More War By Sunday?

That’s the speculation making the rounds. Much of this was addressed on Judge Nap’s Intel Group yesterday. Israel is saying they’re ready to restart the Jewish Nationalist war on Iran and they’re just waiting for the “green light” from Trump. What that most likely means is that Israel has demanded more war and that Trump asked for a hold on war until, say, Sunday. Israel granted Trump that brief reprieve and that’s what Trump’s Jewish real estate emissaries have flown to Pakistan for—to ask Iran to please surrender, or something like that. Iran refused to meet with Steve and Jared and instead reiterated something like their 10 points.

Ray McGovern raised the fear that Israel would launch a “false flag” attack on USN naval ships to try to bring the US back in at a higher level—possibly a nuclear level. Now, that would require USN collusion, since the USN would be able to tell where the attack came from. That brings in interesting speculation about the sudden resignation of the Navy Secretary. There are persistent rumors/reports that he was fired because he refused to send USN ships into the face of Iranian missiles. My initial assumption was that this could have been an oblique reference to the two US destroyers that probed the Strait of Hormuz the day after the ceasefire began, but complied with an IRGC demand to retreat or be destroyed. Now I wonder whether something deeper may be behind the firing—something like a refusal to participate in a false flag op. Pure speculation.

Place that in the context of increasing US military and intel unease with the war. We’ve all heard the reports that Raisin’ Caine told Trump to not even think about using nukes. There’s also the question of the ceasefire itself. We’re seeing reports that the US used up 45% of its prime long range air launched strike missiles, the JASSM-ERs. Another massive attack on Iran would pretty much strip the military of its most effective long range strike missile. Then there are the reports that the Gang of Eight has been getting briefings that directly contradict Trumpian claims. For example, Trump has claimed that US “mine sweepers” (I put that in quotes because we don’t have minesweepers) are clearing mines from the Strait of Hormuz—and that he has ordered them to triple their rate of clearance. The Gang of Eight was told that it would take—minimum—six months to do that in the best of circumstances. The world economy doesn’t have six months to wait. More importantly from a military and governance standpoint, the Intel Guys observed:

When you start getting these kinds of leaks—you always get leaks when there’s disagreement between what the intelligence is saying and within the policy community—and so this is this is one way, at least on this issue, the intelligence community is fighting back.

Which is an indication that key NatSec components are alarmed at the way in which Jewish Nationalists are pushing the US into a disastrous war.

The Intel Guys also got into some of the continuing coverups of failed ops and damage to the US military that are going on. Front and center, of course, was the failed attempt to snatch some of Iran’s enriched uranium. From reporting I’ve seen it seems clear that this Special Forces op was far larger than is being admitted, that it flew into an Iranian ambush, with probably far more casualties as well. Interestingly, those reports of Trump’s emotional meltdown are now reported to have occurred while that op was failing. If you think about it, that makes sense. Trump is reported to have been reduced to a screaming emotional wreck—because he feared he would go down as another Jimmy Carter (remember, Desert One?). If the official cover story that this was just a rescue op for one downed plane had been true, that reaction wouldn’t have made sense, would it? But if Trump’s reaction was to a catastrophic failure of a major op, well, that becomes more understandable.

Our friend Colonel Karen Kwiatkowski [retired USAF intel] has [questioned] whether these rescues ever took place or whether they were just a fig leaf to cover for the failed mission to extract enriched uranium. Usually when somebody’s rescued like that, they tell you who it is. You see them on television. You see them better. The president visits them in a hospital. You get them out of the zone. Nothing.

There’s also this news, which just came out. You remember that Iranian Air Force that no longer exists? This is the second report I’ve read about Iran’s air force having launched successful strikes during the lastest war.

Iran caused more extensive damage to U.S. military bases than publicly known

U.S. bases and equipment across the Middle East came under attack — including from an Iranian F-5, despite American air defenses — and repairs could cost billions of dollars.

WASHINGTON — American military bases and other equipment in the Persian Gulf region suffered extensive damage from Iranian strikes that is far worse than publicly acknowledged and is expected to cost billions of dollars to repair, according to three U.S. officials, two congressional aides and another person familiar with the damage.

Regarding those Iranian F-5s, you can learn more here:

• Islamic Republic of Iran Air Force: 35 F-5E and 15 F-5F estimated operational as of 2024;^[194] Iran originally had received a total of 127 F-5A/B by 1972 which soon began to be phased out/sold to other countries. By 1976 Iran had received a total of 181 of the improved F-5E/F/RF-A delivered to the Imperial Iranian Air Force.

• Unknown numbers of HESA Saeqeh and HESA Azarakhsh fighters derived from the F-5 design.

The last item from the Intel Roundup that I want to highlight was reported by Larry Johnson. This is something that’s been on my mind, and we fortunately have another report that goes into far more detail. Here’s what LJ said—and it plays into the “war by Sunday” reports:

And that’s the growing concern--that Iran has significantly upgraded its air defense in the last two and a half weeks thanks to China. I know the the guys that are doing the planning with respect to trying to suppress enemy air defense—they’re quite nervous.

Patty Marins is all over this today. What she doesn’t mention is that the capabilities she discusses have already been used, including in all likelihood against that F-15E that was lost near Isfahan. (By the way, if you buy into the story that Patty Marins is a young lady who lives in Rio with her cats and has a weird obsession with military matters, well …)

Patricia Marins @pati_marins64

Iran Improves Short-Range Air Defenses and Shares Data with Russia

During the 15 days of truce, Iran made improvements to some of its short-range air defenses (SHORAD), primarily the Qaem-118 (also spelled Ghaem-118), which proved effective against MALE drones.

The Qaem-118 is a system that uses three simultaneous tracking methods: radar, electro-optical, and thermal (infrared). This allows it to operate in passive mode, detecting targets without emitting radar signals.

During the 15 days of truce, Iranian engineers applied software updates to the system’s processors to improve signal filtering, after analyzing radar and heat data collected during confrontations with F-35s and MQ-9 drones in the previous weeks.

In addition, they implemented datalink integration to connect the Qaem-118 to mobile radars, receiving the target’s position via radio and activating its own sensors only in the final second before launch

Another system that will be seen more frequently is the 358 missile and its successor, the 359.

The 358 is a missile that loiters at low speed to engage drones and helicopters. During the 15-day pause, the focus was on updating the image recognition algorithm.

Since modern drones like the MQ-9 attempt to reduce their heat signature, Iran applied software corrections so that the 358’s sensor can detect smaller temperature differences against the sky background. Integration with radars was also carried out, as was done with the Qaem-118.

Now the 358 is no longer launched blindly. It has been integrated into the network of short- and medium-range mobile ground radars. The radar detects the enemy drone and sends the 358 to the exact coordinates.

The missile flies there in silence and only activates its thermal seeker once it is already in the kill zone.

Iran emphasizes that this integration happens quickly because these SHORAD systems already use compatible communication protocols.

What was accomplished in the 15 days was the physical installation of datalink kits and antennas that were already in stock but had not yet been distributed to all front-line units, which were also trained for this use.

And what changes in the 359 version?

The 359 uses the Tolou-10 turbojet engine, which makes it faster than the original 358. It can operate above 9,000 meters, enabling it to reach large aircraft such as refueling tankers and radar planes (AWACS) that fly at altitudes the 358 could not efficiently reach.

In addition, it has a range of up to 150 km and has abandoned the complex laser proximity sensors of the 358 in favor of a more powerful warhead and more modern thermal imaging guidance systems focused on ignoring countermeasures (flares).

Theoretically, this means the repeated scenes of aircraft releasing flares and evading missiles seen in the first phase of the war should no longer occur. We’ll see.

All these improvements and the increase in deployed units may be what the Iranians are calling the “little surprise.”

At a minimum, this could force the USraeli air forces to operate from longer distances from Iranian air space.

Larry Johnson addresses some of the bigger picture today. This article also helps explain why the US NatSec complex is increasingly hinky about running through even more munitions in fruitless efforts to subjugate Iran:

Russia Prepares to Fight Europe… White House Setting the Stage to Renew Attack on Iran

Responding to European statements that Europe must be prepared to fight Russia in the next 3-5 Year Window, Lavrov stated bluntly that the EU is mobilizing for a direct military confrontation with Russia. In this strategy, Ukraine is being used as a “battering ram” to bleed Russia dry and buy Europe the time it needs to fully rearm its industrial base over the next few years.

The Minister emphasized that without NATO satellite intelligence and Western officers on the ground, Kiev would be paralyzed. This is no longer a “proxy” conflict; it is an open war against Russia.