Political Roundup: US, Israel, Poland

But first a brief Russia - Ukraine update. I read a Ukrainian source today, and couldn’t re-find it. Basically it said, We’re on the defensive all along the front lines. Big Serge tweeted this, which supports that:

Big Serge @witte_sergei

Israel is about to invade Gaza and Ukraine is being forced into a full-spectrum strategic defense after wasting their summer counter. Get your popcorn ready.

12:17 PM · Oct 14, 2023

Now …

Why is the Zhou admin so desperate to prevent a war? Because this would not be a short, inconsequential affair. It would affect America and the collective West. American political funding is dominated by Jewish Americans. Totally. As is foreign policy in anything that touches Israel. Jake Sullivan? If he doesn’t toe the pro-Israel line he’s out on his ass. These are simple facts.

Did I say something I shouldn’t have said? Well, then I’ll let the JPost say it for me:

US Jews contribute half of all donations to the Democratic Party

Jewish donors give 25% of the Republican National Convention’s cash.

By JEREMY SHARON

SEPTEMBER 27, 2016 00:31

Updated: JANUARY 14, 2018

A new study argues that the large majority of American Jews have a deep-seated notion that being Jewish is inextricably bound to being liberal.

Now, the author argues that

“American Jews are more pro-choice than pro-Israel when voting.”

This does not mean to say they are not pro-Israel, but rather that the intensity of commitment to pro-freedom, liberal ideas is more intense than the commitment to Israel, he says, adding that according to polling data, the overwhelming majority of US Jews do not base their vote on Israeli interests.

Troy also looked at what he describes as “the disproportionate frenzy surrounding the Jewish vote,” when bearing in mind that Jews comprise just 2 percent of the US electorate.

The reason for such intense scrutiny is the outsize contributions of Jewish donors to US political campaigns, with Jewish donors contributing a whopping 50% of funds received by the Democratic Party and 25% to the Republican Party, Troy says.

He also says the “megaphone effect” of the US’s Electoral College election system is particularly pronounced in some key swing states with large Jewish populations, such as Florida, Ohio, Pennsylvania and Michigan.

That would describe normal times, when Israel is not perceived to be under existential threat. On the other hand, even if in normal times most Jews go into the voting booth thinking about abortion rather than Israel, one thing unites American Jews: They don’t want to see about half of the world’s Jewish population slaughtered. At least that’s my belief. That means that if they perceive that threat to be real, they’ll be looking to vote for the party most committed to preventing a mass slaughter of Jews—it would not be good for the Jews, as the cant phrase would have it.

I was listening to Alexander Mercouris this afternoon. He cited a poll, left unnamed, but which coincided with other polling I’ve seen recently. Basically, according to the poll he cited, 53% of Americans are “sympathetic to Israel”, while something well over 30% are “sympathetic to Palestinians”. “Sympathetic to Israel” skews overwhelmingly Republican, while “sympathetic to Palestinians” skews overwhelmingly Dem. This is a real problem for Dems in a time like this, when Israel appears under an existential threat. My guess is that the huge number of Dems who are “sympathetic to Palestinians” represents a large percentage of the Dem base—people who get out and vote in the primaries and increasingly elect the Loony Left to Congress, many of whom are anti-Israel, and exert policy pressure on the national Dem party. You can see the problem. Half the Dem money comes from Jews, but the base—which is heavily anti-Israel—provides the key votes. If the Dem party offends their donors they lose the elections, but if they offend the base they lose the elections.

If there’s a Big War in the Middle East, the consequences of which extend into 2024, and which might well feature Hezbollah missiles raining down on Tel Aviv, Jewish donors may stop thinking about abortion for a while and instead start considering giving money to the party that appears most opposed to the slaughter of Jews. That would be the Republicans, so there might be some nose-holding involved, but blood is thicker than water.

So the Neocons really need this war not to happen. If it happens, they know it’ll be a disaster and that they’ll be blamed for it, and the face of US foreign policy could change dramatically. That’s why they’ll do anything to prevent this war. They’ll pay Egypt millions to set up a tent city in Sinai. They’ll even ride Zhou’s railroad from African across the Indian Ocean all the way to China and kiss Xi’s bum, if he’ll just exercise some influence on Iran to restrain Hezbollah.

Will they succeed? Only time will tell.

While we’re on the subject, a great video, with a h/t to commenter Cassander:

About those Polish elections—the most consequential in Europe so far this year. We’re still working off exit polling. You may recall that the exit polling in Slovakia was wildly inaccurate—in the liberal direction. My sense is that the exit polling in Poland is probably much more accurate, although that could change as the real totals come in. Right now the Left is loudly proclaiming victory, even though—as expected—the currently ruling Law and Justice Party (PiS) easily tops the polls. The claim of victory comes from the claim that the Left has a path to forming a coalition government. This will give you an idea of how that works. Tusk’s party is Civic Coalition (KO):

• Donald Tusk, the former Polish prime minister and European Council president, claimed victory in Poland’s parliamentary election on Sunday, making the announcement just minutes after the polls closed, based on the results of an exit poll.

• The exit poll showed Law and Justice (PiS) got 36.8% of the vote, Civic Coalition (KO) 31.6%, Third Way 13% and The Left (Lewica) 8.6%.

• If confirmed, the result would mean that Civic Coalition, Third Way and The Left would have a majority in Poland’s parliament.

• It appears that turnout hit a historic high.

• Many Poles waited in long lines to vote. Past 1am local time there were still people voting in one polling station in Wrocław.

• “We won democracy, we won freedom, we won our free beloved Poland … This day will be remembered in history as a bright day, the rebirth of Poland,” Tusk told supporters.

• Jarosław Kaczyński, the PiS chair, said his party’s result was a big success but admitted “we don’t know” whether the party had a path to government. “Days of fight and tension await us,” he said.

• European politicians who have been critical of Law and Justice’s policies celebrated the exit poll results, with experts saying that a Tusk victory would give Warsaw a much bigger voice on the European stage.

• Another exit poll is expected to be published in the early morning hours, but the final outcome may only be available well into the day.

Obviously, if the numbers above hold true, Third Way will be the king maker. But, by its very nature, it could join either of the major parties:

The name Third Way is primarily an indication of building an alternative to both the United Right, which is national conservative, and the Civic Coalition, which is a big tent, catch-all party.

Third Way has tried to steer clear of the big social issues in abortion that the major parties are associated with: abortion and homosexuality. On the other hand,

The Third Way bloc is mostly dominated by conservative, Christian democratic, and moderate liberal politicians. The coalition's goal is to convince former Law and Justice voters to switch to the opposition by creating a centrist or moderate conservative platform on the opposition.^[15][16] Per the manifesto of the Third Way, the coalition wants to increase earnings in the budgetary sphere, reform the school system, implement a climate policy based on renewable energy, and simplify the tax system. The alliance calls for a referendum on the admissibility of abortion, leaving its members freedom in social matters; most of its members are more than less conservative on social issues.

I don’t know enough to predict what will happen.

The interesting question is how this will affect Poland’s dedication to war on Russia. With both NATO and the EU in increasing disarray it’s hard to see any new Polish coalition continuing the current course.