More Middle East Fallout--Figurative, So Far

This morning I saw a brief video—and I’ve lost track of it—that showed an Iranian ballistic missile in its final downward trajectory before striking its target in Israel. The missile took evasive action—you could see a little jog in its flight path, with a resumption of the original flight path after the jog. If that doesn’t scare the p*ss out of every person, not only in Israel but in the entire region, I can’t imagine what would. That includes all US sailors aboard ships within range of Iranian missiles and, certainly, all US military personnel at bases in the region.

That message was quite apparently not lost on Jordan and Saudi Arabia. Regarding Jordan, there’s only one target in Jordan that would be worth wasting a missile on—or even just a drone—and that would be King Abdullah himself. He clearly gets that now. The Saudis were also eager to clarify certain matters today:

King Abdullah Warns Israel He Won't Let Jordan Become "The Theater Of A Regional War"

The threat of a broader Middle East-wide war looms as Israel mulls retaliation for the massive weekend Iran drone and missile attack, but so far on Tuesday regional actors are strongly signaling they want to see a return to the status quo. 

Saudi Arabia has rejected reports that its military shot down some of the inbound drones and missiles launched from Iran Saturday night. "There is no official website that published a statement about Saudi participation in intercepting attacks against Israel," Saudi government sources told Al Arabiya, after Israeli media claims circulated. 

Jordan too is seeking to present itself as a neutral power in the conflict, despite confirming over the weekend that it did shoot down some projectiles sent from Iran that flew into its airspace during the earlier attack. 

…

On Tuesday, Jordan's King Abdullah II weighed in, saying he does not want to see his country become "the theater of a regional war" following the intercepts. 

"The king reinforced the nation's commitment to upholding its security and sovereignty above all other considerations. He stressed Jordan's aim was to safeguard its own sovereignty rather than defend Israel," according to a regional outlet.

Still, Jordan's Foreign Minister Ayman Safadi had some strong words for Israel and the international community, saying external powers should stop Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu from "stealing" attention away from Gaza as he mulls escalation with a retaliatory attack aimed at Tehran.

Even the Biden administration is strongly signaling to Israel that things must return to the status quo, even as threatening words continued to be issued between Tehran and Tel Aviv.

On the diplomatic front, each side is seeking to get the backing of the international community, as Al Jazeera writes:

Israel has launched a “diplomatic offensive” against Iran, calling for sanctions against the Islamic republic.

Israeli Foreign Minister Israel Katz said on Tuesday that he has contacted 32 countries calling on them to impose sanctions against Tehran. The move comes as Israel mulls a military response to Iran’s attack on Israel.

But Iran has continually lambasted the United Nations Security Council for failing to stop the escalating conflict, given there was no formal condemnation of the initial April 1st Israeli attack on Iran's embassy in Damascus.

It would be perfectly reasonable for Jordan to want to protect its own sovereignty—including attempting to exclude overflights by Iranian missiles bound for Israel. On the other hand, opening Jordanian air space to US, UK, FR, and Israeli military jets might not have been the smartest way for Jordan to express its concerns about becoming “the theater of a regional war.” Life can be very difficult for minor players in geopolitics, which dictates great caution. Even at Abdullah’s age, he can still learn.

It’s possible that the Saudis were playing a bit of a game with their words. They rejected any notion that they participated in “intercepting attacks against Israel,” but that doesn’t exclude the possibility that KSA opened its air space to the military aircraft of other nations. Of course, the US has air bases within KSA already—not sure how that would work. OTOH, however you slice the Saudi statement, they clearly want to stay on the right side of their new BRICS partners. My guess is that there was some arrangement with Iran and possibly with Russia, too. A reasonable bottom line from this is that I can’t think of any nation between the Mediterranean and Iran that would freely grant overflight permission to any planes/missiles headed toward Iran, and that would greatly complicate further military actions.

There’s been a lot of loose talk about what form Israeli retaliation could take—if it happens. I’d be very cautious in that regard. For example, there have been people suggesting that such retaliation could target Iranian partners or allies in the region—Hezbollah, Yemen, Iraqi militias. Iran might not sit back and do nothing, but it’s also possible that such action could lead to renewed attacks on US bases. There are a lot of moving parts here.

For a good overall discussion (although I strongly deprecate his dumb J6 remarks) listen to Chas Freeman and Danny Davis:

Can Iran Withstand Biden s Iron Clad Support for Israel? Chas Freeman, fmr U.S. ambassador

It’s worth your time.