Prigozhin

Jun 23, 2023

It’s impossible to know what’s going on. Today Prigozhin, the chef, frontman for Wagner PMC, and aspiring politician, claimed that the Russian army attacked Wagner. The video he posted looks pretty unconvincing. His initial statements sound like a clear call for an armed coup. After the FSB opened a criminal case he sounds like he’s backtracking. However, the statements from the FSB sound like they’re taking this very seriously. At least two high ranking generals—including Surovikin, who’s in charge of the SMO—have issued “appeals” to the soldiers of Wagner.

I have no particular insight into Russian politics. I discount claims that this is a “psyop” to induce Ukraine to come out of their “pause” and come out in the open. But it’s all fairly opaque. It appears to be a genuine coup attempt, judging from the statement by Surovikin (below). I would add, however, that Wagner does not have its own heavy equipment—its operations are supported by the regular Russian army. Therefore it’s difficult to see this gaining traction. Meanwhile, Russian combat operations are continuing.

So here’s how that situation has developed so far. I’ll update with a new post later as events dictate.

War Monitor

@WarMonitors

#BREAKING Yevgeny Prigozhin announced the beginning of "the elimination of evil in the face of the country's military leadership." Prigozhin urged not to resist and not interfere with the combat work of the Wagner PMC fighters, those who fight back will be destroyed. After the "restoration of justice," the Wagner fighters, according to Prigozhin, will return to the front.

1:36 PM · Jun 23, 2023

Clint Ehrlich

@ClintEhrlich

In latest audio message, Prigozhin claims that the majority of the Russian military supports Wagner against Shoigu.

He says soldiers are sending him messages of support, saying they'll finally receive the ammunition they need.

3:19 PM · Jun 23, 2023

Clint Ehrlich

@ClintEhrlich

The FSB has opened a criminal case against Prigozhin.

He is charged with calling for armed rebellion.

This is not theater. It's a real power struggle inside Russia.

2:57 PM · Jun 23, 2023

The_Real_Fly

@The_Real_Fly

Putin is aware of the situation unfolding around Prigozhin, all necessary measures are being taken, Kremlin spokesman says - TASS

3:10 PM · Jun 23, 2023

-- GEROMAN -- time will tell - --

@GeromanAT

The situation around PMC "Wagner"

The FSB has had its say: a criminal case has been opened on the fact of calling for an armed rebellion.

3:21 PM · Jun 23, 2023-- GEROMAN -- time will tell - --

OSINTdefender

@sentdefender

Yevgeny Prigozhin has now released a statement saying, “This is not a Military Coup. This is a March and a Wish for Justice. Russian Soldiers do not need to be worry because we will not Interfere with them.”

2:49 PM · Jun 23, 2023

-- GEROMAN -- time will tell - --

@GeromanAT

The full statement of the Prosecutor General's Office on the Prigozhin case:

"On June 23, 2023, the Investigation Department of the FSB of Russia legally and reasonably initiated a criminal case against Prigozhin E.V. under Article 279 of the Criminal Code of the Russian Federation on the fact of organizing an armed rebellion. His actions will be given a proper legal assessment. For this crime, punishment in the form of deprivation freedom for a term of 12 to 20 years.

4:22 PM · Jun 23, 2023

-- GEROMAN -- time will tell - --

@GeromanAT

According to the FSB DSP, all information disseminated in social networks on behalf of Prigozhin about the missile and bomb attacks allegedly inflicted by the Ministry of Defense on the rear units of the Wagner PMC is untrue and is an informational provocation.

The Russian Armed Forces continue to carry out combat missions on the line of contact with the armed forces of Ukraine in the area of the NMD.

Prigozhin's statements and actions are in fact calls for the start of an armed civil conflict on Russian territory and are a "stab in the back" to Russian servicemen fighting pro-fascist Ukrainian forces.

Due to the seriousness of the situation and the threat of an escalation of confrontation in the Russian Federation, the FSB initiated a criminal case on the fact of Prigozhin's call for an armed rebellion .

4:23 PM · Jun 23, 2023

Steve Lookner

@lookner

Statement of Russian general Sergei Surovkin, telling Wagner forces to "Stop the columns, return them to the points of permanent deployment" (Statement was made on video, posted by Russian media outlet RBC)