Poof! Is It On To A Major Middle East War?

As of this morning it was looking as if there would be some sort of deal for a ceasefire, based on US pressure for exactly such a deal. Now? Not so much:

Megatron @Megatron_ron

BREAKING:

The US has denied reports of a permanent ceasefire in Gaza in exchange for Iran not targeting Israel, which means that Iranian retaliation against Israel is now inevitable.

The talks in Cairo between Israel and Hamas collapsed despite strong pressure from the US.

Netanyahu announced an invasion of the Rafah refugee camp in Gaza, where 1.5 million Palestinian refugees are housed.

Iran's foreign minister announced today from Damascus that there will be a response to Israel for the embassy attack.

The leader of Hezbollah also announced in his speech today that there will be an Iranian response with certainty.

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Here is a conversation on this topic between Danny Davis and Doug Macgregor—it comes at the tail end of a quite interesting 46 minute video. Davis and Macgregor are pessimistic about the prospects of keeping the US out of a major Middle East war, one which they insist could be disastrous for the US. They agree that that is Netanyahu’s aim, because Israel will lose without the entry of the US. It appears that Israel is preparing to attack Hezbollah, but Israel is simply not up to the challenge of Hezbollah without a basically full US commitment to combat—air, missile, and naval. Macgregor maintains that an Israeli attack on Hezbollah will become a war of annihilation—for both—and that it’s tough to see Israel winning that absent active US involvement.

Davis points out that Israel struck the Iranian general in the embassy—rather than on the way to or from the embassy—precisely because that would constitute an attack on Iran to which Iran would have to respond. Again, geared to starting a major war to draw the US in. Macgregor assumes that Mike Johnson—whom he disparages as “a wholly owned subsidiary of The [Israel] Lobby”—will support whatever the Israel Lobby and Netanyahu tell him to support. Lots of people think this is like 1991 and they can benefit from a war (presumably financially). Macgregor thinks that’s foolish, because he further believes there’s a very high probability that Russia—which has major military assets throughout the region—will be dragged in, along with other significant players, including China. The fact that Russia has bolstered its presence along the Golan Heights is a pretty clear indication that Russia will be a participant in any wider war.

The first thing that will result from a wider war will be the loss of the West’s access to the straits of Hormuz, through which 30% of the world’s oil and gas flow. The economic impact of that will be almost incalculable.

Here we go—it’s about 8 minutes: