New Year In The Middle East Starts With A Bang

A top Hamas official has been assassinated in Beirut, reportedly by a drone strike and reportedly by Israel. All reporting assumes that that Israel is responsible. On the other hand, although Israel has maintained and continues to maintain that Hamas leadership will be targeted, there has been no word from Israel claiming responsibility. Hezbollah is denouncing all assassinations in Lebanon.

-- GEROMAN -- time will tell -- @GeromanAT

Israel denies responsibility for the attack in Beirut

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@AJABreaking

11:29 AM · Jan 2, 2024

@Megatron_ron:

Confirmed:

Saleh al-Aaruri was assassinated by an israeli drone strike in Beirut, Lebanon.

The situation in Lebanon and Israel is boiling at the highest level

Al Jazeera correspondent: "Things are headed for a major escalation in #Lebanon."

Israeli media: "Hezbollah informs international bodies that it will respond to the assassination of leader Saleh Al-Arouri"

Channel 12 [Israel]: "The ball is now in Nasrallah's court: either a comprehensive war with #Israel or containing the assassination."

Hezbollah Secretary General Hassan Nasrallah will have a speech that was planned for tomorrow.

Hezbollah's response is expected. Israel has raised the threat level on its northern border.

Now it is clear why the Israeli army began to withdraw from Gaza. They are heading to the border with Lebanon.

Phase 2 that I have announced - total war with Hezbollah - is very close to happen. Although I think it is still too early, Israel will want to gamble.

Lebanon's Prime Minister:

"Killing of Hamas leader Saleh al-Arouri is a 'new Israeli crime' that aims to pull Lebanon into a new phase of confrontation"

Was this anticipated strike the reason for the Israeli pullout from Gaza? To clear the deck for an expected major attack by Hezbollah? Was this also the reason behind the withdrawal of the USS Gerald Ford and its supporting escorts from the Mediterranean back to Norfolk—regular rotation, known lack of preparedness (crew complement below needed levels), foreseeable danger? One must presume that the US was given a heads up by the Israelis. If the Ford was withdrawn for that reason, what does that say about the utility of carrier battle groups? How does that affect US bases in the region, and US participation in any war with Hezbollah? Lots of moving parts.

Hezbollah has, in the past, threatened an “unprecedented response” to assassinations of any allied groups, specifically including Hamas. I assume that isn’t just bluster, and I’m quite sure that the Israelis share that assumption. I think that Megatron_ron is correct, that Israel is consciously gambling here, because they know their back is against a wall. Israeli Defense Minister Galant has stated: “We cannot live in the Middle East without a clear victory in Gaza.” But Gaza is not a war in isolation—it’s only one front in what has become a regional war.

On the other hand, I also assume that Hezbollah has long since gamed all of this out, and has seen this coming for a long time. Listening to Judge Nap and Alastair Crooke this morning before the news came in:

We are almost certainly moving towards conflict in the north with Hezbollah. Every day it gets more and more serious, and I think in the next few weeks we--there was the the killing of a very senior Iranian General just before Christmas, and then attacks going on against Iran and Hezbollah daily. Clearly, Israel is trying to provoke the United States into giving a green light now for an attack on Hezbollah.

We’ll probably find out some of the answers soon enough. Hezbollah may not want to move yet. The overall war against Israel seems to be proceeding well, from their standpoint. The blockade of the Red Sea (and potentially all sea routes to Israel) has been a major victory, and its effects will only expand with time. Netnayahu has said that Israel’s war in Gaza could drag on for as much as two years. As Alastair Crooke said this morning—that’s a quagmire. And not just for Israel. A one or two year regional war in the Middle East pitting the US (in an election year) and Israel against the entire region—backed by Russia and China—could have nightmarish consequences for the US.

Netanyahu had been advised by a senior general, General Brik, and [Brik] told [Netanyahu] at the beginning, 'You're walking into a quagmire in Gaza, trying to attack Hamas.' [Brik] was a very respected general and Netanyahu spoke to him one on one several times, and [Brik] said, 'It's going to be a disaster,' and now we know it is a disaster, because all the other generals are now saying, 'We're losing so many men there and we don't see either Hamas collapsing--General Eiland said this--we don't see them actually collapsing, we don't see them losing control over the ground in Gaza.' And now we hear that the Southern Command of the Israeli forces is saying, 'Oh no, this war is going to be one to two years!' Oh! That's what I mean by quagmire! Two years of Hamas in Gaza and what is its impact going to be on the United States and on the West?

Here, from the NYT, is the Eiland quote:

Skepticism Grows Over Israel’s Ability to Dismantle Hamas

Israel has vowed time and again to eliminate the group responsible for the brutal Oct. 7 attack, but critics increasingly see that goal as unrealistic or even impossible.

Dec. 27, 2023

Giora Eiland, a retired major general and former head of Israel’s National Security Council, said Hamas had demonstrated the ability to quickly replace commanders who are killed with others equally capable and equally devoted.

“From a professional point of view, I must give credit to their resilience,” he said. “I cannot see any signs of collapse of the military abilities of Hamas nor in their political strength to continue to lead Gaza.”

So, from that standpoint, opening a second front in Lebananon is looking like a desperate throw of the dice by Netanyahu. Israel couldn’t handle Hezbollah in 2006, they couldn’t handle Hamas in 2014, so now Netanyahu will try both at the same time? Will the US allow itself to be dragged in? But, again—will Hezbollah respond to this desperation by doing what Netanyahu wants, or continue to bide its time?

Crooke, by the way, goes on to maintain that the logic of desperation, of trying to fight your way out of a corner, usually leads to mistakes—and this applies to the US, as well as to Israel. Remember how the Neocons stumbled into all this? It was going to be, first regime change in Moscow—a few weeks, maybe—then our famous pivot to humble Xi. None of that worked, and now the US is being dragged into Gaza, into Lebanon, into the Red Sea and Persian Gulf, our illegal bases in Iraq and Syria are under regular attack. Worse, if possible, the standing of the West has utterly collapsed, thanks to the Neocon embrace of open genocide—the US can barely induce Seychelles to join its effort to break the Red Sea blockade. Meanwhile, Americans have a deeply divided country facing an election and trying to understand what has become of America. If the past teaches us anything about the future, it is that we can expect new disasters in 2024. Perhaps beginning in southern Lebanon.

For a taste of repercussions in the US this year, we turn to Michael Maloof, ex-senior security policy analyst in the Office of the Secretary of Defense:

"No Stomach" In US To Keep Funding Ukraine As 'War Is Over': Ex-Pentagon Official

… in a fresh interview with Russian media, wherein he also emphasized that the only way out for Kiev is through negotiations based on the current dire realities of the battlefield, which has seen setback after setback for Ukraine forces.

But there's no stomach right now any longer to fund the Ukrainians.

Frankly, the people see that the war is over. Basically, the [Ukrainian] counteroffensive failed, and there's no way that they can pick it back up and turn things around, …

And looming heavily in the background is the unpredictability of other global flashpoints which threaten to stretch US forces and resources thin. Speaking of Israel's escalatory policies in Gaza, Maloof said, "I guess he [Benjamin Netanyahu] thinks he can go ahead and start raising all kinds of havoc not only with Iran, but also with Hezbollah up north. So are we going to help fund all of that?"

"I mean, that's the big question. And I don't think there's any stomach for that, considering that, you know, we are entering an election year," emphasized Maloof again.

Is Maloof alone in his views? I have no way of knowing, but I somehow doubt it.

Brace yourselves!