Odds And Ends: Somebody Struck A Militia Base In Iraq

We’ll start with an analytical piece in Haaretz (behind a subscription wall):

Israel's Muted Strike on Isfahan Shows Netanyahu Has No Strategy on Iran, as Well as Gaza

Israel's lackluster strike on Isfahan is at most a temporary measure, a place-holder. And it was ordered by Netanyahu, who made a career out of talking up the Iranian threat but when the moment of truth came, he had nothing to say or offer

There's something almost coy about the Israeli government's silence Friday morning after the strike on an Iranian air base near Isfahan that American officials say was carried out by Israel. It's almost as if someone in Jerusalem hoped that the events of the past 19 days could be rolled back – as if the fact that Iran and Israel have been in direct conflict could be conveniently forgotten and we could all go back to the shadow proxy war.

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I suppose the counter argument would be that Netanyahu does have a strategy on Iran, but that strategy (to draw the US into a war on Iran) is totally dependent on the American Empire’s willingness to be drawn into a war at any given time. The problem is that the American Empire is embroiled in conflicts and confrontations around the world and has all sorts of political and military problems. The wisdom of the American decision to refrain from war with Iran—or even a major strike at Iran—is shown by Iran’s penetration of the best missile defense we could offer Israel. The US realizes that, for Iran’s potent missile forces, the Middle East has become a target rich environment. Many US bases across the region have very little in the way of defenses against such attacks. Even the best defended US assets in the region—bases like Al Udeid, aircraft carriers—have been shown by Iran to be vulnerable to potentially devastating attacks.

The difficulty for Israel is that they have been forced to surrender deterrent dominance in a way that they never thought they would ever need to do. Israel’s piddly response to Iran’s stunning demonstration of its offensive missile capabilities—probably drones launched by Israeli/US supported groups within Iran itself, a vast country—revealed for all the world to see (if there was any doubt before) the nature of the US - Israeli relationship. For all the massive influence of the Israel Lobby over the US body politic, when push comes to shove the US has to take its own security interests into account and Israel has to accept that accounting.

With that in mind Megatron reports:

Megatron @Megatron_ron

 THE PREVIOUS NIGHT, THE US STRUCK IRAQ

Reports now indicate that the U.S. airstrike struck the headquarters of the armored units of the Popular Mobilization Forces in Babylon.

The jets took off from a base in Jordan and entered Iraq through Jordanian airspace.

This is a direct declaration of war from Jordan on Iraq.

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12:42 AM · Apr 20, 2024

Today's attack on the base in Iraq by the US and Israel is to "save face" after the debacle two days ago of the Israeli attempt to attack Iran. The US has officially denied being behind this attack, but officially everyone knows it's a lie.

Satellite images show no damage in places where some pro-Israel accounts claimed targets were hit. This has also been acknowledged by some mainstream media such as CNN and the Guardian.

11:12 AM · Apr 20, 2024

I suspect that Megatron is correct in characterizing this as a “face saving” measure. How much face is actually saved remains to be seen, since there are real risks involved. Iran had previously exerted influence on militia groups based in Iraq to halt attacks on US assets in their areas of interest. Two considerations: 1) The restraint could come to an end with a resumption of attacks on US bases, calibrated for the new circumstances in the region; 2) Jordan’s role—assuming this account is correct—could also make Jordan a target. That would raise more problems for the long run.

More on that strike:

OSINTdefender @sentdefender

Footage has been released showing the Scale of the Damage to the Kalsu Base of the Popular Mobilization Force (PMF) in the Babylon Governorate of Eastern Iraq, after last night’s explosions caused by what is claimed to have been several Missile Strikes; it is Difficult to tell if the Craters that seen are from Missile Impacts or the Munitions Cook-Off that can be seen in several Video, though I would lean towards the Cook-Off.

Watch again

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11:50 PM · Apr 19, 2024

In other words, although earlier reports suggested that a meeting was targeted, the photos suggest that a weapons storage site was the target.

Readers may be aware that the Iranian air force has been training for the arrival of Russian Su-35 air superiority fighters, using Yak 130 advanced trainers for that purpose (the Yak 130 can also fill a light attack role). The latest word is that the Su-35s are in the mail, so to speak—the airmail:

War Watch @WarWatchs

Iran will receive the first batch of Russian Sukhoi Su-35 Air superiority fighters next week.

4:17 AM · Apr 20, 2024

This should represent a massive upgrade for the Iranian air force. You can read about the plane, as well as its use by Russia in Syria, at the link.

I’d like to highly recommend an Ania K youtube interview with Scott Ritter. It’s an hour long, but Scott explains very clearly the dynamics of the current Middle East situation in terms of escalation/deterrence dominance.

SCOTT RITTER; CONFLICT BETWEEN ISRAEL AND IRAN, WHAT IS IT REALLY ABOUT?

BTW, he also mentions that Israel is now admitting that twice the number of Iranian missiles made it through the US “missile shield” than was previously admitted: 18. I’m not sure how that fits in with other accounts—including in Maariv—admitting that the 99% claimed shootdown rate of Iranian missiles/drones was a figment of propaganda and that the number should have been 84%. Perhaps the numbers will be revised further.

Scott also discusses the Russian use in Ukraine of a new (based on an older design) air launched cruise missile, the Kh-69. This weapon, with reduced radar signature, has apparently been used in the latest electric war campaign to great effect. Of note, it can be launched from the Su-35s that have been provided to Iran. That would not present a threat to Israel, since the range is 400km, but that range would certainly cover the entire Persian Gulf and other offshore areas.