This is going to be another of my busy days. What I’ll try to do here is to briefly mention stories I’ve looked at over the last few days but haven’t been able to fit in. Or which have taken on additional significance.
Yesterday and today Simplicius the Thinker has provided detailed updates on the Russian offensive to encircle the Ukrainian stronghold at Avdeyevka (Avdiivka), which is the location from which much if not most of the Ukrainian shelling of Donetsk City has originated. Go to Simplicius for a step by step update, but this tweet gives the overall picture:
-- GEROMAN -- time will tell - -- @GeromanAT
well - don't take it from me - take it from a pro Ukrainian channel The take of the bloody Tericon Hill was a strategic victory for Russia.
Here are two points of importance from the Ukrainian post:
The writer notes that Avdeyevka is “much more fortified than” Bakhmut was. That should give you an idea both of the importance that Ukraine places on Avdeyevka as well as the difficult nature of the fighting.
The writer then warns that this could be a repeat, not of Bakhmut, but of Debaltsevo. Presumably this means that Ukrainian forces, although suffering enormous losses at Bakhmut, were not encircled and systematically destroyed but were able to withdraw. The contrast is to the battle of Debaltsevo, in 2015, in which Ukrainian forces were forced to withdraw from the town under heavy fire after being caught in a cauldron. Some reports indicate that the Russian Federation interceded to stop a massacre of the Ukrainian troops:
This time around the Ukrainians would be up against Russian regular army forces rather than DPR/LPR forces. The consequences would be even more dire than they already have been, due to the size of the forces involved. Many of Ukraine’s most experienced troops are in Avdeyevka. Their only means of resupply (rail) is perhaps only a few days from being cut off.
So, the Russian SMO in Ukraine grinds on with—if anything—increasing momentum, despite rumors of war elsewhere.
In the second half of today’s post, Simplicius aggregates a lot of news items regarding Palestine and US military prepping/responses. First, however, a brief word about Larry Johnson’s post today:
CHEMICAL FALSE FLAG, DELAYED ISRAELI OFFENSIVE AND PALESTINIAN CIVILIAN CASUALTIES MOUNT
Embedded in the post is a relatively brief (17 minute) video of LJ speaking with Clayton Morris. The two discuss the possibility of false flag events that might be used to justify Israeli use of chemical weapons. In that context, LJ raised, as an example, the British/American false flag use of chemical weapons against Syria in an attempt to justify the insertion of US forces (an illustration of the type of psychopaths who run our Deep State, which we alluded to yesterday). They also point to the implausible Israeli claim that Hamas fighters had been running around Israel carrying “recipes” for chemical weapons. Morris and LJ characterize that claim as “the clearest bullshit”, and explain the implausibility of it all. LJ also gets into the whole issue of the difficulty of using such weapons in urban areas like Gaza, including in tunnels. The bottom line: Be aware of the possibility of false flag ops, propaganda initiatives, gaslighting of various sorts.
Balancing against these considerations are reports that the US is flailing about attempting to shut down the chance for a major war. The idea seems to be to get regional Arab governments to somehow set up a replacement government in Gaza. Somehow.
In the meantime, Hamas is taunting Israel to come and get them. Israel claims to be ready to go, and Netanyahu appears to be announcing a religious jihad of sorts—a worrying development:
Disclose.tv @disclosetv
NOW - Netanyahu: "We are the people of the light, they are the people of darkness... we shall realize the prophecy of Isaiah."
David Petraeus, fwiw, is warning that Gaza could turn into “Mogadishu on steroids.” In this context, there are moves and statements that must be alarming the US—not least because, while the US has been getting stiffed by regional governments, important regional governments are coordinating with Russia.
RF foreign minister Lavrov traveled to Iran (Russia is reported to be allowing Iranian planes to land at its base in Syria, following Israeli attacks on Syrian airports).
The RF deputy foreign minister met with the Iraqi foreign minister in Moscow.
Prominent politicians in Turkey are calling for Turkey to step in (from Simplicius):
Recall the Tucker/Macgregor video from yesterday (?) in which Macgregor once again warned that Turkey will be under a lot of pressure—as the foremost Sunni military power in the region—to intervene. Recall, too, that Pakistan has offered Turkey nukes.
Meanwhile again, while the US shifts forces around, attacks on illegal US bases continue. The US for its part is planning for massive evacuations:
Not long ago we mentioned that Russia now has a nuclear powered cruise missile. What that means is that the missile can, basically, circle the globe indefinitely, reaching anywhere, probing defenses, etc. Simplicius raises that again today.
Does this alarming development explain some recent force deployments? Like two carrier battle groups departing San Diego. I can only speculate.
I think your post title is very telling Mark. I might be reading too much into it, but kinda seems like you might believe we have arrived at , “not if, but when” with stupidity and incompetence in ascendency.
But what do I know, I’m just a simple farmer from Kansas. :-)
Mark - I thought you round appreciate this:
https://www.arkhaven.com/comics/comedy/stonetoss/murky-waters