More On All The Dead And Missing People--KD Wants To Remind You

Today I’ll be taking some mental health time, but …

For some months now I’ve been paying attention to employment figures. You’ll notice that in the two recent posts based on the wild rise in death claims I mention that mortality stats are among those few stats that are very hard to hide—and that smart people have been telling us to pay attention to those stats.

Back in October Karl Denninger wrote a post that made a big impression on me. That post—along with the comments of others who cover or are actually in the epidemiology field—was a real heads up. Today, noting the attention the story about working age deaths is drawing, KD mentions that he told us to expect something of this sort and links to the October post. One of the weaknesses of Substack is the lack of a real search function—I had that post very much in mind, but didn’t have the time to find it.

What you’ll notice is that KD is working off employment stats, but those stats lead him to related stats that nobody pays much attention to—but which were a flashing red light for those who understood their significance:

Hiring Manager: 'I Can't Find Employees!'*

KD starts from the official “unemployment” numbers for September, 2021—so, end of Quarter 3. What those numbers showed was a big miss in employment, yet a drop in unemployment. How did that work?

The decline in the unemployment rate was not due to people "finding jobs."  It was due to over half a million of them deciding to walk off and not care.  That's a lot of people, and it's the second consecutive month after a strong of mostly-good news in that regard since January.  Last month also say a large (1.1 million) "walk off" rate.

But then he digs deeper and examines the longer term “annual run rate,” which is:

the total number of not-institutionalized people in the United States over the age of 16.

That number has been dropping hugely. KD lists the ways for that to happen:

1. Expatriate yourself and leave the US permanently.

2. Go to prison (you come back on it when you get out.)

3. Go to a nursing home (Reminder: The median life expectancy on admission to one is six months, after which you do the next.)

4. DIE.

In other words, you don’t get off that list simply because you decide to drop out of the workforce—there have to be much bigger social phenomena going on to account for the change in the annual run rate that you’re about to see. This has nothing to do with employment per se—it has to do with total population:

Here it is going back to the middle of 2020:

This number has run around 2 million on an annualized run-rate for a very long time.  It is somewhat responsive to economic booms and busts with a 16-17 year lag; more people make children, but when they do it takes 16-17 years for them to show up in this figure.  16-17 years ago was literally the best of times; birth rates were rising as we came out of the Tech Wreck.  Indeed in 2018 in December the annualized run rate was about 2.5 million.  It was in December of 2019 too -- right in front of *****.  And in December of 2020 it was back to more-or-less baseline at 2.1 million.

So where did the 1.2 million people that should have been added to the workforce over the last year go?

They didn't go anywhere.  They were added.

This means the real question is who got subtracted?

The power of uncorrelated data sets is that the people who would **** with you through large-scale, institutional lying always forget about the uncorrelated data sets they do not control and thus are "out of their sphere of consciousness."

January of next year will be the adjustment month, as it always is.  But these estimates are what they are and if they're anywhere near accurate starting in February lots of people started dying who should not have died because the usual rate of death doesn't move these figures.

Read that last sentence again: These figures, which simply present the total working age (and non-institutionalized) population, are not moved by employment figures—at all. There are ways for that number to change, but those other factors (retirement due to age, imprisonment) are either unaffected on a year to year basis (all else being equal) or unlikely to be large enough to make a dent in the total (i.e., we know for a fact that there has been no rise in mass incarceration—quite the reverse). So KD is right: By far the most likely factor that changes that number was an increase in deaths.

My point? The story about what life insurance companies are seeing is not some blip on the radar screen. The only mass event in the last year—since we’re told that these aren’t Covid deaths—is the mass injection campaign.