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TomA's avatar

The Soviet Union collapsed in 1991 and a decade of misery followed. Then along came Putin and he needed 2 decades to rebuild Russia from the ashes. This could not have happened without the decade of misery. It had to get bad enough and become existential before the average Russian could be motivated to accept the necessary changes. The same is now true for both the US and Europe. We have to hit a hard bottom that lasts for years before meaningful change can occur. This used to be known as the "business cycle." The dollar's status as the world's reserve currency allowed politicians to endlessly spend beyond our means thereby postponing these corrections. Those chickens are now coming home to roost, and the longer it takes to crash, the lower and longer the bottom will be. Putin knows this better than anyone having lived it in the first person. Trump will continue to bluff until called. That is what happened in Turkey on Thursday. Bluff called.

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Alex's avatar

Saudi and UAE oil together are only 15% of China's oil imports, less than what they get from Russia. I'd argue that the bilateral trade using currency swaps, and development of non-US-controlled clearing systems, are a much bigger threat to USD dominance (read, it removes the option of weaponising it).

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