Pre-Gaslight Reflections

Full disclosure. I won’t be watching or listening to Trump tonight—life is too short for that. I’ll rely on others. However, for those who—against their better judgment—inflict this upon themselves, here are a few points of reality to stay in touch with.

First, here’s Mac talking to Glenn Diesen. This is right at the beginning:

You have the claim, this incessant drum beat: ‘We’ve already won! We destroyed everything that could be destroyed. They’re down to nothing. They can’t keep up. They’re running out of missiles. Their back is against the wall, etc., etc., etc.’ Well, if that’s true, why is it that every time Trump makes some sort of statement along these lines, a wave of missile attacks comes out of Iran? Tactical theater ballistic missiles, drones that do enormous damage to Israel and to, frankly, the Gulf Emirates. I mean, if that’s really the case, why hasn’t Iran already hoisted the the white flag? I think that those claims have to be dismissed up front.

What I am hearing from people who are on the inside that I trust is that we have perhaps reduced Iran’s ballistic missile capability from 100% down to perhaps 70%. That their air defense is being very effective against the unmanned surveillance aircraft, selectively against other kinds of aircraft but has not performed as well as they’d hoped. But they have always been willing to absorb the strikes. They’ve always known that their infrastructure would be brutalized and they think the payoff is worth the trouble.

Two points: 1) The surveillance drones are very important to a modern air campaign. 2) The payoff—driving the US out of the Middle East—is, indeed, huge.

So that’s the first thing. The second thing is, if things are going so well and we’ve had so much success with the air and missile campaign, why do we want to introduce ground troops into the equation? Doesn’t seem to make a lot of sense.

So I don’t think you’re getting a truthful assessment from the US side. I think the president is desperate. I think he faces public humiliation--inside the United States as well as overseas--if he admits the truth. And when he starts talking about, ‘Well, maybe I’ll just leave and dump all of this into the laps of Europeans,’ we ought to stop and and consider a few things. First of all, commercial traffic through the straight of Hormuz has fallen by about 95 to 97%. 15 million barrels of oil a day have been taken offline. The physical shortages have already hit so hard that right now Singapore jet fuel is selling at 231 dollars a barrel.

Those two data points are a couple of many—helium, urea, fertilizer, oil, gas, and the list goes on. Other countries are getting hammered for a war they never asked for—and then Trump has the nerve to demand their thanks!

Here’s a snapshot of just one sector:

And as for the gaslighting …

The Kobeissi Letter @KobeissiLetter

1h

BREAKING: US intelligence has determined the Iranian government is not currently willing to engage in substantial negotiations over ending the US-Israeli war, per NYT.

Assessments say Iran believes it is in a strong position and does not have to accede to America’s diplomatic demands, though it is willing to keep channels open.

BREAKING: Iran says no talks have taken place through mediators for a temporary ceasefire with the US and Israel.

This morning, President Trump said Iran’s President “asked the US for a ceasefire.”

So, when Trump says the war will be over in 2-3 weeks, that’s only in his dreams. So many things have been broken that even if the fighting were to stop it would take many months to make a stab at fixing things. This will be totally on Trump, and his base—working class whites—is starting to break away. All his yackety yack about the stock market will only make matters worse.

The piper will be paid in the end.