Polling, War, Nukes

Today Fox News ran an article about a new NYT poll that covers voter sentiment for the Midterms. It’s pretty ugly. You can read it here. Here are two key takeaways:

• 48% of registered voters would support a Democratic candidate if the midterm elections were held today, compared to just 43% for a Republican candidate.

• 47% of registered voters say[] they "strongly disapprove" of how he is handling his job as president.

Naturally, Americans are focused on domestic issues, for the most part. Guess what? That’s what I had been hoping to be focused on. Instead we get a steady diet of Trump trying to bully the rest of the world. Yeah, I get it—it was always going to be this way because our domestic troubles. To the extent that our domestic problems are tied into fiscal problems they can’t be separated from the debt and dollar problems that are key to international trade and economics. But that’s not what Trump is telling Americans—he’s telling us that he’s got a quick and easy solution for it all. And he’s doing and saying things that just turn so many Americans off on a personal level. Meanwhile, there’s the Congressional GOP. Oh, no.

The good news is actually the bad news. 80% of Republican voters support Trump. But, remember—only about a third of voters identify as Republican. When you lose independents you lose elections. It doesn’t matter that the great majority of a minority supported you.

Here’s something you can take to the bank. If Trump’s latest adventure against Iran ends up with body bags coming home it won’t matter what else happens between now and then—meaning, November 2026. That’s not what Americans elected Trump to do. As for that 5% gap in the first bulleted item, that’s a mountain to climb. And the 47% strong disapproval number? I’m here to tell ya that’s not gonna change—not the way things are going.

The smartest thing Trump could do at this point to pull this thing out would be to tell Jewish Nationalists: You don’t own me. LOL. Not gonna happen. But could Trump at least swallow his hubris and ‘just say no’ to war on Iran? The reporting still says he wants a guaranteed ‘decisive’ outcome. Nothing is guaranteed in war, so could that lead Trump to back out once again? Larry Wilkerson, talking to Rachel Blevins, (recommended) was saying today that ‘decisive’ is a military term of art. It means you’ve hit the enemy so hard they’re unable to respond. Most experts I listen to agree that we just aren’t in a position to deal a ‘decisive’ blow of that sort. The smart thing risk free decision would be to just call it off.

However, that consideration led Wilkerson to go on to speculate that Trump and/or Netanyahu might go nuclear in pursuit of that elusive ‘decisive’ victory. Wilkerson makes a somewhat plausible argument in that regard, since the longer Iran survives the less likely it becomes that Iran can ever be “dealt with” on terms that the Anglo-Zionist would find palatable. The best shot at regime change fell flat on its face, so would that not suggest going to nukes as the only way left?

I’m skeptical of the nuclear scenario for a number of reasons (and, yes, I’m aware of the earthquake in the Negev).

• How can any rational possibly believe that it’s possible to destroy every single launch site in Iran—given that they are so well concealed and protected? The only way to even begin to do that would be via a massive ballistic missile strike—not bullshit Tomahawk or other standoff attacks.

• Iran, like Russia, has taken steps that assure its ability to respond to a first nuclear strike. That means that failing destruction of every single longer range Iranian ballistic missile, Iran will be responding by going after the Dimona nuclear site—to render Israel uninhabitable. And that would be just for starters.

• In the unlikely event that Israel survived, it would be an international pariah.

• And speaking of pariahs, the biggest of all would be Trump. IMO, resorting to nukes—even via a proxy Israel—would guarantee a midterm loss that would lead to impeachment. I strongly suspect that impeachment would lead to conviction. And don’t kid yourself—Trump is aware of that dynamic.

That’s what I keep telling myself.

By the way, I just want to be clear that I have no hopes for much of anything positive would come of the GOP retaining control of Congress. It’s just that the culture warrior in me tells me that a Dem win would be even worse for the country. I’m offering no solutions for this mess.