People Wanted To Know: What Does Doug Macgregor Make Of The New Middle East War?
Now we get the answer—if only partial. It appears to me that Macgregor is raising more questions than providing answers. That’s understandable. The fog of war extends here to a fog surrounding intel. For example, there’s a lot of internet chatter centering on Neocon conspiracies to spark a more or less global conflagration to cover for the defeat in Ukraine—variations on that theme. People like Pepe Escobar and Simplicius the Thinker—and many more—discuss these ideas at length in their recent writings. I still don’t buy it. I just can’t imagine the number of people in Israel who would have to keep silent while Jews are being killed to allow Netanyahu to pull of a kind of FDR-knew-about-Pearl-Harbor event. I’m just not buying that. Maybe I’m wrong, but that’s where I’m at.
One factoid that is used in some of these accounts or theories is that Israel supported Hamas in its early days—could even be said to have founded Hamas, as a counter to the PLO. This is fact, but I still don’t see that extending to the present day or to the extent of allowing the slaughter of hundreds of Jews. You can read more about the origins of Hamas at the link, but here’s the most directly relevant part:
When Israel occupied the Palestinian territories in 1967, the Muslim Brotherhood members did not take active part in the resistance, preferring to focus on social-religious reform and on restoring Islamic values.[150] This outlook changed in the early 1980s and Islamic organizations became more involved in Palestinian politics.[151] The driving force behind this transformation was Ahmed Yassin, a Palestinian refugee from Al-Jura.[151] Of humble origins and quadriplegic,[151] he persevered to become one of the Muslim Brotherhood's leaders in Gaza. His charisma and conviction brought him a loyal group of followers, who he, as a quadriplegic, depended on for everything—from feeding him, to transporting him to and from events, and to communicate his strategy to the public.[152]
In 1973, Yassin founded the social-religious charity al-Mujama al-Islamiya ("Islamic center") in Gaza as an offshoot to the Muslim Brotherhood.[153][154] The Israeli authorities encouraged Yassin's charity to expand as they saw it as a useful counterbalance to the secular Palestine Liberation Organization.[136][155][156][157] Yitzhak Segev, who was the Israeli military governor of Gaza at the time, recalled that they even funded his charity: "The Israeli government gave me a budget, and the military government gives to the mosques".[158] Israel's religious affairs official in Gaza, Avner Cohen, later regretfully concluded that Hamas was created by Israel. He claimed to have warned his superiors not to back the Islamists. Israel's early support to Hamas came from its desire to alienate its secular rival, the Palestine Liberation Organization.[159]
Well, perhaps that’s a warning to politicians about allowing intel agencies to run policy. In any event, Macgregor steers clear of all this and focuses pretty narrowly on military considerations. He does, however, suggest and explanation that I’ve been repeating as possible—that Israeli intel officials thought they had good sources in Hamas and talked themselves into “a state of wishful thinking”—that their sources gave them better intel than surveillance:
Douglas Macgregor
@DougAMacgregor
The Israeli losses are predicted to exceed 1,000 dead.
It is inconceivable that the IDF had NO ready forces positioned in the South or the North to deal with potential violence on the anniversary of 1973.
At the same time, the Arabs did what they never do. They shut up.
In this sense, it’s reminiscent of two conditions.
First, Custer and his column were annihilated because the hostile tribes did something they had never done:
They united and stood their ground. Normally, they were divided and fled as soon as Army Regulars showed up.
He rushed in thinking that if he did not, the hostiles would fleet. It’s also reminiscent of the Bulge.
We talked ourselves into a state of wishful thinking and the Germans surprised us.
For Israel, however, this is deadly serious. If Hezbollah sits this out, the IDF will systematically crush Gaza. However, serious attacks from Southern Lebanon will stretch the IDF ground force to the limit.
It may be that anger and disgust across the Muslim World with the destruction of Gaza and its people eventually provokes a larger war that could involve Iran, even Turkey.
Egypt will be unable to sit it out. Jordan may fall apart under the pressure of internal unrest. In short, the world could change dramatically.
11:38 AM · Oct 9, 2023
As far as events on the ground go, Hezbollah has remained remarkably quiet thus far. That could change when Israel launches its ground offensive into Gaza, said to be scheduled for tonight. One supposition is that Hezbollah will wait to take action—if it does get involved—until a point when Israeli forces are bogged down in urban fighting. Israel is said to have about 100K troops near Gaza, and it’s difficult to imagine that the IDF would send reserves into that situation, so its best prepared troops may be in the south. Israel has long avoided trying to enter the built up areas of Gaza, for good reason, and in the meantime Hamas has long been preparing for such an assault. It won’t be pretty—probably not for either side. That would be my guess. Based on the Hamas offensive so far, it seems clear that they’ve received plenty of advice. Is Israel ready for a type of warfare that it hasn’t engaged in so far?
Israel claims that it’s war is with Hamas—which is not coextensive with all inhabitants of Gaza. But public statements and the seemingly indiscriminate nature of the Israeli air assault suggest that the war is actually with Gaza and Arabs:
Douglas Macgregor reposted
Our Country Our Choice
@OCOCReport
JUST IN: Israel begins massive bombardment of Gaza.
Israeli Defense Minister: "There will be no electricity, no food no fuel. We are fighting human animals and we will act accordingly."
What are your thought on the current conflict?"
As part of the war on “human animals” …
JUST IN: New report emerges that Israel just destroyed Saint Porphyrius Orthodox Church in Gaza. At 1,616 years old, it is the third oldest church in the world.
A big question is how this will play out politically in the US. The people who think they represent the smart money are predicting that we will see a surge of “I support Israel!”, replacing “Slava Ukraini!”. That will surely happen, to this extent—Ukraine looks to be the big loser. I’m having a hard time seeing Zhou’s One and Done $100B Ukraine extravaganza making it through Congress. It’ll simply be too easy for GOPers to say, ‘Hey, we’re saving the money for Israel.’
On the one hand, we’re already seeing fractures along lines that are somewhat new in American politics. For example, a Trump aide accused Gretchen Whitmer (D governor of Michigan) of offering only tepid support for Michigan. Well, Whitmer relies heavily on Arab and Black votes. Arab votes are taking on greater importance in the US and Blacks are increasingly disenchanted with foreign aid. I can only guess, but I suspect many Asian voters will fall somewhere in that camp—if it can be called a camp. Let’s say, somewhere along that trajectory.
On the other hand, GOPers are, for now, falling all over themselves in their enthusiasm for war in the Middle East. This will be a test for how strong recent Republican anti-war sentiment really is, and how strong Evangelical support for Israel is in our current tumultuous social and political state. Expect the unexpected? Will Dems profit from anti-war sentiment?
We shall see.
I think it entirely possible that Israeli intelligence agencies knew about the coming attack and kept mum, but not to help Netanyahu but, rather, to discredit him. Did this happen? I don't know, but if it did, the Israeli people have much bigger problems than Hamas- they have literal traitors inside the perimeter.
After reading your post I went over to CFP and this was at the top of the page: https://greekcitytimes.com/2023/10/10/orthodox-church-gaza-not-bombed/?amp
What is the truth? Who can say at this point.
The battle for sympathy and pointing fingers in the media has begun (as anticipated) and will continue. Next up will be video and photos coming out of Gaza of the dead and wounded innocents, many of whom were likely parading yesterday in celebration of the attack on Israel. There will be two battles fought. One, the actual combat and taking of territory and lives. Second, the propaganda battle to gain sympathy with the goal of stopping the destruction of Gaza and Hamas. As this drags out the propaganda battle will likely go against the Israelis if the IDF proceeds as expected to win the physical battle in Gaza.