Neocon Grand Strategy: Where Do We Stand

I spent a fair amount of time listening to a video at The Duran today. It featured a long discussion among Alex Christoforou, Alex Mercouris, and Gonzalo Lira. They start out, naturally enough, with the fall of Boris Johnson and what that portends for the war with Russia and Davos’ hold over the EU. From there they move on to the barking mad speech that Mike Pompeo gave to the Hudson Institute on 6/24/22—more on that further down.

In the course of that discussion Christoforou sketched out his view of the Neocon Grand Strategy, which also features in the Pompeo speech. The short version is that the US needs to dominate world energy markets and prevent an alliance between Russia and China. That much we probably had figured out by now, but Christoforou outlines where he thinks things are headed, now that the initial plan for Russian regime change through “shock and awe sanctions” has fallen flat on its face. I found his views compelling. Here’s my transcript of that presentation. For context, Christoforou is pushing back against Gonzalo Lira’s forecast of imminent war with China, which leads to Christoforou expounding his big picture of where things are headed:

I just want to say that for the Neocons to go along with the war against China through Taiwan, I still think they have to get through with Russia. And I think that that prevails, as far as foreign policy in the DC Establishment. I'm not saying they're not gonna poke at China, they're not gonna go up the sanctions escalator with China as well, but I still think that there's gonna be a lot of doubt in the collective West with regard to starting something up in China without getting through with Russia.

The Neocons want to go after China--yes. The Neocons want to go after Russia--yes. What I'm saying is that the people around the Neocons, who are not Neocons but are dealing with the Neocons on an every day basis—even Neo liberals, someone like Obama—they're going to say, 'Ya know what? I hear what you're saying, let's go after China now, BUT ... we can't go after China given how the state of things are with regard to Russia, and what's going on in Ukraine.' Even a Scholz, even a Macron--I think they're gonna have a VERY hard time to align themselves with the Neocon project with regard to China if they can't resolve Russia first.

And I think they're trying to resolve Russia. They wanted regime change--we all know that. And I think a lot of this is connected to a type of Thucydides trap. The Neocons definitely are seeing a rising hegemon in China with Russia and they're in that trap, saying, this is gonna be our rival, we seem them rising and we're either gonna work with them and accept a multi polar world, or we hafta fight them. And I think their strategy was, let's get regime change in Russia, let's fight the Russians, and then let's go after the Chinese.

So they tried the regime change, they tried the shock and awe. It did not work. And now I believe they're in panic mode. I'm starting to think that their strategy right now is: We hafta dismantle Russia. We hafta get regime change no matter what, and then we agree with you Neocons--we'll go after China. But in order to dismantle Russia, in order to get that regime change, now, given that the shock and awe sanctions have not worked, we hafta induce a recession. We hafta create a panic.

And why do I say that? Because everything in and around the G-7 right now is focusing around [Janet] Yellen and oil price caps and sanctioning energy and driving the cost of energy somehow DOWN. But everything they're doing is driving the cost of energy UP. I was reading an article from Citigroup where they said that they believe that if the recession continues and we move toward a depression, then the price of oil will get to around the $40 range by the end of 2022, 2023. And I think they're trying to balance out the midterm elections, trying to not get slaughtered so much come November, along with trying to induce a recession, because I think they believe, 'Ya know what? If we can get the price of oil down to $40 we're gonna dismantle Putin's war machine, and then we'll be able to get our big counteroffensive, we'll be able to take back the Donbass and Crimea and we'll be done with Russia, and then we can get at China.

What Christoforou is saying is simply this. Oil exports and the income they provide Russia is what funds the Russian military. So, say the Neocons, we need to find a way to cut Russia’s source of income. We can do that if we can get the price of oil down to around $40 (it’s currently a bit over $100). Now, follow this next part closely.

How can we reduce the price of oil in this drastic fashion? Janet Yellen has floated a plan to put a cap on the price of Russian oil. Problem: every energy analyst I’ve seen has said—Hey, that’s crazy! What an oil price “cap” will actually do is cause a massive spike in the price of oil, that will lead to a serious recession.

Ah, but what comes with that recession? That’s right—a sudden collapse in the price of oil. So, in other words, to get the price of oil all the way down to $40 the Neocons first have to drive the price up (via the goofy and unworkable “cap” on the price). The “cap” does in fact get the result desired, but in a backhanded sort of way. The price for that strategy is serious recesssion or even depression—but the Neocons think that price is OK for you and me to pay. It’s all for the Grand Strategy. They know that the “cap” will lead to recession, but they’re hiding the true impact from the American people.

Now, for some confirmation that this is their basic thinking we turn briefly to Mike Pompeo’s speech at the Hudson Institute. The guys at The Duran argued that Pompeo’s speech represents the views of the DC and Neocon foreign policy establishment. I believe they’re correct about that, but that the speech is part of Pompeo’s effort to position himself for a presidential run. Pompeo is, IMO, a dangerous nut. That’s a view I’ve held for years.

You can find a full transcript of the speech here:

Transcript of Pompeo Speech on Ukraine and a Global Alliance for Freedom Hudson Institute

Basically, Pompeo sees the US in a struggle to maintain global hegemony. The threat to that hegemony is an alliance between Russia and China but the solution to that threat is not to seek cooperation with one of the other of those two countries. There is not a hint of diplomacy in the entire speech—indeed, negotiations are explicitly rejected. In Pompeo’s view the solution is for the US to dominate both China and Russia countries through a network of puny second rate powers. Thus …

America and the nations of the world cannot continue the pretense that the war in Ukraine can end in a negotiated peace, which mollifies Russia. For such a peace cannot be negotiated with Vladimir Putin. Ukraine must win this war. It must win this war decisively …

and

We must prevent the formation of a Pan-Eurasian colossus incorporating Russia, but led by China. To do that, we have to strengthen NATO, and we see that nothing hinders Finland and Sweden’s entry into that organization.

Pompeo asserts, without argument, that Russia is intent upon gaining control over other, unspecified, countries and their energy resources.

Indeed, if Russia is allowed dominion over the Donbas and Ukraine’s coast, Putin will next seek control of the energy resources of other independent countries as well that were once part of this Soviet empire. Russia will become a juggernaut, dominating fossil fuels in addition to its present lead in supplying nuclear power plants to recipient nations.

Russia could become an energy “juggernaut”, he says, whereas Pompeo believes it’s the US that should “regain our energy dominance." And the road to US energy dominance is through war in Ukraine. He wants us to believe that the war in Ukraine is one that Russia sought, but the reality is that Neocon Grand Strategy has been pushing for war with Russia since at least 2008.

But it doesn’t end with Russia. Pompeo believes that the US should provoke war with China by recognizing the full independence of Taiwan:

So, our approach to promoting the Indo-Pacific security was to believe that our relationship with Taiwan should be reinforced at every turn. It’s become a shining example in Taiwan of democracy, democracy for Asian peoples, and a hope to all of Asia. And it is my steadfast view that our government should immediately confer diplomatic recognition to Taiwan, for it is a free and sovereign country. Our recognition of Taiwan should not hinge on what will occur. Taiwan is already an independent country. Our government should simply reflect that fact.

Moving past our current geo-strategic focus, the United States must help in building of the three lighthouses for liberty. These beacons should be centered on nations that have great strife: Ukraine, Israel, and Taiwan. They can be the hubs of new security architecture that links alliances of free nations globally, reinforcing the strengths of each member state, in time, linking these three bastions with NATO, as well as the new and expanded security framework for the Indo-Pacific will form a global alliance for freedom. This will benefit America.

“The need for this network of alliances is patent and cannot come too soon. The world has become too small for free countries to not be part of something greater, which will forestall armed conflict rather than react to it.

...

“This is rebirth. This is the future of Ukraine and of Europe and of America. The brave nation, the brave nation that now feels the pain of Russia’s onslaught, but will soon know peace, as is the promise of our Lord to be virtuous. ... The people of America are committed to seeing Ukraine emerge from this war as an undivided nation which will be a beacon to all, to show the world the primacy of freedom, determination, and of love.

Obviously this is a load of pie-in-the-sky claptrap. Ukraine—a beacon of freedom, or a beacon of Neo-Nazi craziness? Strengthen NATO—by joining with military midgets like Sweden and Finland? Even the UK, in the midst of the current war on Russia, is going forward with downsizing its military. America committed to Ukraine emerging undivided? Ukraine may not exist by the time November rolls around

Fortunately, I doubt that Pompeo will get close to the GOP nomination. Nevertheless, we have plenty to worry about between now and November. The big question will be, will the Zhou regime seek to persuade the American people to go along with this insane project of inducing a recession/depression in pursuit of the Neocon Grand Strategy, or will it just go ahead with it?