Patriots To Ukraine: What's The Strategy?
One of the first items I took note of this morning was this tweet regarding the planned stationing of German Patriots near the Polish - Ukraine border. As you’ll see, the commenter is suggesting that this is a trap for plunging NATO and Russia into a hot WW3 (I think the map is Romanian—the city name is Warszawa):
I’m skeptical of that theory. Judging from the US reaction to the Ukrainian missile landing in Poland, I don’t think the US is eager for WW3. If that’s what the US really wants they can start it any time they want.
Later, I read an article at Zerohedge that cited “multiple anonymous US defense officials” to the effect that the US is planning to send Patriot systems to Ukraine:
"The Biden administration is finalizing plans to send the Patriot missile defense system to Ukraine that could be announced as soon as this week, according to two US officials and a senior administration official," CNN writes. "The three officials told CNN that approval is expected."
…
It's likely to take some time to deploy the Patriots, given Ukrainians are expected to be trained on operating the sophisticated systems at the US Army base in Grafenwoehr, Germany, per officials cited by CNN. In the meantime Moscow is likely to react fiercely to the news, which could result in more intense and escalatory airstrikes on Ukrainian cities, and command and control bases. Washington, for its part will likely emphasize the purely "defensive" nature of the Patriot systems.
What to make of this? I doubt that the provision of Patriot systems to Ukraine—if and when it does happen—will in fact be any sort of game changer. Many commentators believe that Patriot is overhyped and not up to the challenge of modern warfare.
I have a theory—it’s speculative, so take it FWIW.
I wonder whether this is a ploy to try to sucker Russia into accelerating its methodical “grinding down” operation into a full frontal assault on strongly fortified positions—in order to beat the deployment of the latest Western Wunderwaffe? The idea is that Russia would then suffer heavy casualties, leading to a loss of public support for Putin.
Kim Dotcom
@KimDotcom
Ukraine now gets US Patriot missiles that cost the US taxpayer $3 million per missile to shoot down $30,000 Russian drones. The Russians can fire 100 drones for each US Patriot missile. The Pentagon strategists call this ‘unbalancing Russia’.
Highly informative:
https://www.moonofalabama.org/2022/12/us-to-send-more-wunderwaffen-to-ukraine.html#more
The Patriot battery to be deployed to Ukraine is likely one of those that the U.S. currently has in Poland. A German Patriot unit will be deployed to replace it.
The phased array radar that Patriot systems use are good but they are also a weakness. They are visible from satellites with Synthetic Aperture Radar. As researchers have found some years ago:
The most modern missiles Patriot system use have a maximum reach of some 60 kilometer (37 miles). One battery can thus cover a bubble with a 120 kilometer diameter. It may be good for Kiev or Odessa but is nothing that will solve the general military problem Ukraine has.
The Russian forces are superior in technology, personnel and fire power. There is no chance, and never has been, for Ukraine to win that match. No Wunderwaffen, British marines with sea drones or U.S. Patriot systems, will change those basic facts.