (soldiers), and we're going to respond," he said. https://t.co/1xk7oeGQBK

— The Kyiv Independent (@KyivIndependent) June 23, 2023

Sure sounds like … an insurrection? A real one?

Zerohedge has an update, the first I’ve seen since the first Prigozhin post. It turns out that earlier in the day Prigozhin basically claimed that the SMO was a fraud, that there was no threat to Russia. Whoa! Some are saying that that totally crossed a redline for the generally tolerant Putin:

Update(1641ET): After months of unchecked, ultra-provocative statements from Prigozhin aimed at both top military commanders as well as Kremlin decision-makers, it seems the Wagner chief may have finally crossed Putin's lines. It's being reported in Russian state sources that the Russian president has been briefed on the earlier audio tirade made by Prigozhin, which essentially declared war on the defense ministry. The Wagner statement had been circulated widely after it was posted on Telegram late at night local time.

And now Prigozhin finally appears to be in hot water, under formal investigation for mutiny, per the statement in TASS:  

Russia’s National Anti-Terrorism Committee on Friday demanded that Yevgeny Prigozhin, the founder of the private military company Wagner, stop unlawful actions and said the Russian Federal Security Service started a mutiny investigation in connection with his recent statements.

"The statements that are being spread on behalf of Yevgeny Prigozhin are absolutely unfounded. In connection with these statements, the Federal Security Service of Russia has started an investigation into a call for an armed mutiny. We demand that unlawful actions be stopped immediately," the committee said in a statement.

He's now saying the audio remarks were merely a call to justice and "march for justice", denying it is a coup attempt targeting military leadership - so there may be a Wagner attempt underway to walk back the comments.

No, this is not likely to turn into a civil war. It is what in Russia is called ‘razborki’ (gangland warfare)

And it looks like one gang is about to get totally crushed because the other has all the weapons and the security services on their side https://t.co/ZiiiwNm7BK

— Dmitri Alperovitch (@DAlperovitch) June 23, 2023

Earlier in the day, hours before the remarks saying the country's military leadership "must be stopped" - Prigozhin had in a surprising turn gone after the very decision to go to war in the first place. 

Alperovitch’s statement (he was a founder of Crowdstrike, and is Ukrainian) sums up what I had in mind in the first Prigozhin post. Wagner is in no position to go it alone. If I were a betting man, I’ll go with Alperovitch here.