Politics And Geopolitics
Let’s start with geopolitics.
The Chinese peace and reconciliation tour continues to bear fruit at the point of its main focus: the Middle East. Following the announced resumption of diplomatic relations between Iran and Saudi Arabia—an earthshaking event—the Saudis have invited Iran’s foreign minister to visit Riyadh, while arrangements for a major meeting are under way. Further, Iran has announced that it is has been, for the past two months, been engaging in talks aimed at normalizing relations with Bahrain. Bahrain hosts two US military bases.
Iran proposes locations to Saudi Arabia for ministerial talks
DUBAI (Reuters) -The Iranian government has proposed to Saudi Arabia three locations for a meeting at foreign minister level, Iran's foreign minister said on Sunday, citing the latest messages with Riyadh since the countries agreed to re-establish ties.
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Separately, an aide to Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi said that Saudi Arabia's King Salman bin Abdulaziz had invited Raisi to visit Riyadh in a letter welcoming the deal agreed on March 10 to restore ties within two months, after years of hostility.
Raisi "welcomed the invitation," Mohammad Jamshidi, political deputy at the president's office, said on Twitter without mentioning a timeframe.
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Amirabdollahian said Iran also hoped steps would be made to normalise its ties with Bahrain, a close Saudi ally that followed Riyadh in severing diplomatic ties with Iran in 2016.
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"An agreement was reached two months ago for Iranian and Bahraini technical delegations to visit the embassies of the two countries. We hope that some obstacles between Iran and Bahrain will be removed and we will take basic steps to reopen the embassies," Amirabdollahian said.
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Bahrain, together with other Gulf Arab states, welcomed the agreement between Riyadh and Tehran to restore relations.
One thing seems clear. The US presence in (and dominance over) the Persian Gulf is being inexorabley squeezed. That will have major consequences down the road.
So keep that in mind while we pivot to China, which is preparing for the major visit of Xi to Moscow. It’s all related, and it’s all aimed at US hegemony, as two editorials in the semi-official English language Global Times make clear. These editorials were discussed by Alexander Mercouris late yesterday. Here are the major points.
Following its reconciliation brokering success in the Middle East, China is using that success to position itself as a world peace broker, in marked contrast to the US. The US, naturally, has clumsily played into that narrative by rejecting out of hand China’s efforts to broker peace in Ukraine. The motives behind this Chinese initiative are not the issue. The point is that this narrative—China raising hopes for peace that are dashed aside by the US—will resonate throughout much of the world, even if Americans take little notice:
US rejecting calls for Ukraine ceasefire shows ulterior motive of fueling the fire of conflict
The editorial first discusses the US “throwing mud all over” Xi’s mission of peace to Moscow. It then goes on to highlight what is likely the main purpose behind the trip:
In contrast, Xi's upcoming visit to Russia, viewed as a trip of friendship, cooperation and peace, is expected to further promote China-Russia cooperation and contribute to global peace and development. Especially after China brokered a deal between Saudi Arabia and Iran recently, many observers raised expectations for whether China will play a crucial role in political settlement in the Ukraine crisis when Beijing has open communication channels with both countries.
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"The US looks at the world differently than Moscow and Beijing. For them, prosperity depends on hegemony, and all practical policy must support this fundamental goal. Therefore, the West's most important tool is pressure, and China and Russia's most significant tool is cooperation," Timofei Bordachev, Moscow-based Valdai Club program director, told the Global Times.
The China-Russia partnership is not directed against anyone else in the world - it is not an instrument of war, but the instrument of peace, Bordachev said.
China-Russia comprehensive strategic partnership of coordination for a new era is conducive to helping maintain the global security, stability and helping tackle pressing security and economic issues, which has great significance to the world. China-Russia relations - setting a good example for international relations - won't be kidnapped by the US-led West, experts said.
So, Russia and China are seeking to reassure the rest of the world that they are not seeking to dominate—their cooperation will lead to something different than American hegemony has produced. But that reassurance is the prelude to the clear message that Russia and China will “cooperate” to resist “pressure” from the West. That word “pressure” leads to the heart of the second editorial:
The editorial first speaks of the example set by China-Russia cooperation, while not forming a bloc. But then it announces a change:
In recent years, one expression has been commonly used when it comes to China-Russia relations: non-alliance, non-confrontation and non-targeting of any third party. Now, another sentence has been added: It does not tolerate any third party's interference or coercion. These sentences are strong in their specificity. The new type of major-country relations between China and Russia has provided enlightenment to the world, in stark contrast to the behavior of some countries that are keen on creating various "small circles," forming cliques and engaging in bloc politics.
“Pressure” and “coercion” certainly point toward similar phenomena. Military threats or actions certainly constitute “coercion” or “pressure”. How about even the threat of sanctions? I believe the answer to that is: Yes, sanctions—or even the threat of sanctions—constitute “pressure” and “coercion”. Now Russia and China are saying that that will not be tolerated. That’s a very strong and specific statement—just as the editorial says it is. This talk is all about the US drive to maintain global hegemony, and Xi makes no bones about that:
President Xi's upcoming visit will also be a tour of peace. ...
However, it must be said that China is not the cause of the Ukrainian crisis, nor a party to it. It is the US and Western countries that have got themselves deeply involved in the crisis. The key to solving the Ukraine crisis is not in China's hands, but in those of the US and Western countries. If they continue to stir up trouble instead of cooperating, it will be unlikely that any efforts to bring about peace and promote talks will be effective.
Is it any wonder, then, that M. K. Bhadrakumar should say:
The Anglo-Saxon clique is watching with dismay the talks in Moscow tomorrow. To be sure, Moscow and Beijing have decided to stand together to bury the US hegemony.
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It has dawned on the American mind that Russia cannot be defeated in Ukraine. There is a chicken-and-egg situation facing NATO, according to a report in Politico. Massive investments are needed to catch up with Russia’s defence industry but Europe’s ailing economies have other critical priorities of survival and battling mounting social unrest.
The notions of defeating Russia in a proxy war in conditions of “sanctions from hell” have turned out to be delusional. It is the US banks that are collapsing, it is European economies that are threatened by stagnation.
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Unsurprisingly, Biden is paranoid about China’s push to mediate between Moscow and Kiev. The point is, he and Zelensky are locked in a deathly embrace — the corruption scam involving the activities of Hunter Biden in Kiev is hanging over the father’s political career like the Damocles’ sword, while on the other hand, Zelensky is also fighting for political survival and is increasingly daring to act on his own accord.
Turning to politics, I want to highly recommend Andrea Widburg’s article today:
The specifics that Widburg outlines won’t be news to readers, but the presentation or cataloging of events from the rise of the Tea Party to Trump’s entry into politics to the present is quite powerful. To be more specific, its the listing of the nefarious actions taken by the Dems in response over these years that is so powerful—sample paragraph:
Democrats use COVID to shut down the economy, close schools, censor speech, and institute mail-in balloting that, in many states, was illegal according to their own constitutions. Most significantly, they use the self-inflicted death of a felon with major heart disease who’d taken fatal levels of illegal drugs as an excuse to launch the BLM revolution. And it was a revolution, designed to overthrow the government through hysterical racial division and attacks on America’s infrastructure: cities burned, and activists targeted the White House, law enforcement, and the federal judiciary.
Now, Widburg writes, with Dem plans to target 1000 more J6 related persons as well as to arrest Trump …
Democrats have demanded the de-incarceration of violent criminals, defunded the police, refused to arrest or charge the BLM and Antifa activists who caused billions of dollars of damage and dozens of deaths, stopped enforcing our border laws, and given a pass to everyone from Hillary Clinton to the Biden family for corruption and national security violations. Meanwhile, they’re suddenly all about “law and order” when it comes to entrapping and destroying the common people who, by exercising their First Amendment rights, stand between Democrats and total political power.
This is creating a dangerously volatile situation that Democrats only think they can control. … the Democrats have effectively closed a safety valve available only in free societies. Now, they’re making it plain that they intend to increase the pressure while still keeping the valve closed.
Sound bad? Ed Dowd, talking to Steve Bannon (h/t TGP) says it will get worse. Before your read my transcript/summary, understand that he’s saying what Danielle DiMartino Booth has been shouting from the rooftops, so to speak, citing the same information Dowd is talking about. What we’re seeing is deflation. Credit is seriously contracting. The good news? Well if we’re lucky that will happen in the long terms—how long we don’t know: Globalization, Neo-Liberalism, Neo-Connism, those will pass. Dowd and others have been predicting this for some time, and there are more than a few who claim that this is the plan.
Ed Dowd: Financial Meltdown Of Economy
Dowd: Back in November our study of the economy showed a really deep recession coming in Q1 or Q2. So here we are. The bad thing that happened in November is the money supply (M2) year-over-year growth went negative for the first time since 1930 (the Great Depression). Let me say that again, 1930. This is the fifth time it happened and the previous four times since 1868, have been associated with financial panics. So, M2 is basically money and money is credit. So credit is contracting and here we are.
Bannon interjects on the "bailout" and how absurd the SVB balance sheet was even compared to past financial crises--"a country club with a hedge fund attached."
Dowd: They're gonna try to put their finger in the dyke. They'll effectively nationalize the banks [with guarantees]. They'll consolidate the banks into six banks. Whether or not that was the plan, that's what's gonna happen. But that won't stop what's coming. It may delay it, but by the end of this financial assets will be a lot lower, there'll be a global sovereign debt default somewhere [along the line].
We’re watching Japan. We're worried about Japan. We’re worried about what's going on in China. So this is going to spread around the globe. Quite frankly this is beyond anyone’s control, including the FED and the US Treasury. The release valve for all this debt is going to be a currency issue and a global sovereign debt default. So currency wars are coming. There’ll be debasing of currencies which will lead to kinetic war. Look, I don’t want to be a doomsdayer but this is beyond everyone’s control. We’re at the end and it’s imploding on itself. Once money supply goes down, growth year over year goes negative, IT'S OVER.
Bannon: This is like the Great Depression. The Neo-Liberal, Neo-Con world order is collapsing in front of us--you believe that? Will we have to build a new system out of the ashes of the old?
Dowd: Yeah. You won't see it reported on TV, but it's gonna happen slowly over time. We're looking at the end of globalization--obviously. Peak globalization was a while ago. Now we're gonna go to decentralization--that's just the nature of how these things work. We're gonna hafta figure out a way to get together as a country. There's gonna be kinetic wars--I don't see any way around it. It's coming unless we fix this problem.
Bannon: There's a war now in Ukraine--we're financing it. Without our money the war would end tomorrow.
Dowd: The war in Ukraine is kinetic, but the kinetic war I'm talking about is when US citizens start fighting. I don't wanna see that, but I don't see how we get around it.
So here’s a question for deep thinkers. Think back to what we started with. Is the rush to cooperation and coordination that we’re seeing outside the collective West, the rush to construct an alternative monetary system, a transport network, etc.—is this because Putin and Xi and others see the end of the Neo-Liberal West, the end of Neo-Connism and all its works, its collapse as a dominant system, and the Russia and China preparing for it as best they can?
Interesting times.
The incredible damage that these neocon tyros have done to this country cannot be overstated, the evidence continues to build on a daily basis. Who’d have suggested a rapprochement between the Saudis and the Iranians? China and Russia look like the champions of peace while the US displays all the signs of a duplicitous and untrustworthy actor on the world stage with “sound and fury, signifying nothing”. Every move our elites make only serves to make a bad situation worse. Rather than reflecting on how their plans have consistently run amuck, they double down on stupid and continue to push a policy of endlessly reckless provocation driving the world closer and closer to WW lll.
Meanwhile on the domestic front the same policy of endless provocation has created one of the most volatile social situations since the civil war! Unceasing attacks on personal freedom will do nothing to diffuse the situation and couple that with a monetary policy that has the country teetering on the edge of a financial abyss not seen since the 1930’s, seems to almost guarantee a messy and undesirable outcome. Their response? “Hey, let’s arrest DJT on some warmed over BS charge, that’ll show the peasants that we mean business!”
Brilliant! Wasn’t it Einstein who said that at one time he thought that only time and space were infinite, but upon further reflection he felt inclined to add stupidity to the list.
As Andrea pointed out in her column today, the Dems are foolish enough to think that they can maintain control over this situation as it reaches critical mass. The pressure cooker analogy was also apt, because the stress that is building to higher level with every passing day has got to find some kind of relief, and soon.
Some good things are happening here too.
The reconciliation of Iran and Saudi Arabia is a good thing and makes nuclear war less likely. Maybe Iran can become a normal nation again.
We are entering a post NATO world. NATO was a defensive alliance through the Cold War but I don’t know what it’s purpose is now. It shouldn’t be an offensive alliance.
I don’t believe our banking system will collapse and I don’t believe it is as fragile as people believe. The risk from underwater securities is overstated. Banks have deposits too which become less burdensome - more profitable - as interest rates rise. Credit problems will be more challenging - these aren’t apparent yet but they will be.
Banks in Europe and Japan are much weaker than US banks. The Fed put in rigorous stress tests after the GFC, and most banks bolstered their capital levels. My impression is that the Europeans did not do so.
The post WWII system is coming to an end. The transition is rocky but there is a lot of opportunity once we get past this. The worst problems are dodgy elections and dysfunctional elites and that is what we must solve.